ATL: IKE Discussion

[Cape Verde]

The surge in Galveston Bay should be a big concern to all. Not only is it home to hundreds of thousands of residents, but it's also home to NASA, and it's the home of the largest petrochemical complex on the planet.

If those refineries are knocked offline for any significant period of time, we're all going to be hit by Ike.

[apocalypt-flyer]

So, what do we think how long until Ike makes 'eye-contact'? Won't be long for sure.

[Brent]

The new advisory should be out shortly...any indication on whether the intensity has increased and/or a solid eyewall formed?

The winds could go up to 105(though earlier the winds weren't mixing down so it may stay at 100), otherwise probably no changes. The track will probably shift a little east and be very near or over Galveston.

[jinftl]

Ike is churning and pushing water literally from one end of the Gulf to the other..that the water rises being measure on the North Gulf...and even FL..are taking place without alot of wind really brings home the point that is not a typical cat 2 event with regard to water impacts.

jinftl, that image is really impressive, look at the southerly inflow, its huge!

Yeah, it looks like it has outside feeder bands in the Pacific south of Central America!

[fasterdisaster]

There he goes! Ain't he the picture of a real live star!
You want to follow him whereever you are! And there he goooooooooooooooooooooooes.
He's passing you, you better hurry if you wanna look.
Maybe you'll get him in your autograph book!

[Stormcenter]

actually, the destructive potential is close to that of Katrina

The key is "potential". I just don't see Ike flooding an entire city for weeks.
But hey I've been wrong before. This of course is only MY opinion.

Uh, did you forget what Katrina did to MS and AL. The surge wiped the coastline clean. I think that's what he is referring to.

And actually there probably will be extensive flooding... and you don't know how long it will hang around at this point. Look N.O. may of been a bowl.. but NC is not.. and Floyd flooded over half that state out for weeks. I still remember horrid stink from the sitting water. Many other places have the potention to have flooding water sitting around for days to weeks.. all it takes is a huge amount of water that can't drain fast enough.

Believe me I'm NOT downplaying Ike or any other tropical system. But Ike has some mighty big shoes to fill if he's going to be worse then Katrina when you factor in the lives lost and the financial losses.

[tailgater]

So, what do we think how long until Ike makes 'eye-contact'? Won't be long for sure.

2hrs or less judging from latest IR

[Wx_Warrior]

Beaumont local pro met Greg B gave his update...Probably won't be stronger than a 2 (but that's bad enough)...Windfield rivals Katrina....Big problem will be storm surge.

[Stormcenter]

There he goes! Ain't he the picture of a real live star!
You want to follow him whereever you are! And there he goooooooooooooooooooooooes.
He's passing you, you better hurry if you wanna look.
Maybe you'll get him in your autograph book!

Huh? This is a hurricane and not a movie star right?
I don't think there is anything glamorous about Ike. JHMO

[SunnyThoughts]

Along Highway 90 here, between Escambia County (Fla) and Santa Rosa County..(Pensacola Area) Where the Escambia River meets Pensacola bay...one of the fish camps has 4ft of water in the parking lot.. Just showing how far away the water is rising.

[ALhurricane]

For anybody that is downplaying this storm needs to read the latest Hurricane Local Statement from NWS Houston. It may have already been discussed, but if you haven't read it, then prepare to have your eyes opened.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There he goes! Ain't he the picture of a real live star!
You want to follow him whereever you are! And there he goooooooooooooooooooooooes.
He's passing you, you better hurry if you wanna look.
Maybe you'll get him in your autograph book!

Huh? This is a hurricane and not a movie star right?
I don't think there is anything glamorous about Ike. JHMO

Come on you have to have a interest in seeing tropical cyclones as most people see a star on t.v. I go as far as to say that tropical cyclones are a heck of a lot more interesting then "stars" that are mostly trash. As for this system it is becoming better organized.

[fasterdisaster]

There he goes! Ain't he the picture of a real live star!
You want to follow him whereever you are! And there he goooooooooooooooooooooooes.
He's passing you, you better hurry if you wanna look.
Maybe you'll get him in your autograph book!

Huh? This is a hurricane and not a movie star right?
I don't think there is anything glamorous about Ike. JHMO

LMAO

Hope this explains it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxi9Q_-o ... re=related

[Wx_Warrior]

Texas Governor Rick Perry: "Leave Galveston Now"


AUSTIN — Gov. Rick Perry today urged coastal residents in Hurricane Ike's path to evacuate immediately, describing it as a storm that could swamp houses in Galveston and other areas to at least their eaves.

"My message to Texans is, in the projected impact area, finish your preparations because this is a storm that can have extraordinary impact on them, on their personal belongings," Perry said. "It's on its way."

While the storm presently is a Category 2 hurricane, Perry said it could be at Category 4 level by the time it makes landfall on Saturday.

