ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hurricane Cheese]

Going from my memory (which is pretty good when it comes to Hurricanes but still just my memory nonetheless), Gustav is really reminding me of what IVAN looked like when he was about to hit the panhandle. We all remember how devastating that was. If an Ivan-like Cat 3 hits west of New Orleans? Well, I don't want to speculate but I think people have to use comparisons with other large land-falling Cat 3 gulf storms (Opal, Ivan, etc.) as a good barometer as what we can expect.

[Normandy]

Yes, that reading was from 400m above the surface. So winds that far N are below hurricane intensity.

[HarlequinBoy]

There's at least one tornado reports in Louisiana so far.

0823 PM NEAR MOUTH OF MISS. RIVER LA TORNADO
08/31/08 PLAQUEMINES REPORTED BY RADIO OPERATOR.

[ConvergenceZone]

Uh, it most definitely is strengthening. Just because it doesn't have a 10 foot wide eye doesn't mean it's weakening.

So you are sure then that the next update on Gustav is going to show stronger winds then huh? Looking forward to seeing what they moved it up to then


P.S.. Satellite Eclipse coming up, so we'll need to rely on radar anyway...

[MHurricanes]

This isn't a pinhole eye guys... the eye is about 40 nm wide.

Then it must not have an eye on IR satellite afterall, it must be just dry air, because the eye I"m seeing is a pinpoint.... Look at the link below and you tell me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

It does have an eye, it's the big round orange thing, but the tiny blue speck is just a small area of slightly warmer cloud tops.

The eye was much more discernable a few satellite pics ago. It is now the pinhole that you see. By the way, this storm appears to have intensified over the past hour.

[mattpetre]

I believe the satellite and radar frames are beginning to show the beginnings of the more westwardly turn finally. The dry air and pseudo ULL to the S. are the only things that I can't figure out as far as how they will effect this more westward motion.

[fasterdisaster]

952 MILLIBARS!

[soonertwister]

What appears to be a pinhole eye is actually an eye that is clouded over in all but a very small region, giving the illusion of a pinhole. Notice that the "pinhole" is not very symmetrical. Classic pinhole eyes are extremely circular and clear.

Among catastrophic tropical storms, Cyclone Tracy holds the record for both the smallest eyewall and the smallest overall system size at landfall.

Christmas Eve, 1974, Darwin Australia.
http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy/advanc ... Tracy.html

[rjgator]

What appears to be a pinhole eye is actually an eye that is clouded over in all but a very small region, giving the illusion of a pinhole. Notice that the "pinhole" is not very symmetrical. Classic pinhole eyes are extremely circular and clear.

Among catastrophic tropical storms, Cyclone Tracy holds the record for both the smallest eyewall and the smallest overall system size at landfall.

Christmas Eve, 1974, Darwin Australia.
http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy/advanc ... Tracy.html

If the eye starts to contract it is typically a sign of strengthing (I am no expert). This does not appear to be happening to me

[mattpetre]

What appears to be a pinhole eye is actually an eye that is clouded over in all but a very small region, giving the illusion of a pinhole. Notice that the "pinhole" is not very symmetrical. Classic pinhole eyes are extremely circular and clear.

Among catastrophic tropical storms, Cyclone Tracy holds the record for both the smallest eyewall and the smallest overall system size at landfall.

Christmas Eve, 1974, Darwin Australia.
http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy/advanc ... Tracy.html

Now that deserves a Darwin Award! J/K, but I hate that people feel the necessity to belittle others decisions to make them selves feel more worthy, smarter, etc...

[Hurricane Cheese]

Looks like they just extrapolated 952 mb...storm continues to be solid major hurricane it seems

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW, here's my latest NWS forecast:

Overnight: Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Labor Day: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 84. North wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 50 and 70 mph. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday Night: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. North wind 60 to 80 mph decreasing to between 45 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[HarlequinBoy]

952 is usually a solid Cat 3 pressure.

[HarlequinBoy]

FWIW, here's my latest NWS forecast:

Overnight: Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Labor Day: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 84. North wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 50 and 70 mph. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday Night: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. North wind 60 to 80 mph decreasing to between 45 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wow, that's scary.

[fasterdisaster]

It's a drop of 4 millibars so I wouldn't be surprised to see a small increase in winds.

[physicx07]

952 is usually a solid Cat 3 pressure.

So far the extrap pressures have been lower than the sonde pressures they find. I think a Vortex should be coming up momentarily since they have just passed the eye.

[bahamaswx]

952 is usually a solid Cat 3 pressure.

So far the extrap pressures have been lower than the sonde pressures they find. I think a Vortex should be coming up momentarily since they have just passed the eye.

Indeed. Wait for the drop, folks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WWL-TV 4 (Channel 310 in HOU) suggesting that NOLA, especially West Bank, has avoided a complete catastrophe because Gustav didn't become a Cat 4 as predicted.


A tad premature, IMHO, but I hope they're right...

[fasterdisaster]

WWL-TV 4 (Channel 310 in HOU) suggesting that NOLA, especially West Bank, has avoided a complete catastrophe because Gustav didn't become a Cat 4 as predicted.


A tad premature, IMHO, but I hope they're right...

[soonertwister]

What appears to be a pinhole eye is actually an eye that is clouded over in all but a very small region, giving the illusion of a pinhole. Notice that the "pinhole" is not very symmetrical. Classic pinhole eyes are extremely circular and clear.

Among catastrophic tropical storms, Cyclone Tracy holds the record for both the smallest eyewall and the smallest overall system size at landfall.

Christmas Eve, 1974, Darwin Australia.
http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy/advanc ... Tracy.html

Now that deserves a Darwin Award! J/K, but I hate that people feel the necessity to belittle others decisions to make them selves feel more worthy, smarter, etc...

Darwinian perhaps, but it was on this board that I learned about Cyclone Tracy. It was a classic case of lethargy and confidence in their invulnerability that helped make that storm what it was. I will say this, it's one of the strangest storms I've ever read about.

/simply informational...