ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[BigA]

Recon seems to have found 996.4 pressure, but with wind, so they didn't exactly get the center.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

looks to me like its still intensifying and heading NNE now. It's about as far West as it is going to get. I still think it will past E of Ft. Myers and Naples.

Radar imagery out of Key West suggests the turn to the NNE also. It's pretty clear in my opinion:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Extratropical1]

well at least Home Depot and Walmart had sales boosted by this storm... too bad schools are closed tomorrow

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

looks to me like its still intensifying and heading NNE now. It's about as far West as it is going to get. I still think it will past E of Ft. Myers and Naples.

Radar imagery out of Key West suggests the turn to the NNE also. It's pretty clear in my opinion:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Long-range radar out of Miami also shoes the NNE drift...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

Based on the radar image, RECON was on the southern part of the center.

[CronkPSU]

I can't wait until Senorpepr does the verification of Fay and shows how amazing the NHC forecasted this storm, especially considering the land interaction, the parallel approach to Florida, and the constant shift of the models run to run.

THIS does a good job of showing how well they did.

they really did an awesome job but you know some yahoos will complain that the NHC missed landfall by 75 miles from 120 hours out

[JonathanBelles]

Just a note those warnings/watches are old and may not get updated until tomorrow unless somebody wants to update.

[BigA]

Long-range radar out of Miami also shoes the NNE drift...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Wherever its going, NNW, N, or NNE, it isn't going there in a hurry.

[tolakram]

People that claim the NHC missing things as they are -removed- cat 3 storms really tick me off. The NHC has said TS or low cat 1 for days ... DAYS. One day they mentioned the possibility of cat 2 if the core got organized, which it didn't. The problem IS in your set.


Key West ... the pressure is very slowly rising wich tells me it may be deepening as it moves away.

[Weatherfreak14]

I have a feeling this will, head out into the ATL and form into a strong storm than what it is now, im starting to look at the GFDL model and HWRF model.... I think everyone from Jacksonville, FL to Charleston SC watch this very closely, thurday mayb be the biggest landfall day in the GA, SC, FL coast into friday.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I can't get the doppler radar site to work.

Sanibel try the NBC web site. http://www.nbc-2.com. There radar loads quick and goes to street level.

[Extratropical1]

I guess I am one of those yahoos. Not saying NHC did bad but Hurricane forecasting has a looooooong way to go when it comes to the west coast of Florida. It's a shame the entire west coast has schools closed tomorrow and people spending money they dont have. Just my humble opinion. Not dissing NHC just the nature of the beast.

[gatorcane]

I can't wait until Senorpepr does the verification of Fay and shows how amazing the NHC forecasted this storm, especially considering the land interaction, the parallel approach to Florida, and the constant shift of the models run to run.

THIS does a good job of showing how well they did.

they really did an awesome job but you know some yahoos will complain that the NHC missed landfall by 75 miles from 120 hours out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

When all said in done I think the people living in the Tampa area are going to think the NHC "line" misguided them into thinking a hurricane was approaching...afterall look back and see how many cones showed Tampa within 25-50 miles of the line -- its likely the Tampa area won't see alot out of this as current NNE wobbles continue....and Tampa will be on the "good" side of the system....but I urge them that its the cone that they should have paid attention to. Actually I think this system is going to end up making landfall alot more E and S then alot of people thought and is not likely to go west of even Naples.

[tolakram]

No visible but the obs are still updating.

I guess I am one of those yahoos. Not saying NHC did bad but Hurricane forecasting has a looooooong way to go when it comes to the west coast of Florida. It's a shame the entire west coast has schools closed tomorrow and people spending money they don't have. Just my humble opinion. Not dissing NHC just the nature of the beast.

Please explain to me how that's the NHC fault? I suppose if you expect perfection then sure, but that's and unreasonable expectation. The NHC gave intensity and landfall estimates, what people do with them is another matter. It's like a snow day in the north, one day, big deal.

[tgenius]

Well of course things can change.. but there isn't much rain in the past few hours and very few gusts of wind.. its funny this feels like Ernesto part deux instead of Irene part deux.

[sfwx]

I have edited the NHC map to include 2am times in between each 2pm Dot. Here is what it looks like...



It looks like this will be coming ashore sometime between 2am and 2pm on Tuesday if this track actually plays out, but the outer effects could begin as early as Monday morning or afternoon.

I'd say the NHC nailed it pretty close from the 1st advisory!

[leaf blower]

I can't wait until Senorpepr does the verification of Fay and shows how amazing the NHC forecasted this storm, especially considering the land interaction, the parallel approach to Florida, and the constant shift of the models run to run.

THIS does a good job of showing how well they did.

they really did an awesome job but you know some yahoos will complain that the NHC missed landfall by 75 miles from 120 hours out

Have to say in all honesty i havent seen a storm outside the cone so far this season so well done to them!

[Bocadude85]

Ok I do not understand how the nws is forcasting winds sustained at 34mph gusting to 50 for Boca when there is not even a breeze here... when is this wind going to start?

[HURAKAN]

Extratropical1, you are looking at the half-empty part of the glass. You should be happy that because of shear, dry air, and land interaction Fay wasn't able to become a major hurricane. It's the best thing it could have happened to Florida.

[Scorpion]

People need to quit complaining about the lack of wind. Wait until it makes landfall.