ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Eclipse may be starting, but I can finally see South end of eyewall on long range LIX radar loop.

[Normandy]

Yes, structure wise on radar, it looks like a major hurricane. Recon is going to be interesting.

[soonertwister]

Some comments about Gustav...

1. While he has a somewhat ragged appearance, I can't see any dry air intrusion into the core of this storm before landfall. And the eye is being drawn toward the center of the CDO. See this image:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg

2. While I don't know what the worst possible approaching angle for a hurricane threatening NOLA might be, I doubt that this one is far off. Worse, Gustav is going to have to hustle to get to the forecast path. I'm seeing a storm now that looks like it could be closer to NOLA than planned. Close enough that western NOLA could experience something close to eyewall winds in the NE quadrant, and that's not good news.

3. This storm is coming ashore way ahead of schedule. There's not a chance at all that Gustav is going to arrive on the coast at noon tomorrow, somebody's smoking the wacky pipe.

4. These late bursts of intensification for Gustav have been problematic. Katrina was a cat-5 that had already developed a massive surge to the right of the storm, but was weakening at landfall. I'm not at all convinced that will happen this time. Not only that, Katrina passed over open water to make a third landfall (or fourth) in MS east of NOLA, blocking the progress of surge currents in her path. Gustav's effects are wildly unpredictable, but he's had a long reach in the eastern half for a long time. Winds above tropical storm force have been recorded 220 nm NE of the center, when Gustav was a cat-2. And for those that said that Gustav lost all surge at Cuba, think about that statement. A hurricane is a large round ball of energy and influence, and if you think surge wasn't affected north of Cuba even before Gustav passed north of there, you are kidding yourself.

5. I'm not feeling good about this storm. There are two many variables and unpredictables, and I see no significant weakening and possible strenghthening right up to landfall in the morning. And with the size of this storm, the effects are only beginning at landfall. The last forecast has Gustav stalling for three days in east Texas. Where does all the rain go?

[physicx07]

Did anyone see Jim C. standing in front of a boat in Houma? There was a family with children that plan to ride out the storm on the boat. When asked why they were staying on the boat, the parents said because the kids wanted to. Jim looked so mad that he was about to cry. How can people be so stupid?

Sometimes I wonder about these people...

I hope this is just your sick imagination and joking (I believe you 100%, humor me)

But that entire family, including the children, deserve the Darwin Award for excellency and self ownage.

How do people like that even figure out how to have children?

[HurricaneQueen]

Well, after reading this entire thread, I have finally come to the end (and none too soon as my eyes feel as if they are going to fall out of my head). So, it's off to bed for a little while but not before saying a big prayer for everyone in harm's way especially those in our S2K family and some other special friends who live on the Central Gulf Coast.

Stay safe everyone and God speed. I know what you are experiencing emotionally and physically as I have been through a CAT 4 in the Caribbean and it was most definitely NOT fun-neither were Wilma, Charley and numerous others but we are a resilient bunch. Take extra good care....

Lynn

[ekal]

Recon is going to be very telling. Radar presentation looks excellent.

The most recent frames do show a more symmetric eye, but we have to remember that we are viewing the mid-levels of the storm at this distance.

[PTrackerLA]

my mom is freaking out again because the newscasters keep saying this will be the worst hurricane Lafayette has experienced in some time.

We've had a few freakouts at my house as well . Unfortunately it's probably true, this will be worst blow to Lafayette in decades. I'm thankful the worst won't be here until after noon so I can actually sleep some tonight. I was driving around earlier doing last minute errands and noticed only 50% or less of the homes here were boarded up. People better be prepared for some broken windows if 100mph+ winds move in.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

He has taken a good jog to the WNW.

Now back to the nnw or slighty south of.

[fasterdisaster]

Radar's also looking stronger with that eyewall now closed. Expect at least a couple millibars lower.

[MHurricanes]

Well, Claudette and Dolly both strengthened pretty much up until landfall, but then again the shape of the Texas coast does help storms "tighten up" on landfall sometimes.

