ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[paintplaye]

One of my local TV met just said that Fay may stall near my area exactly where is still TBD, but his thinking will be just offshore of the First Coast but retrograde back west to coast the ? is where that particular landfall may be... confusing to say the least... but then Fay has gotten infamous already....

Yea this storm could have anything from 1-3 USA landfalls.

[caribepr]

Ok. I guess I'm here, where it could/might/won't/will/etc. be an *event* or not, and I haven't tuned into any drama at all. Just have done what I did before I left Culebra, expected the worst and prepped for it, hoped for the best and rolling with it (as in drat, do I have to water those plants I just bought for my daughter's garden?).
Not going for the drama doesn't mean, to me, a need to actually join into it by going against it...but then, I'm 54, so maybe I'm aware most emergencies aren't and if they are, be ready as ready.
Fay has been an interesting phenomenon for weather watchers and pro's alike. It's sort of like the old days...fill the tub, live the life (and no, I didn't fill the tub). I think the long time watchers aren't going with drama as much interested amazement. If you are using Katrina as a bench mark...well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Call me silly, but the unpredictable ones like Fay are the most interesting to track.


Nothing against a perfectly formed major in the middle of the ocean, but the unpredictability and arguing over centers and the such, why it is interesting.

Ed, your silly......

BTW- TX's TC season doesnt end until the westerlies kick in.....

Not kididng about a model showing Fay in the Central Gulf




US water vapor loop- guess which state is in the Westerlies. Two cold fronts in a week already. Not a normal August pattern, for sure.

[freeroam]

I could not agree more!

One of my local TV met just said that Fay may stall near my area exactly where is still TBD, but his thinking will be just offshore of the First Coast but retrograde back west to coast the ? is where that particular landfall may be... confusing to say the least... but then Fay has gotten infamous already....

Yea this storm could have anything from 1-3 USA landfalls.

[Blown Away]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not betting money on it, but do I see a small eye feature trying to develop?

[Stangfriik]

Not betting money on it, but do I see a small eye feature trying to develop?

Exactly what I was thinking

[mattpetre]

So do I get to claim my forecast from the weekend if it still makes landfall in LA? Seriously though, I think the non-consensus in the models for the long term is something for us all to worry about. Fay could be bothering us for a long time. Then again, most of the SE US could really use a lot of good rain.

[Wx_Warrior]

As weak as she is, who knows?

[Blown Away]

Looks due N on radar, but on the IR looks like the trough is starting to push Fay NNE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

Question...

Who is buying the emergence of Fay back into the GOM?

Why or why not?

If the models are still calling for the GOM in 24 hrs, I'll be a concerned gawker.

[Sanibel]

Well this is the first year our orange tree has had lots of oranges - so this wuss storm isn't a let down to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

be interesting to see this in 7 hours...

[NFLnut]

Question...

Who is buying the emergence of Fay back into the GOM?

Why or why not?

Well looking at the latest track adjustment the NHC is at least giving it some serious thought.

I IS??!!

To ME it looks like they have it going farther inland Florida!

[paintplaye]

So do I get to claim my forecast from the weekend if it still makes landfall in LA? Seriously though, I think the non-consensus in the models for the long term is something for us all to worry about. Fay could be bothering us for a long time. Then again, most of the SE US could really use a lot of good rain.

It is possible but I think it will not be likely. This thing could be with us for another week! For me that is a little to long to keep up with a storm. I need a break after a while.

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 190313
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 19/02:38:30Z
B. 25 deg 12 min N
081 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1388 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 197 deg 043 kt
G. 138 deg 076 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 13 C/ 1530 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2006A FAY OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 54 KT E QUAD 0255 Z

[eastcoastFL]

doesnt look to be moving much at all to me. going to be a long night. not sure if i have to go to work in the morning in west palm

[BigA]

more strong bands forming that will rake the keys.

[stormy1970al]

Question...

Who is buying the emergence of Fay back into the GOM?

Why or why not?

According to the local Mobile, AL met on NBC
http://www.nbc15online.com/news/local/s ... 0bfc179f68

and channel 5 WKRG just said that after it hits FL it could be a bit tricky because of what the models are saying. Hey this storm has been nothing but unpredictable.

It is a wait and see situation. Right now I am praying that those in the path of Fay are safe!

[crazycajuncane]

So do I get to claim my forecast from the weekend if it still makes landfall in LA? Seriously though, I think the non-consensus in the models for the long term is something for us all to worry about. Fay could be bothering us for a long time. Then again, most of the SE US could really use a lot of good rain.

At this point... who knows! I don't know what to say, but it'll be interesting to see what develops. At this point I want to see where is exits Florida. If it cuts back across Florida again like one model the local met just showed that would bring massive amounts of rain to them.

You aren't cheating though... you just didn't specify that it would hit Florida first, so I guess you'd have a legit forecast.