"I want to emphasize what a dangerous storm this is going to be," he said. "The latest estimates show Ike is going to be coming to shore in the next 48 hours, packing winds in excess of 120 mph and a storm surge of 14 feet or more. And I want to emphasize the more."

Jack Colley, chief of the Governor's Division of Emergency Management, described the storm as hitting like a tidal wave.

"This is a surge tsunami," he said. "This is not rising water. This is water that goes beyond rising."

Regardless of whether Ike is at Category 3 or 4 when it crosses the coast, Colley said, much of Galveston Island will be inundated.

He added that the storm has made nine major changes in course, so most of the coast should be prepared for evacuation.

National Weather Service forecaster Walt Zaleski said the storm also may have major impacts in the San Antonio, Austin and Waco areas because of a high potential for tornadoes in its outer bands.

"These are not going to be your typical Texas tornadoes that are half a mile to a mile wide," Zaleski said. "These are going to be small, short-lived, fast-moving, invisible, often shrouded in rainfall."

Zaleski said tropical storm- force winds of 40-50 mph extend 250 miles from the storm's center.

"This is a big storm," he said. "This is one of the biggest storms we've seen in a while, in terms of its girth."

Perry said this morning that 2,650 government officials listened on a conference call to prepare for the storm. He said he has activated 7,500 members of the National Guard.

The governor said there also are 1,300 buses and 100 ambulances helping to evacuate those who cannot do it themselves. Additionally, six C-130 aircraft from the Texas State Guard are participating in the evacuation of Galveston.

Several lessons that have been learned from Hurricane Rita, in September 2005, have resulted in a plan to move gasoline to retailers in evacuation zones, Perry said, and wristbands will be used to help the state keep track of evacuees' location.

Perry also noted that global positioning satellite systems were put on the evacuation buses so that, when Ike changed direction, the buses could be redirected from Corpus Christi to Galveston.

He said Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas ordered the evacuation of the island after viewing a slide showing projections of the inundation of her city.

"If your house has an eve that's 14 feet, it would be completely under water," Perry said. "That's the type of surge we're talking about all through Galveston and all the way up into the (Houston) Ship Channel."

If a Category 5 storm went up the Ship Channel with no evacuation, Perry said, the estimated death toll would be 1.5 million people.

He stressed that the impact of Ike could also be devastating if people do not follow evacuation orders.

"I cannot over-emphasize the danger that is facing us," he said. "It's going to cause some substantial damage. It's going to knock out power. It's going to cause massive flooding.

"There is a point in time when Mother Nature can overwhelm you with her power, but hopefully, this is not the case."

[baygirl_1]

I'm thinking the same thing David. We can't board our windows: 3 bays, and they're all recessed in brick. No wood frames to screw into for clips to grip. I figure our front rooms are hosed.

This may be a little late (just got home from school and am playing catch-up with reading), but... have you tried the Plylox clips? My sister and her husband have used those. Their windows are recessed in brick and they work well. I'm not sure if Lowe's or Home Depot would still have them, but it's an idea. Also, as someone metioned on the board, I've seen many people do that with a crossbar-type 2X4-- just cut the ends at opposite diagonals and slide it over the board until it fits tight. I've also seen people use 2X4s as braces against the window boards, with the braces running upward from the ground. Does that make sense? It's hard to describe without drawing a picture. Also, diapers are great for soaking up water that may be driven in through windowseals or under doors. I've heard that a good place to protect pictures is in plastic containers or garbage bags (double or triple bagged) in a bathtub as the pipes provide extra support for the walls. That's where I've stored the pictures we couldn't take with us. Fortunately, we've never had to test that theory and I hope y'all won't either. Hang in there--we are all praying for y'all out there!

[cheekygeek]

The key is "potential". I just don't see Ike flooding an entire city for weeks.

Oh really?


The mistake that this graphic (and most people) are still making is that they are looking only at the CATEGORY of the storm. In reality there are TWO components to the damage a hurricane can cause: The damage from the wind and damage from the storm surge. Normally these two things are related, since the storm surge is driven by the wind. But Hurricane Ike is an anomaly (in more ways than one). Buoys are indicating 30.2 foot wave heights, something you would only expect from a Category 4 or 5 storm and this is mostly due to its humongous size.

Houston/Galveston could be looking at a 25-30 foot storm surge even though Ike may not reach Category 4 or 5 wind strength. Ike's CURRENT STRENGTH (as disorganized as it may appear) is ALREADY larger in destructive storm surge strength than Katrina and Wilma were AT THEIR PEAKS.

[Brent]

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

Just a few miles offshore Galveston, Saturday at 1am CDT.

[RL3AO]

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA AND GALVESTON BAYS...15 TO 20 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

[fasterdisaster]

Anyone know what product this is from?


GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION
ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN
DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE
COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL
LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE
WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A
MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK
BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH
WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION
OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

NWS

[WxGuy1]

Compare/contrast with Katrina; even though Ike doesn't have an eye, it is larger than Katrina: