ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txwatcher91]

Anyone notice how large an area this covers? This must be what the Euro was hinting at a few days ago.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the NE turn indicated on radar is an illusion. The 12Z sounding from KMIA (Miami International Airport) indicates ridging remains in place at the low to mid levels, with westerly wind vectors aloft at the upper levels. Streamline analysis at H5-H85 does not support a long term NE turn as well. If you step back from the screen, you can clearly see that the center is nearly stationary on radar and has not displayed any significant NE movement.

Landfall near Naples, FL remains on track...

H5-H85:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

H7-H85:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

I think it's time to inject some logic amid the "NE turn" and "977 mb" talk...

I must be the "lone voice" stating that the prospects of a SW Florida landfall near Naples remain good.

MiamiensisWx, I know that scientifically, Fay should go to Naples, but Fay has proven that you need to expect the unexpected in the tropics. You cant count this out.

On the other hand, the Dave Bernard 977 MB thing is bogus.

[wxman57]

Center clearly visible on Key West radar near 24.9N/81.4W. It rotated east for a bit and is now moving northward again. It's about 25 miles from the SW tip of the peninsula. Heaviest squalls are 40 miles NW of the center.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The center, located NE of Key West, seems to be moving nearly due north right now. There was probably a brief NE jog earlier, but I believe it has since come to an end. A Naples landfall still looks to be on track, IMO.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

steve lyons basically was saying how the upper high was thankfully not over the storm and that the trough that was digging down into northern gulf was relatively dry and this was putting the "lid on more furious strengthening" .

[KWT]

Well its possible Miami that we still get a hit around there, I'm not going to make any calls till I see what recon has to say about the center fix, however the center does appear on radar to have drifted NE recently and wind shifts indicate its probably east of Key west as well now.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

This looks like a classical radar illusion to me. There may be a slight NE wobble, but it's miniscule, and the long term movement is NNW.

I haven't seen any significant NE movement (that has not been a brief wobble) in my eyes.

[NEXRAD]

Well, this is now one of the most bizarre looking tropical storms I've ever seen. It almost looks more like a derecho.

- Jay

[Cryomaniac]

some forms of media are considered "entertainment" and can say what they wish or lie , i remember this was fought for by fox news a few years back in court, and they won, but not sure how this translates into local news channels, but there might not be any liability there either

I don't see how a news channel should be allowed to get away with that. The very fact that Fox news won that case amazes me.

Oh well, back to Fay, spurious reporting aside.

[tolakram]

Well the old center just got ejected to the NE and it appears a new one might be forming west or northwest of Key West. That would explain the wind shift back to the southwest, indicating the center is north / northwest of Key West.

wxman, does this not make sense?

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

Is that an ULL in the atlantic moving west going to have any effect on Fay ?

[caneman]

MODS up please take care if these sneak political comments. Plenty of other news stations with different slants that do the same thing.

[Shockwave]

Well, this is now one of the most bizarre looking tropical storms I've ever seen. It almost looks more like a derecho.

- Jay

I agree. I hope I never see another tropical wave turn into Fay again, but it will happen somewhere down the line.

[KWT]

We really need recon to fix the center, that will give us an idea of true motion and whether any NE motion earlier was just an illusion. Also once we have a fix we can get a better idea of the heading based on radar. I personally now see due north at a very slow rate.

[edbri871]

MiamiensisWx, I know that scientifically, Fay should go to Naples, but Fay has proven that you need to expect the unexpected in the tropics. You cant count this out.

With all due respect, the NHC has predicted the same path for the last 60 hours or so almost.

[shah8]

RL3A0...

Logic went out the window a long time ago.

When a 'cane does what she did last night...stop hard move *east* into Cuba and chase the northern end, like what Fay did last night...

Logic ain't that much of a help.

Tho' I gotta say... *I* knew 977mbs would have been...rather extreme strengthening. There is no excuse of that weatherman to say that on the air like he did.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This will make landfall on its current track about 30-50 nmi south of Naples, jmo. But this system is very disorganized and hard to track, that is how fay has always been.

[tolakram]

[cpdaman]

MODS up please take care if these sneak political comments. Plenty of other news stations with different slants that do the same thing.

exactly , many do, but you are the one taking it politically , i could care less for lots of channels so relax, deep breath

extremely tuff to get radar fix from center for me wxman, i know you said look for center on radar but their are so many meso cyclones

recon will be in center within half hour IMO

[Sanibel]

If the High is still in place then the mid level circulation is disrupted enough to prevent serious strengthening. Interesting. Still on N-NNE track then. No Irene then.

Thanks for straightening that out Miamiensiswx.