ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

jinftl, that image is really impressive, look at the southerly inflow, its huge!

[fasterdisaster]

NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST: Honestly, I expect Ike to be the 2nd costliest US hurricane ever behind only Katrina.

depends on landfall, Western Galveston bay, maybe right. Beaumont to SW La, wouldnt think so.

This is true, forgot to mention that.

[jinftl]

agree...the image let's us take a step back....ike is huge and impressive

jinftl, that image is really impressive, look at the southerly inflow, its huge!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST: Honestly, I expect Ike to be the 2nd costliest US hurricane ever behind only Katrina.

Its possible if it hits Houston as a cat3. If it moves just south of Houston then the surge will go up the river...We will have to see if it gets its act together, this is a big storm.

[tolakram]

I'm afraid this isn't how it works.

I'd have to disagree - if the energy is spread over a much larger area, that will affect all aspects of the system, not just the winds...

I'd have to ask the fella in our office who worked on the original SLOSH model - he'd have an answer...

Bigger fetch of winds means greater period of space for the waves and surge to build up, ask any met on here and they will tel lyou the exact same thing Frank, a bigger storm means a bigger surge.

Fill a bath tub, put a single finger in the water and spin it around fast. Now put your entire hand in but spin it slowly. Your hand, even though slower, moves a lot more water.

[ktulu909]

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?

As long as it's not hit by debris, those little guys are pretty durable. Ours stayed intact, in place, and perfectly aligned through strong TS force winds during Ivan, and since the cloud cover wasn't terribly thick, we actually had signal through the entire storm. (We were the 2% of the county that never lost power during the storm for some freak reason)

I have the larger 24" oval DTV dish and it withstood over 130+ from katrina and whatever Gustav just threw at it and never moved.I did install it myself though with 5 half inch X 2.5 inch lag bolts.

I think that it would stay attached to that corner in a tornado,whether the whole roof would or not is another story.

[KWT]

The best way to think of this hurricane in terms of surge anyway, is it has the surge you'd find more typically in a cat-4...

[Pebbles]

actually, the destructive potential is close to that of Katrina

The key is "potential". I just don't see Ike flooding an entire city for weeks.
But hey I've been wrong before. This of course is only MY opinion.

Uh, did you forget what Katrina did to MS and AL. The surge wiped the coastline clean. I think that's what he is referring to.

And actually there probably will be extensive flooding... and you don't know how long it will hang around at this point. Look N.O. may of been a bowl.. but NC is not.. and Floyd flooded over half that state out for weeks. I still remember horrid stink from the sitting water. Many other places have the potention to have flooding water sitting around for days to weeks.. all it takes is a huge amount of water that can't drain fast enough.

[Aristotle]

Well the pressure increase is good news.

Not neccesarily, could be at the end of ERC and about the start dropping again.

Derek Just said the pressure is not increasing its going down! Dropping!

[fasterdisaster]

Eye becoming more pronounced on dvorak

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-bd.html

[tolakram]

[Sabanic]

The areas to the east of Ike will get battered. Impressive storm in size, but as far as where the majority of the nasty weather is he is one-sided for sure like so many others we have seen.

[otowntiger]

jinftl, that image is really impressive, look at the southerly inflow, its huge!

Yeah, it looks like it has outside feeder bands in the Pacific south of Central America!

[Steve]

>>So I put good use to that wood...

Time to break out the Beavis and Bushead avatar again?
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Don't see due west at all rather a slide to the WNW in a stair stepping motion. That's just me though. I could be wrong (per ssd.noaa visible loops).

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

Almost correcting itself Due West to hit the projected forecast point.

[Tireman4]

Good Lord he is big.

[fasterdisaster]

His west side is looking better since the shear is now basically gone:

[tolakram]

[Sabanic]

Almost correcting itself Due West to hit the projected forecast point.

48 hours to go

[cycloneye]