ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mathwhizz]

If you extrapolate the current motion on the Mobile Long Range loop, landfall looks between new orleans and houma which would put the northeast quadrant over New Orleans since the eye is 30 miles diameter.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[Janie2006]

TWC reporting 75 mph wind gusts near the Southwest Pass.

Also as per TWC, Tornado Watch 876 in NW Florida has been cancelled, with the exception of the extreme western part of the Panhandle.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like the WNW wobble has stopped and now it's going to a NNW wobble. The timing of these wobbles may mean the difference between large parts of New Orleans flooding and staying dry.

It's going to end up going exactly where they had it....it not's wever going to be an exact line.
Look at the loop below.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

It's a lot easier to see the eye on radar. Going NNW now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

4N 3W 2:00am update...moving NW

[Rod Hagen]

A Yes, I know we should not be driving around, but Pelican Point is only 3 miles down from us. What strikes me as odd is that just now I took my dog outside and the winds are calm as can be.

The old calm before the storm, eh!

Three miles can be a mighty long way when your car is flooded, the roads are full of fallen power lines and stuck vehicles and the wind has started to howl and getting worse fast.

Even though its moving a bit to the west of you , you remain in the front right hand quadrant. The surge is going to get a lot nastier and the winds around Mobile are expected to reach tropical storm strength. I reckon it is time to avoid wandering too far from home (ps - the letterbox is probably too far) .

Good luck to all from Australia and thanks for the support when the winds have been blowing down this way in the past.

Cheers

Rod

[cpdaman]

sustained 65 mph at SW pass

updated

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

[WxGuy1]

MOB 248 nm reflectivity product makes it look like the center is moving steadily to the WNW, with a relatively hard left turn in the past few hours. If I extrapolat that, it looks like it'll end up W/SW of Houma, and it'll be at least 40-45 mi from New Orleans. If that ends up being the case, then I imagine New Orleans will see primarily Cat 1 winds, and I think the city will avoid another catastrophic flooding event. Of course, this is bound to change, but it seems to be good news for NOLA. The W and SW suburbs would, obviously, be much more likely to see winds that could cause significant structural damage.

Regard KLIX:

NOUS64 KLIX 010644
FTMLIX
Message Date: Sep 01 2008 06:44:41

LIX RADAR CURRENTLY DOWN DUE TO TRANSMITTER PROBLEM. TECHS WORKING TO RESTORE ASAP.

Wave height at 42040 ( 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL) is now up to 33.8 feet, with winds at 43 kts gusting to 54 kts. 33.8-foot waves in only marginal-moderate tropical storm winds (43 kts) isn't too shabby.

[lele25]

I agree! No more driving around for us...and I should know better having grown up here. Still hoping that it is far enough west that we won't have the same problems as we did with Kat.

[Janie2006]

And since I'm a stickler for confirmation, I should follow my own advice and get the information from the source, eh?

From the SPC:

Watch 876 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 876

VALID 010640Z - 010740Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW PNS
TO 15 N PNS TO 15 SE PNS.

..DIAL..09/01/08

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 876

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

ALC003-097-010740-

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN MOBILE
$$


FLC033-010740-

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESCAMBIA
$$

[cpdaman]

gusts over near 90 mph at grand isle (SW pass)

[WxGuy1]

gusts over near 90 mph at grand isle (SW pass)

Link? What's the sustained wind? I assume Cat 1 range (or maybe even strong tropical storm)?

[cpdaman]

gusts over near 90 mph at grand isle (SW pass)

Link? What's the sustained wind? I assume Cat 1 range (or maybe even strong tropical storm)?

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

57knots/65 mph sustained

[KWT]

Yep getting some strong hurricane conditions down there it seems cpdaman.

Radar shows Gustav is indeed heading WNW, looks like its heading right for Houma, going to be a very bad day for them there won't be a pretty picture for them.

[Rod Hagen]

New Orleans radar is out...has been since just after 1am cdt....Mobile radar fine and holding the eye on a 306 degree run as of 0200 cdt.

New Orleans Radar is up again now, with a bit of a gap in the coverage. The change during the "gap" , between 1.04 AM and 02:08 AM CDT, seems to me to have been slightly N of NW (in other words a little more northerly compared to the previous hour, still bringing it ashore west of NOLA, but way, way too close for comfort.)

(Edit - almost stationary for the last twenty minutes)

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep getting some strong hurricane conditions down there it seems cpdaman.

Radar shows Gustav is indeed heading WNW, looks like its heading right for Houma, going to be a very bad day for them there won't be a pretty picture for them.

KWT, what time is in in the UK?.... Didn't expect to see you on this time of night....
I think Gustav is coming in sooner than expected. I just was watching the weather channel and it showed the eye right off the coast....I had thought they said not until about 10:AM local time... Hmmmm..

[Sonica]

I am way more impressed with forecasting this year. IMO Hurricanes follow least resistance like water and models don't always pick that up. Wish me luck, my shop has high vaulted ceilings and my neighborhood has big time flooding issues. Winds are picking up...but then dying out but we are just beginning the journey.

[cpdaman]

81 knot gusts now at sw pass at 212 cdt

60 sustained batten down the hatches they are getting into the right front quad

[Janie2006]

I think it's about 7:30 am in the UK.

[KWT]

ConvergenceZone, 8.30 in the morning, very nice morning, just hope the situation out there doesn't become too severe.

Between the radar break in the N.O radar I think you can see a motion probably around 300, extrap that motion and it goes into Houma...

[NC George]

I think it's about 7:30 am in the UK.

You forgot they have Daylight Savings, too, so they are at UTC+1. In the winter UK time and UTC time are the same (since 0 degrees longitude is in the UK.)

[Cyclenall]

I have been thinking since last evening this is going to come in faster then expected.