ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[NEXRAD]

:uarrow:

Jay I am seeing that also. What do you think about my prognosis of a NNE movement of Fay's center now, maybe even NE...if trends continue Fay would pass alot closer to the SE FL metro counties than originally progged.

Right now I see Fay moving little. Perhaps a slight drift a little east of due north, but otherwise not much forward motion.

- Jay

[Nimbus]

We could not have asked for a track with much more land intervention. Hope Fay makes landfall soon as a TS and stays inland but we probably won't be rid of her soon. Several of the models trap her under the ridge till the second trough arrives, so the forecasting is still going to be challenging.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm almost reminds me of Barry last year. Just farther south and slightly stronger.

[melhow]

Here's a question - can an ordered evacuation be halted?

Does the Pinellas County Emergency Management have the ability to recall the mandatory Level A evacuation ordered for 6AM Tuesday (tomorrow)? While, in my opinion, I feel that the the cancellation of school in the county was a wise move and probably should be upheld, is evacuating appx. 292,000 evac. Level A residents starting at the crack of dawn the best move to make given the status of Fay, present and forecast?

[SWFLA_CANE]

Tornado warning for south central Collier.

[cpdaman]

Water Vapor loop.

I don't see that ULL anywhere.

me either

i do see a trough axis digging to the NW right now, and probably giving fay a bit of a kick more NE within 2-3 hours

note the little push at 27/85 up to 29/84 that is sliding down toward the NW side of fay's circulation. look for an increase in convection on the east side. lets see if we have any surprises later tonite in track. going back thru the comments last nite between 3 and 5 am was pretty comical and a good memory here.

[gatorcane]

Yes as I mentioned earlier today, I thought that trough axis would nudge her more NE and it seems to be verifying tonight but she's just drifting NE.

[HURAKAN]

I hope we could tell you exactly what the storm will do and what you should do. Unfortunately the only thing the forecasters can do is look at the environmental and oceanic factors and using the help of computer models and experience, tell they expect to happen.

It's always better to prepare for the worse and expect the best.

Florida needed rain and we're getting rain. I don't see anything bad about Fay if you took minor preparedness like staying inside your house and away from windows. If you live in a flood-prone area or in a mobile home, you should evacuate even with a depression. Any tropical cyclone can produce heavy rainfall and tornadoes.

[Sanibel]

Nothing here yet. Breezes no rain.

The radar not working was my cache overloaded. Works now.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Tornado Warning


TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 945 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 943 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 29 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. I-75 AT COLLIER COUNTY REST AREA.

[capepoint]

looking at the water vapor loop, there is a darker slot from the big bend area down towards the southwest, that appears to be moving up against fay. Is that something that would cause a more NE course? or could it push her SE? or could she just push thru it?

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

I'll be darned, it STILL looks to be movinn NNW.

Has recon sampled the heavy convection to the NE of the center yet?

It looks like it may just ride up the Florida West Coast for a scenic tour.

[Stangfriik]

I hope we could tell you exactly what the storm will do and what you should do. Unfortunately the only thing the forecasters can do is look at the environmental and oceanic factors and using the help of computer models and experience, tell they expect to happen.

It's always better to prepare for the worse and expect the best.

Florida needed rain and we're getting rain. I don't see anything bad about Fay if you took minor preparedness like staying inside your house and away from windows. If you live in a flood-prone area or in a mobile home, you should evacuate even with a depression. Any tropical cyclone can produce heavy rainfall and tornadoes.

Totally agree. I kept telling people that a couple depressions or even tropical storms would be good for us and the ever shrinking aquifer

[gatorcane]

I'll be darned, it STILL looks to be movinn NNW.

Has recon sampled the heavy convection to the NE of the center yet?

It looks like it may just ride up the Florida West Coast for a scenic tour.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not as likely anymore....I think Fay has a NNE to NE trip through the Everglades in her plans...

[Steve]

>>Here's a quick video I took this morning in West Palm Beach.. About 10am...

Awesome Sal and bgator. Nothing better than some photos or video. If you get anything else worth posting tomorrow, let me know. Thanks.

Steve

[NEXRAD]

Storm cells across Broward Co. are showing signs of rotation.

- Jay

[tgenius]

I'll be darned, it STILL looks to be movinn NNW.

Has recon sampled the heavy convection to the NE of the center yet?

It looks like it may just ride up the Florida West Coast for a scenic tour.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not as likely anymore....I think Fay has a NNE to NE trip through the Everglades in her plans...

That would likely mean more wind and rain for Miami no?

[Air Force Met]

So why cant the NHC in all the conference calls tell local officials to stay open dont evacuate and keep schools open if they are so accurate??? The local EOC;s take there word as God and I am on the inside so I know what i am talkin about

no idea why I am feeding the troll but why in the world would you want people to be stuck in cars with flash flooding going on, power lines crashing, branches and trees falling all around..and that is just from the 40+ mph winds which do extend out over 100 miles....I am just north of Orlando and I am sure glad my child isn't going out on the bus in those conditions

Just to bring a little clarity.

Unless you ARE on the inside of the EOC...FEMA world...and listen to the conference calls...and KNOW the politics that go into these forecasts (and the FACT that it isn't some forecaster choosing their best idea anymore...but by and large sticking to the consensus track)...you cannot understand the frustration. So...its not a matter of trolling...I don't think. I really don't think most of you understand what the real deal is.

I know many of us would love to invite you into our world for just ONE of these events. You would walk away with a whole new perspective.

[cpdaman]

looking at the water vapor loop, there is a darker slot from the big bend area down towards the southwest, that appears to be moving up against fay. Is that something that would cause a more NE course? or could it push her SE? or could she just push thru it?

that's exactly what i added to me post (in an edit) last page, i think this will be impacting her NW side within a couple hours (if not already) and will nudge her somewhere for sure. SE? that would be.........something.....but with no models hinting at that i don't think it's an option...however someone else who understands these things better could give you a better answer.

[Patrick99]

I can't possibly avoid work tomorrow, can I? Gonna go to bed early at the usual time....I don't want to get my hopes up. hehe