ATL: IKE Discussion

[bob rulz]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Nice to hear from a pro. This storm has been confusing me for days.

You and everyone else.

So my understanding is that this will weaken slightly in the short term but once the inner eyewall has completely collapsed it will start to strengthen again right?

I mean, that's how it usually works in an EWRC but this is a very strange storm and I'm getting conflicted reports...

[tolakram]

It appears convection is trying to wrap around now. If the plane entered from the NW then the missing inner wind max might be explained by this.

The arrow indicates motion on the loop, not pointing at anything.

[gboudx]

Question for a pro. I'd put this on the TA Forum thread, but no pro's appear to be reading it.

Is Lowell "fighting" off the trough that is building south through Cali? Help me understand what this water vapor map is showing me.

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=6

[Raider Power]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

I think contra flow was only supposed to start a little before Conroe. That wont help this. I -45 outside my window (near Little York) is moving well.

Contraflowing the lanes right now coming out of Galveston would be a bad idea. People are leaving work early to get to their homes for final prep and remember it is not just Galveston where people are headed to for preparations. They are going to Friendswood, Clear Lake, Webster, etc. To contraflow now would be to divert a massive amount of traffic to local roads and would cause a great deal of problems. Contraflow will now be best to do around 6 PM I think.

[KWT]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Yep this confirms there:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

What bad timing, its already got the huge surge and for it to ramp up now would give it little time for any structual changes to wekaen it...

[zaqxsw75050]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Correct if I am wrong, but is that mean Ike will start to take off in intensity?

[bob rulz]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Correct if I am wrong, but is that mean Ike will start to take off in intensity?

After this brief stabilization/weakening period I would assume that's the forecast.

[rainman]

intensification is likely if indeed the EWRC is ending

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde supports an intensity increase to 90 kt.

[clfenwi]

Is Hurricane Ike the lowest pressure that is not a major hurricane since it has a central pressure of 944 mb and 100 mph winds?

Gloria of 1985 had 944 mb and 80 kt (and slightly later had 944/85 like Ike does now)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Wilma before the plunge was 945/95

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Only other comparable situation I could find was Gilbert coming off the Yucatan, 949/90, 950/85, but went on to be 25 knots stronger with only a slight drop in pressure .

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

That 945/95 from Wilma was a mere guess before the jaw dropper came in so it was most likely wrong - it was 954/85 then tumbled to 901/130 at next report (so it was likely about 925/115 at that advisory). Gloria was likely 942/90 at NC landfall. Also Katrina was as low as 940 during the ERC with a generous 100 kt (not supported by any Recon).

Good points all.

RE Wilma, what is on the Unisys website is what the advisory info was at that time, the official report shows 946/130 at that time, so scratch Wilma from that list.

And indeed, when Katrina was at 940 mb during the ERC, it was satellite estimates that propped up the intensity of 100 kts, not recon (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .017.shtml?)

[RL3AO]

FWIW, the VDM center is about 13 miles right of forecast track.

[Lowpressure]

Dropsonde supports an intensity increase to 90 kt.

The pressure is so low, you would think the wind has to catch up at some point and it may happen rather quickly, unfortunately.

[Txdivermom]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

Anyone got that Galveston exit traffic camera link bookmarked? I seem to have lost it... it was posted around page 400 some hours ago...

Yes:

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv ... IH-45_Gulf

And choose Tiki Island or 71st to get near the causeway. Tiki Island is looking at the causeway.

[Brent]

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS

[KWT]

Dropsonde supports an intensity increase to 90 kt.

Yep found 89kts, so indeed the winds should be upped to 90kts, looks like Ike is ever so slowly strengthening right now but if the inner issues are getting sorted out then this will strengthen faster.

[amawea]

I see very little dry air ahead of Ike, especially in Texas. The moisture from the Pacific tropical system is coming in over Texas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

[rtd2]

Dropsonde supports an intensity increase to 90 kt.

The pressure is so low, you would think the wind has to catch up at some point and it may happen rather quickly, unfortunately.

pressure has been on the rise last few recons

URNT12 KNHC 111749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 11/17:21:30Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
088 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2705 m
D. 55 kt
E. 307 deg 98 nm
F. 058 deg 075 kt
G. 306 deg 087 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3040 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2709A IKE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NW QUAD 16:56:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 302 / 50NM
MAX OUTBOUND AMD MAX FL WIND 87 KT SE QUAD 1732Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR

8 nm eyewall open NW side. No mention of an outer eyewall.

[shawn67]

FWIW, the VDM center is about 13 miles right of forecast track.

Doesnt a repositioning of the eye often occur as these ERC conclude?

The eye is dead...long live the eye

[Txdivermom]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

I think contra flow was only supposed to start a little before Conroe. That wont help this. I -45 outside my window (near Little York) is moving well.

Contraflowing the lanes right now coming out of Galveston would be a bad idea. People are leaving work early to get to their homes for final prep and remember it is not just Galveston where people are headed to for preparations. They are going to Friendswood, Clear Lake, Webster, etc. To contraflow now would be to divert a massive amount of traffic to local roads and would cause a great deal of problems. Contraflow will now be best to do around 6 PM I think.

I totally agree with you. Everything seems to be moving really well right now, I think. And starting contra flow to the north is the right thing to do. Some people may only be going to stay with someone in N Houston. If contra is opened, they will have to travel far up the interstate.

[KWT]

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS

Not good for the Galveston region given every jog is starting to make a difference in terms of eventual landfall, hopefully that trend corrects itself.