ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[hiflyer]

Real rough on the first radar images show about a 315 degree track....or pretty much what the NHC advertised...passing SW of the city...and a little over 18 kts....
as per the Eglin AFB radar.

NOLA radar says more like 312.

[TideJoe]

This is going to be a bad night for me and my neighbors on the central gulfcoast

If he doesn't get back on a NW track soon, lots of people are going to be surprised when they wake up to Hurricane Force winds when the news outlets have all been screaming LA (and rightly so).

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Slides of images of damages in Cuba:

http://www.telemundo51.com/slideshow/no ... etail.html

http://www.telemundo51.com/slideshow/no ... etail.html

Hurakan, Did your family come through the storm ok?

~Beth~

[ConvergenceZone]

this is the best it's looked today, IMO. It's really getting its act together. Wouldn't be surprised to see some modest strengthening before landfall.

PhillyWX, that last satellite photo you had is about an hour and 30 minutes old. It says 21:15. The latest I have is 22:45

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

first time we have seen green in that picture today isn't it?

I am not sure. I really haven't been watching much today. After staying up all night last night I spent a good part of the day today sleeping! lol But I should be good for my 3rd all nighter in a row tonight!

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 23:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2008
Storm Name: Gustav (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 23:03:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°43'N 87°29'W (26.7167N 87.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 258 miles (415 km) to the S (184°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,701m (8,862ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 79kts (From the NE at ~ 90.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:00:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:08:20Z

[RL3AO]

Heres that possible NNW drift I was mentioning.

[Stormcenter]

It still does not look anything like it did 24 hours ago (not saying anyone said that it did)
so I don't think we have to worried about that.
I still think it's fight dry air intrusion. JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

Its really only a touch east of the NHC track mind you RL3AO but obviously at this stage small wobbles do make fairly big differences.

[WmE]

Eyewall is closed now. The eye is still elliptical though.

[ConvergenceZone]

In my opinion, with the cool waters coming up. I would think the intensification phase must occur in the next 6 hours, after that, it will be holding it's own before some slight weakening due to the cooler waters...

[dixiebreeze]

Its really only a touch east of the NHC track mind you RL3AO but obviously at this stage small wobbles do make fairly big differences.

That classic east wobble at the 11th hour.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

It still does not look anything like it did 24 hours ago (not saying anyone said that)
so I don't think we have to worried about that.
I still think it's fight dry air intrusion. JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

If you ask me thats a fight its quickly winning now! Eye is completely closed as of the latest VDM just released a couple minutes ago and the pressure continues to fall now down to 953mb. The winds may not have increased yet however with the pressure falling its just a matter of time before the winds start responding!

[Noles2006]

It still does not look anything like it did 24 hours ago (not saying anyone said that)
so I don't think we have to worried about that.
I still think it's fight dry air intrusion. JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Stormcenter - let's see how Gustav looks in an hour or so... I've been on the "not going to strengthen" bandwagon all day... and recent satellite pictures, coupled with the recon report of a closed eyewall, have me very disturbed right now...

I think the intensifying is leading to Gustav moving more NNW as of late...

[superfly]

Deep convection completely surrounds the warmer center now. I don't think it has the heat potential to deepen rapidly but I do expect steady strengthening to a high cat 3/low cat 4 now. The worst part is with the speed it's going at, it may landfall as a strengthening cane.

[Dean4Storms]

With the accelerated speed and deepening I'm concerned that the wobble could become a trend.

[jlauderdal]

i wouldn't want to be evacuating with those bands rolling onshore

[TideJoe]

Its really only a touch east of the NHC track mind you RL3AO but obviously at this stage small wobbles do make fairly big differences.

That classic east wobble at the 11th hour.

Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina all had the 11th hour 30-50 miles wobble.

[KWT]

Got a nice little line moving into the New Orleans soon. I think once that big band moves in, we are gonig to need to see tornado watches go up for that big band.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Its really only a touch east of the NHC track mind you RL3AO but obviously at this stage small wobbles do make fairly big differences.

It may not be very far off but I was listening to a press conference this afternoon and they were saying that just a little to the east could mean the difference between minor flooding and Major flooding for parts of N.O.

[Tom8]