ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Speaking of recon. When are they going in?

Sunday.

[Scorpion]

Euro takes out South FL.

[fci]

Yikes.. and from what the models are saying.. headed for Florida.

Has the model trend changed since this morning?

Last I saw they had the storm going south or southwest through The Bahamas and not to Florida just yet.

NHC 11:00 AM track had her missing Florida

[Evil Jeremy]

Yikes.. and from what the models are saying.. headed for Florida.

Has the model trend changed since this morning?

Last I saw they had the storm going south or southwest through The Bahamas and not to Florida just yet.

NHC 11:00 AM track had her missing Florida

It slowly is changing. The latest model runs are not showing as big of a turn to the south, and are bringing it back north sooner. They also do not take Hanna as south as before. The NHC cone is actually south of the guidance now. The only model still showing a big push to the south is the GFDL.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

[gatorcane]

FCI its changing (not in favor of the Bahamas and FL at the moment).

See models thread.

Euro slams south florida yet again.

[Scorpion]

NOGAPS slams us too.

[tgenius]

So on the current runs, EURO (which has consistently said it will), ECMWF, and now NOGAPS are onboard with a SFL hit? I'm not liking that much.

[lbvbl]

how often do these models update?

[meteorologyman]

It doesn't seem like the models don't know where this thing goes after the turn towards south. So don't worry about the cone if it goes over area until it becomes consistant.

If there is still no consistancy 3 days before landfall then I would be concerened. But until then take it easy

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A little bit unstacked, but I would say 55 knots based on that convection.

[Evil Jeremy]

how often do these models update?

Every 6 hours. The current cycle is over, and will begin at 5:30 with the GFS

[Blown Away]

FCI its changing (not in favor of the Bahamas and FL at the moment).

See models thread.

Euro slams south florida yet again.

Yep, less of a SW dip will bring Hanna closer to SFL sooner than the previous NHC forecast.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Evil Jeremy]

A little bit unstacked, but I would say 55 knots based on that convection.

65 MPH is really high. If anything, I think it is a little weaker than earlier. The shear is kicking in again, and it looks like the LLC is moving faster than the convection.

[canes04]

Stay away Hanna, the Dolphins/Jets game is next Sunday in Miami.

Good luck and God Bless everyone in the path of these two storms!!

[Evil Jeremy]

The trend this run has been westward with less of a dip to the southwest. In fact, only the CMC, GFDL, and UKMET models bring Hanna below 22N, and the CMC brings the storm NW right after that. Most models are not having this cross below 23N in 4-5 days. I expect a NW shift in the 4-5 day cone at 5 PM.

[Jinkers]

Stay away Hanna, the Dolphins/Jets game is next Sunday in Miami.

Good luck and God Bless everyone in the path of these two storms!!

And I have tickets--stay away Hanna!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...

You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.

[gatorcane]

Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...

You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.

no major hurricane has moved into Broward County from the Atlantic in history (which goes back only about 150 years) --

of course it doesn't mean it could happen.

Palm Beach Counties and Miami-Dade have several majors from the east (many more hurricanes from the South though)

[Evil Jeremy]

Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...

You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.

no major hurricane has moved into Broward County from the Atlantic in history --

of course it doesn't mean it could happen.

Palm Beach Counties and Miami-Dade have several majors from the east (many more hurricanes from the South though)

It does not have to be from Broward County. Wilma came in from the other side of the state, and gave us solid Cat 1 winds.

[gatorcane]

Latest: Hanna is a large system.