ATL: IKE Discussion

[Pebbles]

I'm looking at the current sat loops and thinking there's an awefully lot of dry air getting pulled in there and I was thinking this was suppose to ease up. Any Met's care to comment? Is that indeed dry air? Where's it coming from? Anything that makes you think it will continue or discontinue over the next 24hours?

Edit: Last frame of loops i was looking at.

[Ed Mahmoud]

64 nm Southn of Dauphin, AL.




My gut is Ike doesn't get much stronger, but with seas like that so far from the center, and the coast road South of San Luis Pass in Brazoria County already impassable, it really doesn't need to get any stronger. I'm also hearing second hand from our pumper near Gueydan that water is at LA 14 in places.


I'd evacuate if I was in an evacuation zone...

[angelwing]

Ok, my friend lives 50 miles from the coast south of interstate 10 and he has told me he's not leaving...is it going to reach him? Al he has told me is that he is expecting winds but I am worried about storm surge and he is being stubborn and is going to stay...I have no clue about the layout there, so am I worrying for nothing?

[fasterdisaster]

Andrew was so costly because it hit both FL and LA. It did some pretty major damage in LA in addition to FL. (and yes, I know FL was devasted, but this awful storm double dipped)

I think only 1B of the 26B was from Louisiana though (not saying it wasn't bad in LA!)

[Rod Hagen]

From the visual loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html it certainly seems to have turned more to the west again. Pretty much running along 26ºN in fact.

[HurricaneQueen]

We have incoming surge, rainfall and lots of tree and powerline
damage...why people would want to stay is beyond me. Except maybe they don't think their animals will be okay? They really need to be in touch with the local emergency coordinators who have prepped for situations like these and who have the full financial and logistic support of the State and Federal governments. Call 211 and express your concern! The Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management has stated that they will 'leave nobody behind'. If you don't let someone know what you need then they cannot be there for you. Call 211 or 311 Texans! We are down to 16 hours or so...

Well said, Annie. Unfortunately, in here we are preaching to the choir. I don't pretend to know what kind of public announcements are being made in TX and LA but I would think (hope) they would be getting the most important implications and the seriousness of the situation facing them out to the general public. I understand to a certain extent the complacency and denial. This is made more complicated if they have pets who would not do well if separated from their owners. Unfortunately, if they stay in high risk areas they may find themselves separated only to come together on "rainbow bridge".

Both fear and ignorance are great paralyzers and I suppose many are suffering from one or both. IMHO, very strong language from the highest authorities is needed to try to get through to those who are risking all by not leaving.

My thoughts and prayers are with ALL who may suffer the devastating effects of Ike.

Lynn

Sorry for OT but this is where my thoughts are tonight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look at this loop


Clouds near the center rotating much slower than the clouds around it. Weirod.

[Brent]

Ok, my friend lives 50 miles from the coast south of interstate 10 and he has told me he's not leaving...is it going to reach him? Al he has told me is that he is expecting winds but I am worried about storm surge and he is being stubborn and is going to stay...I have no clue about the layout there, so am I worrying for nothing?

What city is it? 50 miles inland is certainly safe from surge though(Katrina's only went 5 miles inland or so), assuming it's not close to Galveston Bay or something.

[tailgater]

Eye is starting to show itself. Still a little open on the western edge.

[fasterdisaster]

Look at this loop


Clouds near the center rotating much slower than the clouds around it. Weirod.

That's because it's the eye.

[amawea]

In studying that sat. loop I believe you can just begin to make out some convection around what may be the new eye forming.

[Sanibel]

Eye is starting to show itself. Still a little open on the western edge.

Glad someone else is seeing that. The eye is a small little tight eye just showing up under the finger of convection on the south part of the eye. Hazy but obvious. A mean looking eye.

It is tracking on trop points even though the upper eye that is moving out from above it looks west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just cannot believe how big this storm is! Tropical force winds extend out 275 miles?! That's insane!

[jinftl]

$1 billion of Andrew's $25 billion in damage was done in LA according to NHC report....plus andrew is not the only storm on the list to have multiple landfallas or areas of impac. Katrina, Rita, and Betsy did damage in Florida before their gulf landfalls.

Not surprising...the more areas a storm hits, the damage adds up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

This is adjusted for inflation just so everyone knows.

7 of those top 10 costliest systems made landfall in Florida with Katrina only as a CAT 1 though.

Andrew was so costly because it hit both FL and LA. It did some pretty major damage in LA in addition to FL. (and yes, I know FL was devasted, but this awful storm double dipped)

[Pebbles]

Look at this loop
Clouds near the center rotating much slower than the clouds around it. Weirod.

Wow that is bizarre. Humm my totally noneducated thoughts is this will cause the windfield to continue to expand? I usually am pretty confident on what I'm seeing on most storms but this whole set up is so unusual it has me stumped. The hurricane is just not acting like a normal storm. The core is just... as you said WEIROD!

[RL3AO]

Look at this loop


Clouds near the center rotating much slower than the clouds around it. Weirod.

Wouldn't that be normal? It would be like the inside horse on a carousel go slower than the outside horse because it has to cover less distance in the same amount of time?

[jinftl]

Not that andrew was not bad in LA....shows how really bad he was in FL. 96 cents of every dollar of damage from andrew was in florida.

Andrew was so costly because it hit both FL and LA. It did some pretty major damage in LA in addition to FL. (and yes, I know FL was devasted, but this awful storm double dipped)

I think only 1B of the 26B was from Louisiana though (not saying it wasn't bad in LA!)

[TSmith274]

Ray Nagin just said that there are hotel rooms available in New Orleans and that he's worked a deal with the hotels to offer deep discounts to evacuees from Texas FYI. So if anyone is looking for rooms, check out N.O.

[Sanibel]

You could be seeing the outer eyewall rotating faster than the inner.

[Wthrman13]

Look at this loop
Clouds near the center rotating much slower than the clouds around it. Weirod.

Wow that is bizarre. Humm my totally noneducated thoughts is this will cause the windfield to continue to expand? I usually am pretty confident on what I'm seeing on most storms but this whole set up is so unusual it has me stumped. The hurricane is just not acting like a normal storm. The core is just... as you said WEIROD!

That's leftover convective debris from the old inner eye, which has pretty much collapsed. That's why it's not rotating as fast as the clouds outside of that radius. If that debris were to clear out, you would see quite clearly the new, larger eye.