ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

No deviation from previous course. I just measured a 2-hr movement toward 302 degrees at 20 kts. Still racing along. That's heading for western Terrebonne parish, just as consensus models are saying.

6-hr movement 303 degrees at 16 kts.

We have recon out there confirming the movement which was NNW from the last drop..just a wobble im sure but Im gonna agree with recon

[terrapintransit]

Pressure down to 951.

[dixiebreeze]

"Sorry but MS has been in the mix. They are on the N and E side of a hurricane with a very large wind field. Storm surge and Wind are both going to be bad for them even if Gus is going NW. We'll have very nasty weather here and we are 50 miles east of Biloxi alone."

Actually, I was referring to landfall. Yes, Mississippi, Alabama and the Panhandlel will be on the "dirty" side of Gus.

[alicia83]

I left to take a shower & wash my hair. I'm amazed at the difference in the storm now. I'm still learning, and would still like to know if D-Max will have any effect on Gus. I'm holding everyone in the path of this storm in my thoughts, and hope all of you keep safe!

[KWT]

It doesn't need to be what it was before stormcenter to be a very severe issue...

[mathwhizz]

XTRAP motion says it's going just west of New Orleans. It better bend to the west soon or New Orleans is going to get hammered.

20 or 30 miles east or west will probably determine if New Orleans has major flooding or minor flooding.

[Bunkertor]

I really worry that Mississippi may be in the mix now.

Word ! This is what i am thinking right now...

[Normandy]

See, my greatest fear is coming true. I really wished it would have peaked 12-13 hours ago. Couple of points that prove this might be going into an RI phase:

10 C temperature differential between eye and eyewall.
2 mb drop in 30 mins
3 mb drop in the last hour
Closing off of the eyewall

I don't know how strong it will get, but it for sure WONT weaken from this point on.

[tolakram]

I left to take a shower & wash my hair. I'm amazed at the difference in the storm now. I'm still learning, and would still like to know if D-Max will have any effect on Gus. I'm holding everyone in the path of this storm in my thoughts, and hope all of you keep safe!

From what I've heard no, hurricanes are not affected by dmin/max like smaller storms and disturbances are.

[KWT]

Wxman57, recon suggesting this has wobbled prehaps closer to 320-325 over the last hour, long term motion probably isn't that of course but either recon didnt quite nail the center (in which case its stronger then estimated...) or its wobbled abot 10-15 degrees to the north of where it was recently...

We need to see whether the next center fix shows it back on its previous motion.

[Stormcenter]

See, my greatest fear is coming true. I really wished it would have peaked 12-13 hours ago. Couple of points that prove this might be going into an RI phase:

10 C temperature differential between eye and eyewall.
2 mb drop in 30 mins
3 mb drop in the last hour
Closing off of the eyewall

I don't know how strong it will get, but it for sure WONT weaken from this point on.

There are "Cooler" (if want to call it that) waters ahead so I would not expect much more strengthening but who knows with these
things.

[dixiebreeze]

Not too far from ground zero now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[alicia83]

Thanks, Tolakram.

[KWT]

Yep stormcenter cooler waters, but still warm enough to support steady strengthening of a cat-3, its when you see a cat-5 try to enter those waters that they tend to fall apart somewhat.

[Hurricane Cheese]

I think those who were calling for a Cat 2 landfall might have to be eating crow here very shortly. This has all the setup of an intesifying cyclone. The Pressure is down to 951, the eye is closed, recon has found increased winds.

The current movement could have landfall just prior to dawn tomorrow, not a lot of time for it to weaken over the waters of less heat content. This storm is moving faster than Katrina did.

Folks, I do believe now that this WILL be a major hurricane upon landfall. Prayers from the Cheese State to all you down there in it's path.

[tolakram]

See, my greatest fear is coming true. I really wished it would have peaked 12-13 hours ago. Couple of points that prove this might be going into an RI phase:

10 C temperature differential between eye and eyewall.
2 mb drop in 30 mins
3 mb drop in the last hour
Closing off of the eyewall

I don't know how strong it will get, but it for sure WONT weaken from this point on.

There are "Cooler" (if want to call it that) waters ahead so I would expect much more strengthening but who knows with these
things.

From what I understand not really cooler but shallow which shows up as having less heat content. It seems to me a quickly moving storm might not have a problem with that.

[shah8]

ok...

gustav is scaring me now.

Whatever the winds might be, the sheer *enthusiasm* it is showing for convection is remarkable. More and more likely that it's going to make a run for cat4 status near or at landfall.

[WxGuy1]

See, my greatest fear is coming true. I really wished it would have peaked 12-13 hours ago. Couple of points that prove this might be going into an RI phase:

10 C temperature differential between eye and eyewall.
2 mb drop in 30 mins
3 mb drop in the last hour
Closing off of the eyewall

I don't know how strong it will get, but it for sure WONT weaken from this point on.

But there are things that make RI much less likely:

20-30 kt vertical shear over the center
Steadily decreasing TCHP / ocean heat content from now till landfall

Sure, strange things can happen, but I find it much more likely that Gustav will hold steady or perhaps intensify slowly/moderately than strengthen rapidly. You're points may be correlated with previous RI events, but they certainly don't "prove" that RI will happen (or is likely).

[Downdraft]

I left to take a shower & wash my hair. I'm amazed at the difference in the storm now. I'm still learning, and would still like to know if D-Max will have any effect on Gus. I'm holding everyone in the path of this storm in my thoughts, and hope all of you keep safe!

From what I've heard no, hurricanes are not affected by dmin/max like smaller storms and disturbances are.

Convection in a tropical system is not dependent on diurnal (daytime) heating of the land. Night time will mean nothing to this system only cutting it's core off from water will degrade it and unfortunately that doesn't happen till after landfall usually.

[eyesurvivor]

Prayers also for the people that are stuck in traffic, fleeing the storm. Lots of bad things can happen there also.