ATL: IKE Discussion

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 112215
AF303 2709A IKE HDOB 40 20080911
220500 2624N 09104W 6965 03038 9864 +133 +133 025069 070 999 999 03
220530 2621N 09104W 6966 03036 9862 +134 +134 024068 069 999 999 03
220600 2619N 09104W 6965 03033 9861 +134 +134 020072 073 999 999 03
220630 2617N 09105W 6967 03030 9860 +136 +136 014069 071 999 999 03
220700 2614N 09105W 6960 03038 9862 +133 +133 012068 069 999 999 03
220730 2612N 09105W 6968 03026 9870 +126 +126 010068 068 999 999 03
220800 2610N 09105W 6969 03024 9861 +134 +134 009067 068 999 999 03
220830 2607N 09106W 6963 03034 9854 +140 +140 007065 065 999 999 03
220900 2605N 09106W 6968 03026 9852 +141 +141 007066 067 999 999 03
220930 2603N 09106W 6960 03038 9856 +137 +137 007070 072 999 999 03
221000 2600N 09106W 6964 03036 9867 +129 +129 002068 069 999 999 03
221030 2558N 09106W 6968 03031 9865 +133 +133 357067 068 999 999 03
221100 2556N 09107W 6961 03041 9868 +131 +131 356065 065 999 999 03
221130 2553N 09107W 6963 03041 9866 +132 +132 352067 068 999 999 03
221200 2551N 09107W 6970 03028 9870 +129 +129 349067 068 999 999 03
221230 2549N 09107W 6962 03038 9873 +124 +124 349066 066 999 999 03
221300 2546N 09108W 6965 03037 9876 +124 +124 348066 066 999 999 03
221330 2544N 09108W 6968 03034 9876 +126 +126 344064 065 999 999 03
221400 2542N 09108W 6964 03037 9876 +128 +128 342065 067 999 999 03
221430 2540N 09108W 6960 03048 9879 +129 +129 342065 066 999 999 03
$$

[Weatherfreak14]

Convection is weakneing but doesn't really mean much because before we all know the core could be sorting itself out...

Note that whilst convection has weakened, the overall structure has improved in the previous 12hrs or so.

NHC would have downgraded Ike if they didn't think it was 85kts anymore...that should end that debate IMO.

I 100% agree. Even though the cloud tops are warming it gives the chance of the structure to take better shape, and like almost every night so far it seems that Ike trys to go under a RI phase, it may not succeed but if it does get its structure fixed before tonight we may see a steady strenghening.

[Lowpressure]

Hunter report at 101kts fl with 950.1mb, I do not see the debate over this being a 1 or 2.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not trying to hype or dooms-day this, but I'm getting very concerned about the lax attitude of some people choosing not to evac from Galveston and portions of SE Houston.

While watching the 5 p.m. newscast on KTRK-TV (http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sec ... id=6102015), one guy in SE Texas sent his family to N. Texas but is staying because he has too many pets to take care of.

Also, while watching the highway traffic flow from a traffic copter, the flow of traffic appears light to me.

Finally, one resident (filling her gas tank up) was asked by a reporter: "Are you staying?

She replied "Uhm, yeah, I think so, the last storm didn't really do much."

Next question - "Why are you filling up?" - "In case we have to go."

I sure hope she doesn't think that they are going to be able to go about midnight tomorrow night.

[HouTXmetro]

Can anyone confirm movement?

[KWT]

Texas Snowman, I believe they have taken the idea that it may well be better to shelter the people then try to evac people this late in the day and given the huge size of the hurricane I suspect thats probably the best course of action, just hope it doesn't backfire....

[weunice]

I personally think that the near miss with Ivan set up, in some ways, what happened with Katrina in south Louisiana. Fortunately it seems like Louisiana residents took Gustav more seriously BECAUSE of what happened with Katrina. I was very impressed with how people dealt with Gustav (for the most part) ... I worry that the Galveston-Houston area has its Ivan-Katrina setup with Rita-Ike. It had been a LONG time since Betsy for New Orleans. Its been a long time for the Houston area. I hope I am completely in left field here and more importantly I hope I am WRONG.

[dwg71]

Hunter report at 101kts fl with 950.1mb, I do not see the debate over this being a 1 or 2.

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z

current time 22:22Z, that was 3 1/2 hours ago and the heavy convection has died off.. It is what it is. NHC calls it a Cat 2, so it is. All i said is that current recon will not be able to support it.

[MHurricanes]

Convection is weakneing but doesn't really mean much because before we all know the core could be sorting itself out...

Note that whilst convection has weakened, the overall structure has improved in the previous 12hrs or so.

NHC would have downgraded Ike if they didn't think it was 85kts anymore...that should end that debate IMO.

If this makes the turn towards Galveston-Houstan, it will become the hurricane of the new century. I don't envy the good folks on the receiving end of this monster. (Charley was small in Orlando, but powerful after 150 miles.)

- MHurricanes

[caneman]

I agree with you, I stated this yesterday. If you get enough false alarms people begin to not take it serious. It unfortunately takes a Katrina in your area to emphasis the importance of evacs. Human nature.

[HarlequinBoy]

I personally think that the near miss with Ivan set up, in some ways, what happened with Katrina in south Louisiana. Fortunately it seems like Louisiana residents took Gustav more seriously BECAUSE of what happened with Katrina. I was very impressed with how people dealt with Gustav (for the most part) ... I worry that the Galveston-Houston area has its Ivan-Katrina setup with Rita-Ike. It had been a LONG time since Betsy for New Orleans. Its been a long time for the Houston area. I hope I am completely in left field here and more importantly I hope I am WRONG.

I think your reasoning is logical.


Also I think a lot of people think Gustav was not destructive. I know we know better, but I think the general population think Gustav wasn't that bad and overhyped.

[KWT]

The other thing I will say is with the regions of weaker convection circulating around the system Ike isn't strengthening right now either, seems to be in a constant state right now.

[jabman98]

Hot and very humid here now. I'm just north of downtown Houston. Cloudy and occasional drops of rain. Hard work getting the yard cleared and covering windows.

[Sanibel]

You can almost see the eye in the NNE top part on visible loop. Nice compact 17 mile wide eye that looks like business. If I lived in Houston I'd be expecting this IMO.

Better round CDO and center circulation. Dry air still to WNW half.

[Texas Snowman]

No, I'm not talking about getting people in non-surge zones to evac.

As Rita proved, it is virtually impossible to effectively empty Harris and Galveston Counties in a short period of time without a lot of problems. If residents don't live in a storm surge zone, they are told to shelter in place.

But what I'm talking about are people in the surge zones who are choosing to stay.

I read on the Houston Chron site earlier that a spokesman for the Galveston mayor said:

"She said many Galveston residents were ignoring the evacuation order this time and taking their chances because of memories of grueling evacuation journeys that lasted 20 hours to 30 hours in 2005.

"A large percentage is not going to leave based on the fiasco last time," she said.

I sure hope that is changing or will change in the hours to come...

[KWT]

Hunter report at 101kts fl with 950.1mb, I do not see the debate over this being a 1 or 2.

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z

current time 22:22Z, that was 3 1/2 hours ago and the heavy convection has died off.. It is what it is. NHC calls it a Cat 2, so it is. All i said is that current recon will not be able to support it.

212900 2601N 08807W 7540 02361 9890 +140 +140 159097 099 061 015 00

That was just about an hour ago now, convection overlal is about the same now as it was an hour ago, that supports cat-2....

[dhweather]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

NDBC Buoy 42001 reports 23 foot wave heights now, down from 30 feet at noon.

[Sanibel]

There's a simple indicator here that will show up if Ike decides to go off. It will blow its eye clear.

[dhweather]

No, I'm not talking about getting people in non-surge zones to evac.

As Rita proved, it is virtually impossible to effectively empty Harris and Galveston Counties in a short period of time without a lot of problems. If residents don't live in a storm surge zone, they are told to shelter in place.

But what I'm talking about are people in the surge zones who are choosing to stay.

I read on the Houston Chron site earlier that a spokesman for the Galveston mayor said:

"She said many Galveston residents were ignoring the evacuation order this time and taking their chances because of memories of grueling evacuation journeys that lasted 20 hours to 30 hours in 2005.

"A large percentage is not going to leave based on the fiasco last time," she said.

I sure hope that is changing or will change in the hours to come...

Hurricane fatiuge is really setting in bad - not just in Texas, but all along the gulf coast. The period of increased activity in the last decade is taking its toll on people in Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama and Florida. Several strikes from tropical depressions to major hurricanes, multiple evacuations, its causing problems.

I just hope people in low lying areas get out, otherwise they will be in grave danger even if Ike weakens to a TS or cat 1 because the ocean simply can't slow down as fast as the atmosphere, and the water will keep pushing into Galveston Bay until Ike is gone.

[Texas Snowman]

Personally, I think all of this discussion about "Ike is a 1, Ike is a 2" are moot and dangerous. People may hear "Cat 2" winds and think, well, that's not so bad, so I'll avoid the traffic and ride this out.

But what about Cat 5 like water? That's potentially what's coming.

Already, watching the TV feed on KTRK, water is covering beaches along the Texas coast, is to the bottom of the sea wall at Galveston (two hours before LOW tide), and Ike is still 30 or so hours from landfall.

Read Jeff Masters blog from this afternoon or Derek's forecast. The water from this storm is HUGE and potentially CATASTROPHIC and it is currently targeting one of the most populated areas in the United States.

Finally, Katrina was weakening steadily when it hit Mississippi but we all remember the obliterated Mississippi coastline.