ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Yep Baton rouge could well get hurricane force winds, indeed given how quickly its moving thats looking quite likely, not good news for you guys up there.

Strongest winds are going to come very close to N.O it seems...it all depends on exactly where the wobbles take this system...we are indeed getting to that point where wobbles count.

[mathwhizz]

What was Katrina at landfall? 125mph?

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=The 00:00 UTC Best Track increases the winds to 105kts.

AL, 07, 2008090100, , BEST, 0, 268N, 877W, 105, 950, HU,

[CronkPSU]

to followup on the winds question...what does a strengthening storm do to storm surge...does it take them longer to "catch up" as well

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ed Rappaport from NHC just said that Baton Rouge would have sustained hurricane force winds with gusts 90-100 mph based on the current forecasted path. He just said that about 15 minutes ago. Yes, things are starting to get scary! RW

Rainwind, that makes sense, saw that a hurricane wind warning was just issued for Baton Rouge from 4am mon thru tues morn. Stay safe. Just finished tying and putting everything up outside and man is it hot and humid out there. Just plain nasty.

[Enzo Aquarius]

What was Katrina at landfall? 125mph?

Indeed

[tolakram]

I find it interesting that Betsy also intensified in this same area.

[ConvergenceZone]

What I want to know is, why is it so hard for an eye to show up with this system?? When the storm was yesterday morning, it was clearly showing....Any reason why there is no eye on the IR shots???

[boca]

Here's a live feed from New Orleans just in case someone is looking for the link.

http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=57429&live=yes

[Steve Cosby]

What was Katrina at landfall? 125mph?

Indeed

Remember, though, that Katrina was weakening at the time of landfall - this one will be deepening - based on everything I've read, that means that two storms of the same category has the weakening storm doing less damage. Sobering.

[Enzo Aquarius]

I find it interesting that Betsy also intensified in this same area.

Isn't that due to the Loop Current in the area?

[Lowpressure]

What I want to know is, why is it so hard for an eye to show up with this system?? When the storm was yesterday morning, it was clearly showing....Any reason why there is no eye on the IR shots???

Wondering the same thing myself. Has there ever been another 949 hurricane with no visible eye?

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=The Best Track at 00:00 UTC increase the winds to 105 kts.

AL, 07, 2008090100, , BEST, 0, 268N, 877W, 105, 950, HU,

[KWT]

TS winds probably very close to the tip of SE LA now as the main core of rain moves onland, expect to see TS reports sustianed very soon...

So it begins...

[Hyperstorm]

Wind shear has abated on the SE and E side of the system. There is still shear there, but not as much as earlier this afternoon. I'm seeing the cloud tops on the eastern side expanding eastward which tell me about the shear. Since this has occured, the bursting pattern the system has exhibited all day has managed to mix out the dry air some and has expanded in the N and NW side.

One thing to keep in mind is that now that the storm is expanding in size, it would take a lower pressure to create higher winds. As everyone knows, things happen in the tropics that we don't understand due to the current state of science, but unless the current shear pattern changes drastically this should not become a Category 4.

[tolakram]

What was Katrina at landfall? 125mph?

Indeed

Remember, though, that Katrina was weakening at the time of landfall - this one will be deepening - based on everything I've read, that means that two storms of the same category has the weakening storm doing less damage. Sobering.

I disagree. Katrina was huge and powerful and was weakening but the surge was already built up, more like a cat 5 surge.

[Hurricane Cheese]

The important thing to note right now is the storm is strengthening, BOTTOM LINE. I could care less what my friends down in Madison are saying about the shear!

Recon is telling me the facts...pressure is now into the 940s and Ed R. from the NHC just said on MSNBC that a Cat 4 is "possible" before landfall.

Time to follow the recon and satellite folks.

[cpdaman]

What was Katrina at landfall? 125mph?

Indeed

Remember, though, that Katrina was weakening at the time of landfall - this one will be deepening - based on everything I've read, that means that two storms of the same category has the weakening storm doing less damage. Sobering.

that is still possible that she could weaken coming in, it would probably be (if she did) about an hour or two prior to landfall , so not that much IMO

[Enzo Aquarius]

What I want to know is, why is it so hard for an eye to show up with this system?? When the storm was yesterday morning, it was clearly showing....Any reason why there is no eye on the IR shots???

Wondering the same thing myself. Has there ever been another 949 hurricane with no visible eye?

The latest satelite shots that have been posted here show, what appears to be, a forming eye. It may become more visible in the coming hours in IR.

[hicksta]

BREAKING NEWS=The Best Track at 00:00 UTC increase the winds to 105 kts.

AL, 07, 2008090100, , BEST, 0, 268N, 877W, 105, 950, HU,

120mph.... here we go.