ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[crazycajuncane]

I'm going to New Orleans this weekend, so this thing is right where I want it to be.

I didn't expect this storm to be as big as the hype around it is. The media is playing this storm up much more than a tropical storm. I do think some people will come out of this with too much rain if the system slows down. It's more of a rain threat then a wind threat.

[cpdaman]

995 mb

[Evil Jeremy]

New advisory seems to be delayed..... again.

They still have 11 mins.

They normally come out 30-15 minutes before the top of the hour.

[SoupBone]

Not impressed with this storm at all....I guess this is why I haven't really joined in on any of the conversation. System doesn't seem worthy of much analyzation. Give me my Summertime Thunderstorm and I'm more excited and impressed than this tiny tropical storm.

Yea, it's not headed your way so why get excited.

I got my fill with Katrina. No need to worry. I know about the big ones. Either way, I'm not impressed--I have a right to state my opinion on this forum.

Obviously you have the right to be an @zz. I'm here in Baton Rouge and loving every minute of this storm. If you don't like the storm don't post here. It's that simple.

[AdamFirst]

Certain Publix stores will be open very limited hours tomorrow. Depends on the movement, track, and strength of the storm.

My store will be open 7 AM-11 AM

[gatorcane]

I see a strengthening system, only a matter of time before winds push down to the surface across Southern FLorida.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tropical storm center located near 25.3n 81.9w at 19/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 995 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.

[AdamFirst]

Am I the only one noticing a north-northeastery movement?

[crazycajuncane]

One difference in this storm and Eduardo a few weeks ago is the difference in Texas posters!

[O Town]

Seems to be a good bit east of forecast track looking at radar.

[Ed Mahmoud]

One difference in this storm and Eduardo a few weeks ago is the difference in Texas posters!

Which one?

[gatorcane]

Im sorry I don't see a N at 8 mph, unless they are averaging in movement over the whole 6 hours since the last advisory...last 3-4 hours has been NNE.

[lebron23]

New track has a landfall in GA...

then a turn to the west

[Sanibel]

The center is starting to mix out of those false eastern centers on radar that fooled me. If that means it is strengthening I don't know because the south quadrant is really dry. More west than I earlier claimed. Dang, I'm usually better than this.

[Over my head]

One difference in this storm and Eduardo a few weeks ago is the difference in Texas posters!

Which one?

Surely not me???

[Sean in New Orleans]

I see a strengthening system, only a matter of time before winds push down to the surface across Southern FLorida.

Lord have mercy...because I'm not going nuts over this system, I'm now a "curse word." All I said was I'm not impressed. You want me to lie? It's mid August....come back around and you'll see which ones impress me. Ask some of the seasoned posters on this board if I have gotten active at the right time over the course of the last 5 years on this board. I'm watching the system, but, goodness, it's not that impressive. That is what it is.

[tolakram]

I don't see any official statements either at the NHC or via weather underground. jeremy posted without a source so the info is suspect.

[Ed Mahmoud]

550

WTNT41 KNHC 190255

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008



FAY'S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING. THE STORM

BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR

OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THEN

SHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL

PRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET. THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON

THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND

THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER

FAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN

INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. OUR

FORECAST FOR FAY'S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS

FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.



AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8. FAY IS

MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE

DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND U.K. MET

OFFICE MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY'S TREK

ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO

ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. AFTER 1-2 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE

FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY

IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE

PERIOD...AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE

FAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN

THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS. THE FORECAST OF

FAY'S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY

DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER. SHOULD FAY

REMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO

DISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 19/0300Z 25.3N 81.9W 50 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 26.6N 81.7W 55 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 20/0000Z 28.1N 81.3W 40 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 20/1200Z 29.2N 81.0W 30 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 21/0000Z 30.3N 81.0W 40 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 31.0N 81.5W 45 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 23/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 24/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



$$

FORECASTER PASCH/PASCH

[Sanibel]

I'll put in for hurricane if it goes to 994.

[crazycajuncane]

One difference in this storm and Eduardo a few weeks ago is the difference in Texas posters!

Which one?

Surely not me???

The overly passionate ones!