ATL: IKE Discussion

[yzerfan]

Here's some surge photos from the FL Panhandle, and the eye of Ike didn't come anywhere close to here.

US 98- the main commuter route between Ft. Walton Beach and Destin (they later had all four lanes go underwater, and the road won't reopen until Friday morning earliest)

http://nwfdailynews.emeraldcoastphotosw ... thispage=1

Okaloosa Island fishing pier:

http://nwfdailynews.emeraldcoastphotosw ... thispage=1

A neighborhood on Destin's Holiday Isle that had previously lost their protective sand berm during Gustav (note idiot on pilings). Hoilday Isle really is too low to have the kind of development on it that it does.

http://nwfdailynews.emeraldcoastphotosw ... thispage=1

http://nwfdailynews.emeraldcoastphotosw ... thispage=1

http://nwfdailynews.emeraldcoastphotosw ... thispage=1

[crazycajuncane]

So did The Weather Channel see all this coming? Katrina and now Ike. It could happen tomorrow, well folks it just may be happening tomorrow.

My thoughts are especially with those on Galveston Island. We all need to hope they don't get a direct storm surge.

[thetruesms]

Looks like its still taking in dry air. I don't see it tightening until late tomorrow, if it does at all. Still horrible surge potential in any event.

And you base this on what??

You can see it on the last satellite pass...north side of the storm.

I see what you're looking at. This seems to have happened fairly frequently since Ike started strengthening - Dry air tries to intrude, but can never seem to make it into the storm's core

[hiflyer]

katrina and andrew were both night storms for me....as I said..US landfall and most storms...and yes Wilma went over my head in daylight and that was far better....and a change.

thinking of the book Isaacs Storm right now....
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isaacsstorm/
and the track
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isa ... index.html

From the website:
In order to prevent such disasters in the future, the island constructed a 17-foot seawall, and a tremendous grade raising project was begun. Galveston's seawall now extends 54,790 feet, one-third of Galveston's ocean front. The wall stands 16 to 20 feet wide at the base and at the top ranges from 3 to 5 feet in width, and is composed of granite, sandstone, and concrete. Many structures were jacked up during the grade raising while dredges poured 4 to 6 feet of sand beneath them.

[crazycajuncane]

NHC on target again 4-5 days out...kudos again they need to start 7 day forecast on future storms

4 days out they had landfall at 27.5N 97.0W, rtd2.

They now have it at 29.0N 95.0W

There has been a consistent underestimation of the northern movement by about .5º in just about every 12 hour forecast. That is why the track keeps shifting north.

Cheers

Rod

I hope the poster wasn't serious about a 7 day track. I don't believe this storm is hitting South Texas / Mexico.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I see the eye is still open based on the last recon data that came in.... not strengthening in the short term that's for sure...

[fasterdisaster]

katrina and andrew were both night storms for me....as I said..US landfall and most storms...and yes Wilma went over my head in daylight and that was far better....and a change.

thinking of the book Isaacs Storm right now....
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isaacsstorm/
and the track
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isa ... index.html

From the website:
In order to prevent such disasters in the future, the island constructed a 17-foot seawall, and a tremendous grade raising project was begun. Galveston's seawall now extends 54,790 feet, one-third of Galveston's ocean front. The wall stands 16 to 20 feet wide at the base and at the top ranges from 3 to 5 feet in width, and is composed of granite, sandstone, and concrete. Many structures were jacked up during the grade raising while dredges poured 4 to 6 feet of sand beneath them.

The 'night landfalls' you're talking about is pure coincidence. There is no reason storms would hit at night instead of day.

[Pebbles]

Guys, the recon plane is having troubles getting a center fix due to the undercast (it's right there in the vortex data message).. and they are IN the storm. Trying to figure out a wobble right now from sat or talking about direction it's going because of the vortex position just taken right now is really is not an option.

Edit: one of these days I will learn how to spell and proofread before hitting enter (or maybe i'll get lucky and the mods will add a spell check feature. )

[attallaman]

OT:

Last week someone posted a comment about a cool hurricane tracking site which was free, I went to it, downloaded their software and began using it. Today I attempted to use it, a pop up message appeared telling me my trial membership to the site had ended, if I wanted to extend my membership for one year click here and pay a $34.95 annual fee with a major credit card. I didn't do it. I'm not here enough to justify the expense, I'm only in here during tropical season. Can anyone here recommend a good hurricane tracking site that's free, no annual fee? The name of the site I used for a week was Tracking the Eye.net.

[fasterdisaster]

Eyewall on its way to being closed:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[jinftl]

i guess you could say storms in the early part of the season are actually more likely to happen in daylight since the days are longest....after september 21 or so when nights start to grow longer than day, a landfall in the dark is more likely.....but that is really pushing it i know!

katrina and andrew were both night storms for me....as I said..US landfall and most storms...and yes Wilma went over my head in daylight and that was far better....and a change.

thinking of the book Isaacs Storm right now....
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isaacsstorm/
and the track
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isa ... index.html

From the website:
In order to prevent such disasters in the future, the island constructed a 17-foot seawall, and a tremendous grade raising project was begun. Galveston's seawall now extends 54,790 feet, one-third of Galveston's ocean front. The wall stands 16 to 20 feet wide at the base and at the top ranges from 3 to 5 feet in width, and is composed of granite, sandstone, and concrete. Many structures were jacked up during the grade raising while dredges poured 4 to 6 feet of sand beneath them.

