ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

they are not up-to-date with the models....which do not show this situation with the latest runs.

[jlauderdal]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

phil ferro their lead forecaster had it going north or northeast last night away from florida, you make your own call wether that station is reliable, i suggest you watch channel 10, they have max mayfield

[captain east]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

they are not up-to-date with the models....which do not show this situation with the latest runs.

Are you sure because when ever I tell my folks that this thing could hit SF they laugh at me...

[jlauderdal]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

they are not up-to-date with the models....which do not show this situation with the latest runs.

Are you sure because when ever I tell my folks that this thing could hit SF they laugh at me...

lets see what nhc says at 5 then see how the channel 7 reacts, maybe nhc takes it to cuba at 5, who knows

[Blown Away]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

they are not up-to-date with the models....which do not show this situation with the latest runs.

I'll bet everything Gatorcane owns those models diving between Haiti/Cuba don't verify.

[jlauderdal]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

they are not up-to-date with the models....which do not show this situation with the latest runs.

I'll bet everything Gatorcane owns those models diving between Haiti/Cuba don't verify.

i guess you like like pentium 90 and a 15 inch crt

[hwwtdw]

If you listened to Phil Ferro, he said we needed to watch it "in case it surprised us". Based on the models I've seen, if it impacts South Florida directly or indirectly it won't be much of a surprise IMO. The local stations began showing the public the models back around the time of Wilma and years later they still haven't mastered the concepts that most readers here are very familiar with. I think the Miami stations have regressed in their on air expertise. Once again IMO.

[jlauderdal]

If you listened to Phil Ferro, he said we needed to watch it "in case it surprised us". Based on the models I've seen, if it impacts South Florida directly or indirectly it won't be much of a surprise IMO. The local stations began showing the public the models back around the time of Wilma and years later they still haven't mastered the concepts that most readers here are very familiar with. I think the Miami stations have regressed in their on air expertise. Once again IMO.

yes they have regressed, when phil ferro is shooting out the North northeast idea last night and taking about it being good news that was wrong

[Blown Away]

JB on Fox News:

"Do not be surprised if by this time next week see a cat 3/4 (Hanna) hitting Florida from the south." This is going to be a big storm." He compared this year to 1985. He says Gustav "Will likely be a cat 5 before it hits Cuba and then weaken a little before it becomes a cat 4 or 5 again. Landfall will be between where Katrina and Rita hit. The good news is that may be weakening at landfall. But, it may also may head off to the west at the last minute."

His projected path for Hanna takes her SW on Tues and Wed., across South Florida on Friday, into the Gulf and makes landfall in the Fl Panhandle as a cat 3 next Saturday..........

Somebody defend JB for me, how does he get Cat 3/4 when the NHC says TS???

[eastcoastFL]

I dont buy it. Not that far of a sw bend.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast ConeClick image to zoom in – Turn track off

zoom in – Turn track off

[tolakram]

2100Z

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB on Fox News:

"Do not be surprised if by this time next week see a cat 3/4 (Hanna) hitting Florida from the south." This is going to be a big storm." He compared this year to 1985. He says Gustav "Will likely be a cat 5 before it hits Cuba and then weaken a little before it becomes a cat 4 or 5 again. Landfall will be between where Katrina and Rita hit. The good news is that may be weakening at landfall. But, it may also may head off to the west at the last minute."

His projected path for Hanna takes her SW on Tues and Wed., across South Florida on Friday, into the Gulf and makes landfall in the Fl Panhandle as a cat 3 next Saturday..........

Somebody defend JB for me, how does he get Cat 3/4 when the NHC says TS???

After watching him for years he favors the EURO strongly...After how well its done this year i can't say i blame him...

[RL3AO]

I dont buy it. Not that far of a sw bend.

Please provide the meteorological reasoning why the NHC and models and other pro mets on here are wrong. Or is it just because it doesn't happen often so you think it won't happen?

[gatorcane]

well as I suspected NHC did shift the track more west on this run but not alot....

no surprise here.

They like to make gradual shifts in the track.

[jlauderdal]

phil ferro is sticking with cuba, hopefully he is correct

[SWFLA_CANE]

JB on Fox News:

"Do not be surprised if by this time next week see a cat 3/4 (Hanna) hitting Florida from the south." This is going to be a big storm." He compared this year to 1985. He says Gustav "Will likely be a cat 5 before it hits Cuba and then weaken a little before it becomes a cat 4 or 5 again. Landfall will be between where Katrina and Rita hit. The good news is that may be weakening at landfall. But, it may also may head off to the west at the last minute."

His projected path for Hanna takes her SW on Tues and Wed., across South Florida on Friday, into the Gulf and makes landfall in the Fl Panhandle as a cat 3 next Saturday..........

Somebody defend JB for me, how does he get Cat 3/4 when the NHC says TS???

After watching him for years he favors the EURO strongly...Aftr how el its done this year i can't say i blame him...

Not only the EURO but GFDL has a cat 3 107 knots at the end of its run and CMC has a strong cane off the FLA coast. NHC also says that they are being conservative with intensity (probably not that conservative).

[Bocadude85]

well as I suspected NHC did shift the track more west on this run but not alot....

no surprise here.

They like to make gradual shifts in the track.

Yup NHC is further west and the sw dive doesnt seem and pronounced as it was before... slowly shifting west.....

[Blown Away]

well as I suspected NHC did shift the track more west on this run but not alot....

no surprise here.

They like to make gradual shifts in the track.

I agree, I think they are laying the foundation to speed up the track and bring it more W in future advisories.
From 5pm Hanna discussion:

THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER.

[tgenius]

I think they do this twofold.. one to not totally freak out SFL and also to CYA to make sure in case it does shift back south that they don't look foolish for a significant shift. I do wonder what that cone will look like 24 hours from now, as I would imagine at that point SFL is going to be in the outer edge of the big "5day" cone.

[Blown Away]

I think they do this twofold.. one to not totally freak out SFL and also to CYA to make sure in case it does shift back south that they don't look foolish for a significant shift. I do wonder what that cone will look like 24 hours from now, as I would imagine at that point SFL is going to be in the outer edge of the big "5day" cone.

IMO, SFL has to be in that 5 day cone soon. I just can't see the Haiti/Cuba track and the NHC seems confident Hanna is not going to turn N or NE at this point, maybe later in the forecast but Hanna should be very close to SFL at that point.