ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ekal]

Not sure exactly what is happening in the northeast quadrant, but I appreciate whatever it is. Looks like subsidence (sinking air), which should be located only within the eye. That may be what is preventing rapid deepening.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Wind picking up in baton rouge. Clouds look ominous.

That outer band that caused the tornado warnings is going through Baton Rouge right now. So be expecting some rain, wind and lightning over the next half hour or so.

[soonertwister]

At 115mph looks like Gustav will be the strongest landfalling US hurricane since Wilma in 2005.

Gustav is at 120 mph right now.

[Stormcenter]

Eye becoming more visible in radar.

What is the link to that loop.....many thanks.

[mathwhizz]

Is that an eye popping out in the last frame? If you check mark the trop forecast points to the new eye, it's very clearly going east of track and making a beeline to New Orleans.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[pablolopez26]

Do you guys think that we'll get some rain out of this event here in Houston?

[Cape Verde]

I believe that the eye was last measured at about 25 miles across. It's a large area of relatively light winds. The plane flies around in there and tries to find a center of lowest pressure. That center may not be in the center of the 25 mile diameter ring. And the next time they fly through they may estimate a center in a different part of the eye. So you can't connect two VDMs and get a heading. They'll jump left and right of the actual track, depending upon where the plane fixes the lower pressure center each pass. The VDM does not identify the center of the eye (at least, not necessarily).

That was a very understandable post from a pro met at this forum, and I appreciate it as I"m sure others do too.

We all value the pro mets here, but sometimes they are only talking to each other, like doctors or lawyers, using terminology that laymen don't fully comprehend.

Don't be afraid to dumb it down for the rest of us! We're not stupid, but we don't all have the training.

Thank you.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Eye becoming more visible in radar.

What is the link to that loop.....many thanks.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Ivanhater]

Radar continues to show a more NNW motion...I dont see how this goes west of NO

[marciacubed]

That was a very understandable post from a pro met at this forum, and I appreciate it as I"m sure others do too.

We all value the pro mets here, but sometimes they are only talking to each other, like doctors or lawyers, using terminology that laymen don't fully comprehend.

Don't be afraid to dumb it down for the rest of us! We're not stupid, but we don't all have the training.

Thank you.[/quote]



I loved that you stated that beautifully!!!

[superfly]

Is that an eye popping out in the last frame? If you check mark the trop forecast points to the new eye, it's very clearly going east of track and making a beeline to New Orleans.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

That's dry air.

[chris_fit]

Radar continues to show a more NNW motion...I dont see how this goes west of NO

Too far out to use radar...

[Stormcenter]

Radar continues to show a more NNW motion...I dont see how this goes west of NO

I'm not seeing it but I'm no radar expert.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Just Joshing You]

Looking at Landfall, and from what I remembered, didn't Katrina only give sustained wings of cat 1 and gusts of cat 2 in N.O? It looks like N.O will get the full brunt of Gustavs winds though, probably Cat 2 sustained, cat 3/4 gusts.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Tornado watches are now up for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

[Cape Verde]

Do you guys think that we'll get some rain out of this event here in Houston?

Probably not at landfall, but be careful what you wish for. The storm is poised to bounce back after it comes inland and dump a lot of water, probably on you.

[hurrican19]

I have not left, and most likely won't be leaving...

From KFDM in Beaumont:

(7:05PM Sunday) FROM THE KFDM WEATHER CENTER, New Data Indicates Gustav Expected to Make Landfall Well East of Golden Triangle.

KFDM Chief Meteorlogist Greg Bostwick says based on the most recent data, Hurricane Gustav is back on track after a brief wobble to the west earlier Sunday.

The center of Gustav is now located near 26.9 north and 87.7 west. Highest winds are 115 miles per hour. The motion is to the northwest at about 17 miles per hour.

"I am very confident now of a landfall well to our east, in an area just southwest of Houma, Louisiana, between about 9 a.m. and noon Monday, with winds of 120-125 miles per hour," said Greg.

"With landfall expected to be well to our east, winds locally likely won't exceed 40 miles per hour Monday night into Tuesday morning. That will be mainly near Sabine Lake and along the Sabine River. Rainfall totals shouldn't be very heavy, with amounts likely to remain less than two inches between Monday and Tuesday."

We'll continue monitoring Gustav for any changes that might occur before landfall.

Stay with KFDM News and Weather for the latest on Hurricane Gustav.

[jlauderdal]

[RainWind]

Thanks for keeping us posted Enzo, it is really appreciated. We had a tornado touch down in Livingston around 8:15, around St. Amant, no injuries, so that is good! RW

[TideJoe]

Radar continues to show a more NNW motion...I dont see how this goes west of NO

Yeah..... I keep watching it and if that 'empty circle' in the radar is the eye, it's moving NNW. New Orleans is going to get hammered and the MS coast is going to get stronger than anticipated surge and wind. I hope everyone got out in time.