ATL: IKE Discussion

[simplykristi]

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

[RL3AO]

AF dropsonde supports 85kt.

[jinftl]

That may be helpful info for people who may not have to leave for surge...if they have a storm ready house and protection on windows...even if you leave for the storm itself...you are more likely than not coming home to no power.

If they are not in a surge zone, they have supplies, and their home is storm ready........yes, you will experience the noise (remember windows will be covered) of a hurricane...it will be scary....the power will be out...but the overal structure of your home can withstand the winds you will see. Trees falling into houses are a risk of course...as is flooding if you are in a prone area from excessive rain....and each person has to assess the needs of their own situation...but in most cases, it will be fine to stay if you are out of the surge zone. The surge is the killer in most storms.

Me neither. It will be a rough ride, but if you are prepared, have the essentials, and pick up things out of your yard, just ride it out.

Yeah, I just told her to buy what she'd need for possibly a few days without power.

As large as this is...More than a few days..

[Aristotle]

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z
SFC WIND SEEN VISUALLY

I could be wrong, but I think this means they're going to raise winds to 105 mph since I think that's confirmation that winds are going to the surface.

I'm wondering if that means intesification. as the winds at the surface earlier were much lighter?

[hiflyer]

For those asking about Humble here is the evac map
http://www.hcoem.org/HCMap.aspx?P=Evacuation

Notice the evac areas stop before Humble....however I would have to add to the other responses that there is low areas that are not in surge evac zones....close onto the Lake is one....the numerous Bayou's another. If anyone is in a low lying area that has flooded or been close to flood before think about the large size of this storm and the possible amount of rainfall it could cause and what that impact may be on your area. The old doctrine of if in doubt get out has served many folks well.

[tolakram]

Last vortex had higher pressure.

[fasterdisaster]

AF dropsonde supports 85kt.

Covering all bases here: Does the pressure support those being the highest winds?

[jinftl]

not with pet friendly shelters in the houston area. it is an excuse. usually after the 'it is not going here...it is going to....' excuse but before the 'we made it through storm so and so fine' or 'they always turn at the last minute' excuse

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

[RL3AO]

AF dropsonde supports 85kt.

Covering all bases here: Does the pressure support those being the highest winds?

Nope. The pressure normally supports a moderate to strong category 3.

[JPmia]

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

If anyone who lives in the impact zone or evac zone is interested, this is a link to a bunch of Google Earth Maps showing wind, surge, rainfall amounts, model tracks, and forecast tracks and much more. I know this was posted before, but it really helped me during Wilma because I was able to locate my neighborhood on the aerial and then click on the wind and surge layers to see how my neighborhood would be impacted by the storm. This information is updated with each NHC update.

Current track would put most of the Houston metro area under minimal Cat 1 to Cat 2 winds and the Galveston area would get the worst with Cat 3 winds and much higher surge.

[fasterdisaster]

AF dropsonde supports 85kt.

Covering all bases here: Does the pressure support those being the highest winds?

Nope. The pressure normally supports a moderate to strong category 3.

What I meant was does the pressure on the dropsonde match the pressure in the VDM?

[NewOrleansMom]

Wife and daughter on I-45 N of the Woodlands. Traffic moving at 20-40mph. They are headed to Dallas and I am staying. Currently resting from putting up storm panels. This is very tiring and somewhat stressful. Lets just have the storm and get on with life. This has been a very long week so far.

Yes, it's very tiring both physically and emotionally. We endured Katrina and just recently Gustav. Once preps have been completed it seems the "waiting" is the most difficult part.

We wish all of you well...be safe. Keeping everyone in our thoughts and prayers.

[RL3AO]

What I meant was does the pressure on the dropsonde match the pressure in the VDM?

Another dropsonde supported 953 to 954.

[artist]

I think Ike has reached his peak. Conditions are favorable for strengthening in the GOM and he's been in the GOM for over 2 days. 100 mph is still pretty strong and the wind field is large so I'd still expect dangerous conditions.

You have no reasoning for this.

up until recently Ike was being shunted between to highs. That had to put the brakes on him, I would think. He now has room to actually do something and he just might do it. He was using all his energy trying to move as well as going through an EWRC.

[tolakram]

Convection suddenly waning. Dry air?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Galveston County EOC and the NWS HGX are in a concrete bunker supposedly designed for a Cat 5. If I were the mayor of Galveston, I'd cross the causeway to the mainland side of the county and ride out the storm there.

[VeniceInlet]

Okay, I am watching KHOU's live coverage and they are reporting that the city of Galveston has moved its emergency operations center to the San Luis hotel. This hotel sits right along the beach according to live shots. I realize there is a seawall and that the hotel is 20 feet high, but to me that seems silly. Thoughts?

I hope they don't start tying themselves to each other with twine.

[Weatherfreak14]

Actually it looks like the convection is starting to build in the eyewall around the eye... And it appears the inner eywall is fading away into the outer eyewall..... Maybe working out the kinks..

[jinftl]

for most people out of the surge zone and in a sturdy house with ideally some window protection, the real experience of ike will begin when the winds die down....and there is no power for possibly weeks.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

If anyone who lives in the impact zone or evac zone is interested, this is a link to a bunch of Google Earth Maps showing wind, surge, rainfall amounts, model tracks, and forecast tracks and much more. I know this was posted before, but it really helped me during Wilma because I was able to locate my neighborhood on the aerial and then click on the wind and surge layers to see how my neighborhood would be impacted by the storm. This information is updated with each NHC update.

Current track would put most of the Houston metro area under minimal Cat 1 to Cat 2 winds and the Galveston area would get the worst with Cat 3 winds and much higher surge.

[CronkPSU]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear