ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

per the NHC..
FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

I would have to say God...thank goodness!

[ConvergenceZone]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

If you were 300 pounds, how fast would you be able to spin?

[HurricaneQueen]

not with pet friendly shelters in the houston area. it is an excuse. usually after the 'it is not going here...it is going to....' excuse but before the 'we made it through storm so and so fine' or 'they always turn at the last minute' excuse

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

Oh, I agree, it's a terrible idea to stay because of pets. Why put both you and yours pets at risk??? More and more places are pet friendly in storm prone areas. We evacuated inland to a hotel with our dog and cat and all of our hurricane supplies for Wilma. Of course, not everyone can afford to pay the hotel bill plus the extra tacked on for pets that are prevalent but where there is a will there is a way. After all you only have one life.

Worse yet are those who leave their pets behind. Does anyone remember a few years ago when a local police officer tied his dog to a pole and left him? One of our members rescued him during the height of the hurricane. These storms certainly teach us there all all kinds out there!

Lynn

Back to IKE!!!!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

According to latest recon there isn't 2 eye-walls still. Theres one eliptical eye-wall

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

According to latest recon there isn't 2 eye-walls still. Theres one eliptical eye-wall

If that is so then this should be ready to to go. So that high to its northwest is forcing decending air into the system. Who knows what this thing is going to do...

[PTPatrick]

Doesnt convection usually wane in the afternoon and evening hours with a hurricane?

[fasterdisaster]

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

According to latest recon there isn't 2 eye-walls still. Theres one eliptical eye-wall

This is true, but the eyewall is open and it needs to close off before strengthening.

[tolakram]

[PTPatrick]

Stephie Abrams just said a 115 mph gust was recorded...was that flight level or surface?

[fasterdisaster]

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

According to latest recon there isn't 2 eye-walls still. Theres one eliptical eye-wall

If that is so then this should be ready to to go. So that high to its northwest is forcing decending air into the system. Who knows what this thing is going to do...

True, but it should be gone tomorrow which is why the NHC forecasts strengthening right before landfall.

[fasterdisaster]

Stephie Abrams just said a 115 mph gust was recorded...was that flight level or surface?

Surface but it was a GUST not sustained.

[jinftl]

Nothing has held him back from growing a surge threat so much greater than his Cat 2 status. He has caused water rises of 5-6 feet or more in areas hundreds of miles from the center without really even trying and in some cases without much wind. Imagine what he will be able to do when he decides to push that water onshore with the aid of 100mph+ winds for hours.

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

If you were 300 pounds, how fast would you be able to spin?

[Aristotle]

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

According to latest recon there isn't 2 eye-walls still. Theres one eliptical eye-wall

If that is so then this should be ready to to go. So that high to its northwest is forcing decending air into the system. Who knows what this thing is going to do...

Sinking Winds seems to be the answer boyz and girlz. For some reason the wind is sinking as it rotates around the storm. For some reason this is keeping the intensity down.

This is forecast to dissipate over the next 24 hours and Ike is expected to intensify. How much is the question.

I've got a bad feeling about this. A steep ramp up right before landfall would be the worst possible scenario me thinks!!!

What i sinking air?

[Sean in New Orleans]

This is a big, big storm with a huge wind field. I just got power back here in New Orleans. It's been out for an hour and a half. We are having winds sustained 35 to 40 mph with gusts to over 50 mph. They really picked up after 3:00 this afternoon. I'm very impressed with the winds. Just heard the forecast on the radio--later tonight and all day tomorrow WWL is forecasting winds 40 to 50 mph in the city with gusts to 65mph. These winds are really surprising with the center so far away. I wasn't expecting these types of winds with Ike. Ike is BIG. I just hope our power stays on...that is what is annoying.

[canetracker]

This is a big, big storm with a huge wind field. I just got power back here in New Orleans. It's been out for an hour and a half. We are having winds sustained 35 to 40 mph with gusts to over 50 mph. They really picked up after 3:00 this afternoon. I'm very impressed with the winds. Just heard the forecast on the radio--later tonight and all day tomorrow WWL is forecasting winds 40 to 50 mph in the city with gusts to 65mph. These winds are really surprising with the center so far away. I wasn't expecting these types of winds with Ike. Ike is BIG. I just hope our power stays on...that is what is annoying.

Sean, glad you posted it, I did not hear it. Am going to tune in and listen.

Thanks!!!

[HurricaneQueen]

One topic I haven't heard discussed in the last week. Do we expect dmax tonight or is that limited to Atlantic storms?

[PTPatrick]

Is this getting close to Carla size...

[lisa0825]

Okay, I am watching KHOU's live coverage and they are reporting that the city of Galveston has moved its emergency operations center to the San Luis hotel. This hotel sits right along the beach according to live shots. I realize there is a seawall and that the hotel is 20 feet high, but to me that seems silly. Thoughts?

Sounds stupid to me. I guess I'm confused with how their seawall works anyways because my understanding is that is just a wall (not to be confused with a levee) that protects half the island and its not enclosed (or so I thought) which would allow the water to pour in at the end of it wouldn't it?

Local met Greg Bostwick said everybody south of I-10 in Jefferson & Orange counties should not choose to "ride this one out" as he put it.

The San Luis is on very high ground and is a very study structure. It has been used for this purpose many times. Of course that does not guarantee success this time, but I just wanted to make that clear. This wasn't a decision on a whim. This is the typical MO.

[PTPatrick]

TWC just reported GUST of 139mph

[Aristotle]

Recon just reported a peak wind of 139mph. Pressure dropping


uhoh!