ATL: IKE Discussion

[Just Joshing You]

It does not matter if it makes it to Cat 3 or 5 in my opinion. The damage will be pretty much the same.

[PTrackerLA]

Either way you cut it, a cat 2 of Ike's size will cause more damage than a small cat 3, bottom line. No one make the mistake of taking this lightly.

[MGC]

Woke up this morning to strong winds and rain. Son just got home from school and told me HWY-90 in Long Beach is closed due to tidal flooding. At first I thought Ike might have changed course, but no, still on track for Texas. So Ike is expending his energy on increasing his wind field. This will only make the surge along the Texas and Louisiana coast higher. Like Katrina, Texas and parts of Louisiana will have sustained hurricane force winds for hours, perhaps up to 12 hours. Even if Ike never regains major status, the length of time the wind blows will still cause major damage. But remember friends, Ike like Katrina will be remembered for their surge. And it appears that the surge in Texas will cause complete distruction to nearly all structures along the coast to the right of eye landfall. Ike's damage costs could potentially surpass Katrina. Water in Katrina caused 90% of the damage. This is going to be bad......MGC

[dwg71]

Outflow boundaries are best seen by visible.

Not an outflow boundary.

What *is* interesting is that the larger eye does seem to be on pace for formation in that loop.

I think that is just the dry air circulating the center, its been moving SW if its not

Watch the next frame when its available at 12:05CST.

[CronkPSU]

freak00

not so sure, that last SAT shot O Town just posted looks like a storm that is getting its inner core together pretty quickly...and with pressures already under 950, I think you are discounting it way too quickly

[Nexus]

Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.

Barely recover? Do you see the pressure on Ike? It's plenty recovered, it's just now enormously unwound instead of curled up tight. I guess it depends on your definition of "recover". Is it a 150 mile wide storm with a 10 mile wide swath of tornado-like winds? No. But a 500 mile wide storm with a 150 to 200 mile wide swath of hurricane force winds is, in my opinion, "recovered".

Sorry you disagree here Windy, but a storm with Sub>940 MB pressure that is only a Category Two "By Name" OBVIOUSLY has some issues.

That's just me.

The NHC Discussion mentioned the 65kt dropsonde near the max flight level winds of 103 kts, but for some reason did not mention the very next dropsonde that recorded 80kts (92mph) at the surface. Both were dropped before the discussion, I am a bit confused by this.

[weatherbud]

Wow. This is really getting serious. Most are already suspending their classes and establishments?

Yay! I wonder how hard will Ike make his landfall...

[Steve]

>>Ike is looking absolutely horrible...it has not organized in what seems like 24 hours...doesn't even look close to organizing..

I'm going to disagree with you here. As Masters was quoted above, Ike is somewhat of a freak storm. Based on the IR O Town posted and if you tie that into the JSL loop, it may be that the little dry slot or whatever it was that rotated into the center is now rung and could possibly be a new, dominant center. It may just be a trick of the imagery, so we should probably watch it for the next couple of hours to see. Run that loop here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-jsl.html

[KWT]

The NHC were talking about the wind maxia at 100NM out and that the winds there arent transfering down to the surfac.e..the did NOT say that it only has 65kts, just that the outer band did not winds mixing down to the surface as much as you'd expect thats all.

[CronkPSU]

>>Ike is looking absolutely horrible...it has not organized in what seems like 24 hours...doesn't even look close to organizing..

I'm going to disagree with you here. As Masters was quoted above, Ike is somewhat of a freak storm. Based on the IR O Town posted and if you tie that into the JSL loop, it may be that the little dry slot or whatever it was that rotated into the center is now rung and could possibly be a new, dominant center. It may just be a trick of the imagery, so we should probably watch it for the next couple of hours to see. Run that loop here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-jsl.html

whoa...is that the eye that suddenly opened up???

[Wx_Warrior]

That's why these "boom, RI, monster" people need to stop trying to be mets....Good ol' Texas dry air waitin' for Ike....!!!!

[Steve]

I don't know Cronk. You can also see it on the AVN IR. Very hard to tell on the visible but you can see the blowup on the western edge of that slot on visible. Perhaps it is, perhaps it isn't. I'm not a pro and am just making the observation now that that "spot/slot" is encircled by convection in the temperature spectrums. If it is, then it well may be game on as someone was saying last night. If it is not, then it's just a drier spot in an otherwise amazing hurricane IMHO.

Steve

[Nexus]

The NHC were talking about the wind maxia at 100NM out and that the winds there arent transfering down to the surfac.e..the did NOT say that it only has 65kts, just that the outer band did not winds mixing down to the surface as much as you'd expect thats all.

It was the bolded part that bugged me:

THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65
KT. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT
QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

I guess technically it's correct though, as 80kt is not 85kt

[CowboyFan]

IMO what we are seeing is the outer eyewall taking over, it appears to be about to open up a big eye. Which could be bad news

[cpdaman]

Woke up this morning to strong winds and rain. Son just got home from school and told me HWY-90 in Long Beach is closed due to tidal flooding. At first I thought Ike might have changed course, but no, still on track for Texas. So Ike is expending his energy on increasing his wind field. This will only make the surge along the Texas and Louisiana coast higher. Like Katrina, Texas and parts of Louisiana will have sustained hurricane force winds for hours, perhaps up to 12 hours. Even if Ike never regains major status, the length of time the wind blows will still cause major damage. But remember friends, Ike like Katrina will be remembered for their surge. And it appears that the surge in Texas will cause complete distruction to nearly all structures along the coast to the right of eye landfall. Ike's damage costs could potentially surpass Katrina. Water in Katrina caused 90% of the damage. This is going to be bad......MGC

yes ike is causing some absolutely gigantic surf throughout the gulf from the florida pan handle to texas, people along the texas coast should GET OUT, even if this thing comes ashore with lower maximum sustained winds than forecast, do not be lulled to sleep, water is the killer here, and ike's moving 100 times more water than humberto did. Also ike is going to be traveling over warmer waters than gustav did as he made his way toward coast, so don't count out his max winds from coming up just yet.

i'll say it again, anyone in texas near the coast needs to leave no matter what intensity this storm comes ashore as, the surge will be= to a major either way

[CoCo2]

This is very disturbing from Dr. Masters:

"Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years."

WOW! I certainly believe it. I'm in Northern Plaquemines Parish and just stepped outside, the wind is blowing at a pretty good clip and I can smell salt water right now. Never have before, the water is definitely rising in these parts. Reminds me of the smell of the Gulf when I'm in Florida.

[KWT]

Doubt the dry air will do much at all to Ike, Ike's circulation is huge and it all will get mixed out before it gets to the core, this will probably hold steady once within 12hrs of landfall...providing its not a cat-4 at that time of course

IR showing an eye feature again...cloud movement confirms that is the center of the circulation.

[tropicwatch]

Here is a webcam on Panama City Beach. Big waves parts of Hwy 98 from Shell point to Ft. Walton under water.

http://megaopps.8m.com/beach.html

[CronkPSU]

that open spot appears on the water vapor as well

[Yankeegirl]

Well just found out that Cy Fair ISD is closed tomorrow... I bet the kids are going to be happy!! So, this is my first "real" hurricane i have been through....wish me luck....