ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Blown Away]

[/quote]

If Gus follows those model tracks it seems he will be @50-60 miles from N.O., will they get sustained hurricane force winds? Sorry posted this in the models thread by accident.

[weatherman21]

From what I have observed from the satellite images, Hurricane Gustav is acquiring intense convection on the north side of the low pressure center and the core is becoming better defined. Below are a few images from Unidata's Integrated Data Viewer:
Water Vapor Satellite Band at 22:55Z:


Infrared Satellite Band at 22:55Z:


Infrared Satellite Band; Zoomed at 22:55Z:

[dixiebreeze]

I really worry that Mississippi may be in the mix now.

[loro-rojo]

It looks much more impressive than it has all day.

[tallywx]

112 kts NE quad flight level winds, so she's a solid cat 3 now no matter how you cut it.

[KWT]

Deep convection blowing up in the eyewall, going to be so very interesting to watch in the next few hours and whether it holds the closed eyewall, if it does then we are going to see some strengthening happening.

[coriolis]

High tide will be right after noon tomorrow

[Hyperstorm]

*cough cough*

Can I bump this again in a few hours? J/K, but really in all seriousness, some really questioned this earlier today and I think it's clear now that Gutsav is getting his act together.

I think people are jumping on the weakening bandwagon WAY TOO prematurely and this could be very dangerous.

If you look at the satellite presentation, Gutsav has clearly been undergoing a period of reorganization after dealing with the shear, and the winds have relaxed.

It's very very clear that the outflow pattern is imporving and the shear will be less of a hinderance now. The eyewall is reorganizing. Once the eyewall can fully close-off and become more circular, expect the pressure to drop and winds to pick-up again.

By later tonight, I suspect Gustav will look much better again. Not as strong as yesterday as we once feared, but it's definitely putting the pieces together to make another run at intensifying. Nobody should be celebrating or letting their guard down yet, I could not emphazise this enough right now. Be a little patient.

As I mentioned earlier, the wind shear forecasts showed wind shear decreasing some during this time frame until early tomorrow. Hence, Gustav is taking advantage of the moment by showing an increase in FL winds that FINALLY support minimal CATEGORY 3 strength (It was clearly a Category 2 all day today, unofficially).

There is still shear there, though, so don't get too excited. I do think it has a chance to strengthen some, but should weaken again as it moves closer to the shore as wind shear is expected to increase again...

[dixiebreeze]

Deep convection blowing up in the eyewall, going to be so very interesting to watch in the next few hours and whether it holds the closed eyewall, if it does then we are going to see some strengthening happening.

Yep. And the better the symmetry the more NNE and NE he appears.

[O Town]

[wxman57]

No deviation from previous course. I just measured a 2-hr movement toward 302 degrees at 20 kts. Still racing along. That's heading for western Terrebonne parish, just as consensus models are saying.

6-hr movement 303 degrees at 16 kts.

[njweather]

Yikes...

Will interaction will land affect this significantly?

[BigB0882]

I really worry that Mississippi may be in the mix now.

Certainly not out of the question but it looks like it would have to head almost due N for that to happen. Not that it can't but I would think it is unlikely with the H to the East.

[wxman57]

High tide will be right after noon tomorrow

I checked the Vermilion Bay/Atchafalaya Bay tides for tomorrow and there's only about an 8 inch difference between high and low tide, maybe less.

[Stormcenter]

Folks this is still 115-120mph (nothing to sneeze at) hurricane it "should" look impressive.
I believe it's pretty safe to say it won't be what you saw yesterday.

[BigB0882]

High tide will be right after noon tomorrow

Is that good? I think it will make landfall 4-6 hours prior to noon.

[Sabanic]

I really worry that Mississippi may be in the mix now.

Certainly not out of the question but it looks like it would have to head almost due N for that to happen. Not that it can't but I would think it is unlikely with the H to the East.

Sorry but MS has been in the mix. They are on the N and E side of a hurricane with a very large wind field. Storm surge and Wind are both going to be bad for them even if Gus is going NW. We'll have very nasty weather here and we are 50 miles east of Biloxi alone.

[AlabamaDave]

This is going to be a bad night for me and my neighbors on the central gulfcoast

If he doesn't get back on a NW track soon, lots of people are going to be surprised when they wake up to Hurricane Force winds when the news outlets have all been screaming LA (and rightly so).

People need to listen to the NHC and not these TV goons. And the TV goons need to stop making armchair pronouncements in these types of situations. Most of them do not have the analytical skills or education of the NHC mets who are forecasting the storm.

Last time I checked, there is a Hurricane Warning all the way to the AL/FL state line. No one in the warning area should be too surprised by hurricane force winds. There's a reason that warning has been posted.

[dixiebreeze]

Listened to Gov. Bobby Jindal's summary of evac, etc. and what a vast difference this event is from Katrina when everyone was running in 10 directions with feet nailed in the floor.

Prayers up for all those in the north gulf coast.

[Tom8]