ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

MiamiensisWx, I know that scientifically, Fay should go to Naples, but Fay has proven that you need to expect the unexpected in the tropics. You cant count this out.

With all due respect, the NHC has predicted the same path for the last 60 hours or so almost.

They have done a good job over all. But they are not perfect and we should question the logic at times.

[caneman]

MODS up please take care if these sneak political comments. Plenty of other news stations with different slants that do the same thing.

exactly , many do, but you are the one taking it politically , i could care less for lots of channels so relax, deep breath

extremely tuff to get radar fix from center for me wxman, i know you said look for center on radar but their are so many meso cyclones

recon will be in center within half hour IMO

IMO-no place for that on this jammed board. Hard enough to get thru these posts as it is.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

1004mb pressure with still atleast 10 if not 20 more minutes away from where the center should be

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

Well the old center just got ejected to the NE and it appears a new one might be forming west or northwest of Key West. That would explain the wind shift back to the southwest, indicating the center is north / northwest of Key West.

wxman, does this not make sense?


I see what you mean lamost looks like it is trying to reform the the NW of Key west

[NEXRAD]

Based on Key West and Miami doppler radar, Fay's center has relocated to near latitude 24.95N, longitude 81.6W.

I would not consider this to be movement, but rather some sort of a center jump.

- Jay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well the old center just got ejected to the NE and it appears a new one might be forming west or northwest of Key West. That would explain the wind shift back to the southwest, indicating the center is north / northwest of Key West.

wxman, does this not make sense?


I see what you mean lamost looks like it is trying to reform the the NW of Key west

Yeah surface obs shows that this is now the center. Could of just brought its self another hour or two over water.

[cpdaman]

anyone check out the PODCAST update on the nhc site

7 pm update podcast lol

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index.shtml

[KWT]

Looks like its gotten a little more disorganised, the true center seems to have become a little hard to find looking at the latest Key west radar.

The whole system seems to be moving north but until we get a recon fix exactly where the LLC is tough to know.

[MiamiensisWx]

It actually looks like the center relocated farther north (SW of the Ten Thousand Islands) under the strongest convection...

It's true, and it's still moving NNW toward Naples.

[Weatherboy1]

for what it's worth, I think this puppy makes landfall around Everglades City.

[tolakram]

Key West pressure falling again.




Gusty winds now, though still light.

http://mycampage.com/keywestcam

[Sanibel]

I think something is being missed here and this loop has allowed the trough to firm behind Fay. No matter what the the cyclonic loop did this should landfall more east with Marco-Everglades City being the furthest point west. In my years of radar watching IMO this is kind of obvious.

[paintplaye]

Does anyone have a webcam of Naples? A webcam that maybe is looking into The ocean?

[Steve]

>>MODS up please take care if these sneak political comments. Plenty of other news stations with different slants that do the same thing.

Sorry caneman. You are wrong here. H-Y-P-E and the freedom to lie aren't traits of any single ideology or bent. I watch Fox (local and national) and I think I'm pretty qualified to call 'hype'. Your local SE FL guys are telling you they are full of it. It's, in a way, not a lot different from Accuweather trying to trump the NHC with their "forecasts." Sure, they've got a right to do them. And sure, Fox usually gives them a lot of air time during real threats. Nothing personal, the cpdaman is just commenting on what he sees. You're too good of a poster to be hyper sensitive about some major news conglomerate no matter what your political persuasion might be.

FWIW, although there may be a single center of lowest pressure, I think Miami radar confirms multiple vortices down to the southwest no matter how strong they are.

Steve

[KWT]

It actually looks like the center relocated farther north (west of the Ten Thousand Islands) under the strongest convection...

It's true, and it's still moving NNW toward Naples.

not when convection is moving from east-west to the south of your location, no way is it that far north, I see no real standout circulation there at all to be honest, plus if the center was up there recon would have noted a wind shift as well by now...

[MiamiensisWx]

It actually looks like the center relocated farther north (west of the Ten Thousand Islands) under the strongest convection...

It's true, and it's still moving NNW toward Naples.

not when convection is moving from east-west to the south of your location, no way is it that far north, I see no real standout circulation there at all to be honest, plus if the center was up there recon would have noted a wind shift as well by now...

I changed "west" to "SW" of Ten Thousand Islands...

Center does appear to be N of Key West.

[cpdaman]

nhc podcast i linked says fay will probably slow and make landfall during day tommorow and probably come ashore as a cat 1 , with 3-6 foot surge.

[Evil Jeremy]

SE shift in the new GFDL: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

[Vortex]

the center jumped right under the deep convection we saw bursting about 6pm.

[Scorpion]

On the GFDL track we would get strong TS winds on the coast here.