ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Finally, I might be able to get on board with the intensification phase...Last satellite shows wrapping around with the reds that I haven't seen since I awoke this morning.... Perhaps this is what Derek is worried about

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg


Doesn't that look like a fetus? Look before it switches to a new frame...

[BigB0882]

Recon data suggesting a more NNW-like movement in the past 90 minutes or so. Lets see where the VDM is.

Very very interesting and not good for me!

[terrapintransit]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... on-in.html

It seems the eye is very close to appearing..

[KWT]

Convection wrapping right around however note on the IR to the SE of the burst the cloud tops are warming...the eye is clearing out whilst convection deepens in the eyewall...Gustav is strengthening again on its run to landfall...

[Ivanhater]

This is going to be a bad night for me and my neighbors on the central gulfcoast

[feederband]

Finally, I might be able to get on board with the intensification phase...Last satellite shows wrapping around with the reds that I haven't seen since I awoke this morning.... Perhaps this is what Derek is worried about

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

I could be wrong but thats what I thought he may be looking at as well..

[crazycajuncane]

Tropical showers on the local doppler radar. That's in Lafayette, LA and we are a long way from the center of Mr. Gustav!

[coriolis]

Earlier someone posted a link to the USGS water watch site.

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/gustav/?#

If you click on some of those circles it gives you a popup with data in it. If you click the link in the popup it takes you to a page that gives graphical data for water levels. For instance:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=073802338

USGS 073802338 IWW @ I-510 Bridge (Paris Rd) at New Orleans, LA
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/data/img/USGS.073802338.01.00065.2008.20080824.20080831.0.0..gif

It gives you a graph of the actual water level under that bridge. You can see the effect of the tides over the last few days. This would give an accurate indication of the storm surge when it gets there. It does have a delay of a couple hours though.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, come back a couple hours later and find EXPLOSION, this Sat imagery is very concerning. Looks to be deepening right before Landfall, not good. Also the more NNW movement would follow what Gustav has shown when he is sub 955mb so far. I think the deeper storm steps into the ridge harder.

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... on-in.html

It seems the eye is very close to appearing..

Yes...this is the best it's looked today, IMO. It's really getting its act together. Wouldn't be surprised to see some modest strengthening before landfall.

[canetracker]

NNW motion...thats really bad news for N.O if thats the truth, surely we aren't looking at a near dead on hit on the city?

Seriously gotta hate this NNW movement!!! Our local mets are staying optimistic in regards to intensity.

[Dave C]

That deep convection has obscured the eye from view. I got home from work at 5pm and just the last 2 hrs has produced much better symetric system. must sleep though, 5am start to the day awaits me

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[Downdraft]

Ship 27.6 -85.6 C6CL6 measuring 78mph winds 115.75 nautical miles northeast of the center. Also reporting 11 meter waves every 2 seconds.

Ship is 800 feet long....almost 15kts speed when fully loaded....11 meter waves could be higher than the main deck if loaded down.
http://www.vulcanmaterials.com/ship/MV_ ... _Specs.pdf

Bet the 33 man crew is peddling away as fast as they can....hopefully successful.

What's more interesting is hurricane force over 100 miles from the center and two, buoys ahead of the storm show 84 degree water.

[terrapintransit]

Look @ the greens appearing around the center.

[jasons2k]

*cough cough*

Can I bump this again in a few hours? J/K, but really in all seriousness, some really questioned this earlier today and I think it's clear now that Gutsav is getting his act together.

I think people are jumping on the weakening bandwagon WAY TOO prematurely and this could be very dangerous.

If you look at the satellite presentation, Gutsav has clearly been undergoing a period of reorganization after dealing with the shear, and the winds have relaxed.

It's very very clear that the outflow pattern is imporving and the shear will be less of a hinderance now. The eyewall is reorganizing. Once the eyewall can fully close-off and become more circular, expect the pressure to drop and winds to pick-up again.

By later tonight, I suspect Gustav will look much better again. Not as strong as yesterday as we once feared, but it's definitely putting the pieces together to make another run at intensifying. Nobody should be celebrating or letting their guard down yet, I could not emphazise this enough right now. Be a little patient.

[CronkPSU]

first time we have seen green in that picture today isn't it?

[Dean4Storms]

Derek, what is the chance that this goes east of NO by any degree???

[cheezyWXguy]

ah ha! the legendary fist of intenisification.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As long as it is moving 14-16+ mph, then tchp is not as important. Cat4s can form over the north Atlantic at 30-32 north...In Alex 2004 was a pretty high north strong cat3. If this stalled then yes the northern gulf would slowly weaken it, but if it keeps moving up it should be able to strengthen. It has to do with more about shear and dry air.