ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gurutc]

Thanks for the webcam. My wife says 'pretty!'

- gurutc

[LSue]

Wow Sanibel...a sunset, huh?

I'm looking at dark skies and intermittent heavy squalls. Not much wind.

Oh what does Ms. Fay have in mind for our lovely Naples??????????

[cpdaman]

there was a NNE drift , lyons said it, and now he says it's N or maybe 355,

the meso cyclone spinning around a broad center has the lowest pressure and where that goes will determine the recon fix IMO, watch in the next hour as it goes WNW and then SW and then east again.

[caneman]

>>MODS up please take care if these sneak political comments. Plenty of other news stations with different slants that do the same thing.

Sorry caneman. You are wrong here. H-Y-P-E and the freedom to lie aren't traits of any single ideology or bent. I watch Fox (local and national) and I think I'm pretty qualified to call 'hype'. Your local SE FL guys are telling you they are full of it. It's, in a way, not a lot different from Accuweather trying to trump the NHC with their "forecasts." Sure, they've got a right to do them. And sure, Fox usually gives them a lot of air time during real threats. Nothing personal, the cpdaman is just commenting on what he sees. You're too good of a poster to be hyper sensitive about some major news conglomerate no matter what your political persuasion might be.

FWIW, although there may be a single center of lowest pressure, I think Miami radar confirms multiple vortices down to the southwest no matter how strong they are.

Steve

Steve, I Appreciate the kind words. Yes Fox News hypes but I can list many other shows-stations and on air talent (that is a stretch term)that are full of hot air. Didn't mean to call him out it was more the first poster that I had an issue with. Not trying to be hypersensitvie but I'm always up for a good debate and that got me in trouble on here once before (something about global warming). So, just wanted to keep it on track and make it easier to get thru these posts. BTW, love your posts. Like how you don't seem area biased and love the humor. Keep up the good work.

[RL3AO]

Nice job MiamiensisWx. It was an illusion. Fay is still moving due north and there was never a NNE drift.

Hard to say we've not had recon for the last few hours, no reason to say this hasn't jogged eastwards, lowest pressure found actually a tiny bit ESE of Key West, that surprised me a little bit...long term motion of NNW but the NW jogs may mask the NNE jogs.

Recon just found the center due north of Key West.

[Evil Jeremy]

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 25.0 north...longitude 81.9 west or about 105
miles...170 km...south of Naples Florida.


Fay is moving toward the north near 9 mph...15 km/hr. This general
motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday. On the
forecast track...the center of Fay will cross the southwestern
coast of Florida on Tuesday.

[KWT]

Sorry my bad I made a mess up of the co-ordinates RL3AO. Still long term track is NNW as has been mentioned, still a real good indication will be where the next recon fix has the center...

By the way I agree with what Miami said, I see a landfall only a little south of Naples presently.

[BigA]

So it's slowing, and slowly deepening.

[Bgator]

I just went to the top floor of my building, 6 stories high.
Wind is pretty strong here in Miami, gives you resistance while walking, traffic lights bouncing, haha.
Its very nice outside.

[NFLnut]

I would stop listening to your "local mets" (many of whom do not even display verifiable, certified meteorological degrees) and only post information from reliable news sources such as Max Mayfield, NHC, etc.

South Florida media is chaotic at times...

I concur.

The local mets in Orlando are in all-out impending doom and disaster mode. They keep hyping their own VIPIR nonsense contrary to the NHC. This is completely irresponsible as they are reporting it as if it is the official track, and it's NOT! I don't mind a little "WHAT IF" as long as they clearly mention that it is merely speculation, but that is NOT what they are doing. With all of its flaws, the NHC has gotten pretty good at this, and I would take their official track instead of a couple of local TV station meteorologist/weather dudes!

As another thread states, it's probably best to just turn off the TV. The only problem with that is that the Olympics are on this week, and probably the WORST TV mets with this nonsense happen to be the channel that is bringing the Olympics!

An example of this all-out doom nonsense is that the TV station keeps going to their reporter on Ft Myers beach and every time they say "let's go to Joe Blow on the beach where conditions are steadily getting worse!.." The palm branches behind the guy aren't even moving .. they're dead still, the waves are rolling to the shore one at a time and about 3-inches high, and I think they splashed him with a garden hose before the shot!

The local mets are just trying to whip everyone up into a needless frenzy! Just watch this and the other WX sites and leave these clowns to themselves!

[mathwhizz]

I wish you all could see the tropical bands swirling in the sunset light.

Could you take a picture and show us?

[KWT]

Pretty much BigA, only slowly strengthening mind you at the present moment in time.

Also whilst the NHC are showing a northerly track truth is its just a tiny big west of north, probably no more west than 355 though IMO.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Nice job MiamiensisWx. It was an illusion. Fay is still moving due north and there was never a NNE drift.

Hard to say we've not had recon for the last few hours, no reason to say this hasn't jogged eastwards, lowest pressure found actually a tiny bit ESE of Key West, that surprised me a little bit...long term motion of NNW but the NW jogs may mask the NNE jogs.

Recon just found the center due north of Key West.

I don't see a VDM in the recon thread yet.

[JabNOLA]

Seem obvious there is nw shear keeping Fay at check. Nice TC but no major anything. We can only hope/pray that somehow this doesn't end up in the Gulf north of Tampa in 2 days

[Dean4Storms]

She is finally trying to completely close of her center wrapped in Convection, may even see a small eye before landfall.

[cpdaman]

She is finally trying to completely close of her center wrapped in Convection, may even see a small eye before landfall.

dean i see that but i won't hold my breath, i would be impressed if that lasts for more than a few more radar updates, however it may. i do feel strongly this feature will rotate slowly west than drop South abit then be pushed east , all while the general mass drifts north'ish

[KWT]

Yep cpdaman I think that may well happen as well. The LLC still moving north it seems despite the radar suggesting something else, equally there is no hint of the LLC relocating jsut yet.

[artist]

Key West getting more weather now than I have seen in the last couple of hours -

http://mycampage.com/keywestcam

[txwatcher91]

Here is what our local weather office says about Fay and potential impact of the trough and hp.
In the wake of a sharp upper-level trough that sweeps through
southeast Canada and northern New England early in the week...the
long-term guidance is suggestive of a building upper-level ridge
over the northeast and mid-Atlantic. One concern is that the
forecast strengthening of the ridge is too great...which on some
guidance forces Fay back across Florida and into the Gulf over
time. Based on a current forecast of the ridge strengthening but
not as much as the GFS and the dgex...the track of Fay and its
remnants follow a slight turn to the northwest over time as they
approach the state.

[NEXRAD]

A series of cells exhibiting rotation are spiraling quickly northwest towards extreme NE Broward and SE Palm Beach county. These squalls will contain periods of torrential rain with hourly rates of 1 to 3 inches possible along with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. If any of the cells strengthen or develop stronger rotation, then an isolated tornado may also be possible. Eventually some of these storms may work into Central Palm Beach county.

- Jay