No expert, but given this storm's history (intensified heading into Isle of Pines/Cuba, correct?) I would think that this could slowly intensify up until landfall.

Texas,

I and fellow family members had the unhappy experience of listening to hurricane Charley and waking up to its aftermath. Charley, by the time it reached Seminole County, Florida, was a low catergory 1 storm (and caused incredible damage). But it was a storm that blew up to 140 mph winds within a few hours as it approached the southwest coast of Florida. Charley's rapid strengthneing caught everybody by surprise, especially the poor souls in Port Charlotte.

By the way, to the best of my recollection, no one predicted the rapid strengthening.

- MHurricanes

[gilbert88]

Well, apparently Gustav is holding out pretty well... it doesn't look like it will weaken too much before landfall... Actually it may intensify a bit before reaching LA.

And not that I'm surprised by that, but the NHC REALLY nailed this one.

[mvtrucking]

Go west-nw Gustav?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

I would think recon will show its just east of the NHC forecast points and its looking like it will stay
pretty much NW until landfall. NE Texas may get a bunch of rain & some wind in the next few
days, but no hurricane.JMO

[Dean4Storms]

Good Sat loop here........

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8ir.html

[fasterdisaster]

Since the eye is now fully on radar are we going to get two-hour updates?

[fasterdisaster]

Good Sat loop here........

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8ir.html

This also shows significant organization.

[ConvergenceZone]

OMG is this like the smallest eye on record?
check out this IR shot.... It's literally a pinpoint now.....Can that be real?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[Just Joshing You]

This isn't a pinhole eye guys... the eye is about 40 nm wide.

[WxGuy1]

OMG is this like the smallest eye on record?
check out this IR shot.... It's literally a pinpoint now.....Can that be real?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

I think the eye warmed a bit (filled in a bit) and elongated. So, that blue speck you see is probably just a function of the color-scale used.

[fasterdisaster]

OMG is this like the smallest eye on record?
check out this IR shot.... It's literally a pinpoint now.....Can that be real?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Wilma was 2 miles wide!

[physicx07]

Did anyone see Jim C. standing in front of a boat in Houma? There was a family with children that plan to ride out the storm on the boat. When asked why they were staying on the boat, the parents said because the kids wanted to. Jim looked so mad that he was about to cry. How can people be so stupid?

Sometimes I wonder about these people...

Very stupid in deed, I know many family and friends who decided to ride this out. Now, we are in Tx worried about them. But we can only save those who want to be saved! Ya'll can check out conditions on Htv (Houma's tv station) website for the time being anyway. http://www.kfolkjun.com/htv/WatchNow/tabid/54/Default.aspx

Well, I have to make this one comment regarding behaviour during a storm. I fell even more in love with watching weather/storms/hurricanes after the 24 hr TWC came out back in the late 80s, but I also see an alarming trend that I think has only been promoted by media outlets. People like attention, people like fame, people like being important; however people generally are afraid of pain, injury, dying. I think the way TWC and other television outlets handle storms is sometimes much more irresponsible than a few OT or somewhat degrading posts that occur on S2K. I mean, how can a reporter stand on a street corner in N.O. talking about how "crazy" the winds are during a tornado warning and legitimately ask people to please go to the lowest possible floor and most interior room of the building they are in? People follow behaviour based on the punishment/reward system. We need to stop rewarding crazy reporting behaviour... OR we need to stop saying that people that do risky things during storms deserve a DARWIN award. Seriously, saying that Jim Cantore deserves a Darwin Award could get me in trouble here, but not saying that about this family? Sure the kids don't deserve to be put in danger, but the fact that reporter after reporter has chosen the same "sort" of behaviour makes those that don't know as much make BAD decisions. Agree?

I don't think anyone who has kids should even think about doing such stupid crap. Imagine if the parents die and somehow the kids survive. Not much better for the kids.