The 'night landfalls' you're talking about is pure coincidence. There is no reason storms would hit at night instead of day.

[fasterdisaster]

i guess you could say storms in the early part of the season are actually more likely to happen in daylight since the days are longest....after september 21 or so when nights start to grow longer than day, a landfall in the dark is more likely.....but that is really pushing it i know!

katrina and andrew were both night storms for me....as I said..US landfall and most storms...and yes Wilma went over my head in daylight and that was far better....and a change.

thinking of the book Isaacs Storm right now....
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isaacsstorm/
and the track
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/isa ... index.html

From the website:
In order to prevent such disasters in the future, the island constructed a 17-foot seawall, and a tremendous grade raising project was begun. Galveston's seawall now extends 54,790 feet, one-third of Galveston's ocean front. The wall stands 16 to 20 feet wide at the base and at the top ranges from 3 to 5 feet in width, and is composed of granite, sandstone, and concrete. Many structures were jacked up during the grade raising while dredges poured 4 to 6 feet of sand beneath them.

The 'night landfalls' you're talking about is pure coincidence. There is no reason storms would hit at night instead of day.

And also September 21 is past the peak of the season.

[KWT]

Hmm, I see the eye is still open based on the last recon data that came in.... not strengthening in the short term that's for sure...

True but then again recon also shows this has just the one eyewall, there has been a change in terms of the structrue of Ike over the previous 12hrs, it remains to be seen whether these will bring strengthening or not.

[Pebbles]

OT:
Can anyone here recommend a good hurricane tracking site that's free, no annual fee?

PM incoming with info

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hurricanetrack.com will be getting a front row seat for Ike! They will be setting up their equipment on Galveston Island! I just paid for their subscription service today. Its been alot of fun today watching them and hearing what they are talking about as they travel to Galveston! lol

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I see the eye is still open based on the last recon data that came in.... not strengthening in the short term that's for sure...

True but then again recon also shows this has just the one eyewall, there has been a change in terms of the structrue of Ike over the previous 12hrs, it remains to be seen whether these will bring strengthening or not.

KWT, You notice that NHC keeps pushing the CAT3 back to a later time? Now they are saying not until 2:00 pm tomorrow
and a cat 3 is only 15 mph more then now, so that tells me that they don't think it will strengthen in the short term either...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really feel bad for you guys down in Houston and Galveston and all the surrounding areas. It is hard for me to believe that I lived there just a few months ago, and that I could have very well been going through this storm as well if I had not moved! I hope in the end that all of you guys come through this one ok and that no one experiences any significant damage to their properties or injuries to their loved ones!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hmm, I see the eye is still open based on the last recon data that came in.... not strengthening in the short term that's for sure...

True but then again recon also shows this has just the one eyewall, there has been a change in terms of the structrue of Ike over the previous 12hrs, it remains to be seen whether these will bring strengthening or not.

KWT, You notice that NHC keeps pushing the CAT3 back to a later time? Now they are saying not until 2:00 pm tomorrow
and a cat 3 is only 15 mph more then now, so that tells me that they don't think it will strengthen in the short term either...

As far as strength goes I don't think the NHC really knows what Ike will do. Its been stuck in this EWRC for so long that really no one knows. It could quickly finish up the EWRC with in the next couple hours and bomb out to cat 4 in a short amount of time for all we know!

[KWT]

KWT, You notice that NHC keeps pushing the CAT3 back to a later time? Now they are saying not until 2:00 pm tomorrow
and a cat 3 is only 15 mph more then now, so that tells me that they don't think it will strengthen in the short term either...

Its quite possible this won't strengthen, but its got over 24hrs still which is ample time if its inner core does decide to get going, of course who knows. Personally I suspect even if it stays as a 2 we've got a very severe situation, the surge is closer to a top end 4/5 right now, I believe its not far off the surge that Katrina had at its peak right now.

[terrapintransit]

Hmm, I see the eye is still open based on the last recon data that came in.... not strengthening in the short term that's for sure...

True but then again recon also shows this has just the one eyewall, there has been a change in terms of the structrue of Ike over the previous 12hrs, it remains to be seen whether these will bring strengthening or not.

KWT, You notice that NHC keeps pushing the CAT3 back to a later time? Now they are saying not until 2:00 pm tomorrow
and a cat 3 is only 15 mph more then now, so that tells me that they don't think it will strengthen in the short term either...

Just heard Steve Lyons saying there is currently sinking air ahead of the storm keeping it from strengthening right now but once that goes away (soon) it will begin strengthening.......Get Ready..