ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

TWC just reported GUST of 139mph

Why anyone thinks this is a Category 1 I have no idea.

[dhweather]

This will probably help a lot of people understand what is hindering Ike


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103160&p=1825697#p1825697

[ConvergenceZone]

based upon that last graphic posted though, Ike may be making landfall earlier than anticipated before.....Aren't we at the 24 hour mark or so before landfall? Time's running out by the hour for strengthening, but of course that's a good thing...

[simplykristi]

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

Wow! That's an awful lot of negatives in one sentence. You meant to say that there's no reason for people not to evacuate with their pets, right?

Whatever.... The bottom line is people have no excuse not to evacuate.

Kristi

[fasterdisaster]

based upon that last graphic posted though, Ike may be making landfall earlier than anticipated before.....Aren't we at the 24 hour mark or so before landfall? Time's running out by the hour for strengthening, but of course that's a good thing...

No, that's 36 hours.

[PTPatrick]

18z GFDL now calling for a cat 2...but HWRF still says cat 3 at landfall. GFDL is saying 960's pressure at landfall. HWRF showing 930's

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

TWC just reported GUST of 139mph

Why anyone thinks this is a Category 1 I have no idea.

based on what I have seen theres been no report of 139mph gusts.

[Annie Oakley]

Any Mods present? Have questions etc....
Thanks for al mets and experienced persons posting here. There are people putting in major hours to help with this situation and they are much appreciated-thanks Sean for the LA input! Thanks Tolakram for the wonderful graphics.

[rtd2]

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

According to latest recon there isn't 2 eye-walls still. Theres one eliptical eye-wall

eliptical eye sounds like its continuing to get weaker.




awesome shot of IKE

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/in ... tion=1000m

[fasterdisaster]

TWC just reported GUST of 139mph

Why anyone thinks this is a Category 1 I have no idea.

based on what I have seen theres been no report of 139mph gusts.

No, there definitely was, it was from a dropsonde.

[PTPatrick]

Dont know where Stephanie got that info, but its what I heard.


Also...looks like dry air is staying away from the eyewall area...actualyl dry air seems to me moving away from the center now.

[cycloneye]

It was Stephanie Abrams who said about the gust of 139 mph.

[Sean in New Orleans]

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

Wow! That's an awful lot of negatives in one sentence. You meant to say that there's no reason for people not to evacuate with their pets, right?

Whatever.... The bottom line is people have no excuse not to evacuate.

Kristi

No one should evacuate without their pets. In Louisiana we have our own pet evacuation centers after the Katrina deal with pets and people not leaving. Texas has worked very closely with Louisiana in the past three years with hurricane disaster plans. Don't leave your pets home. It's not necessary and can be cruel if you are unable to return home for an extended period.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Ike certainly has grown these past 48hrs. Man he is huge. His outflow is nearly taking up the entire GOM. If anyone along the threatened coast is thinking of staying put. I say: PLEASE DON'T DO IT! Even if Ike stays steady as a 100 mph sustained cat. 2 storm, with those wind swath of 115 miles (for hurricane force winds) and 275 miles (for gale, i.e. 39 mph or greater, winds) and a flat coast line the storm surge flooding is going to be catastrophically devastating.

[artist]

This will probably help a lot of people understand what is hindering Ike


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103160&p=1825697#p1825697

I have soooo missed your images dh! It is soooo good to have you back!
Hope you stay.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow people on here really need to consider the whole picture on what is going on now and in the future for this storm. Also, if you havent already seen derek's forecast, you should, because I strongly agree with it. Assuming the core does get its act together, significant strengthening is once again possible, which everyone knows. Somehow I dont think the point got across that this core organization is supposed to complete almost 24 hours from now! Patience people. I dont know if it will indeed get its act together or not, but this is not the time to judge it. I hate to say it, but we will likely not know until the last few hours before landfall.

[dhweather]

We can do without the sarcasm. Even if Ike comes in as a category 1 hurricane, he will bring a surge typical of a major hurricane.

The elliptical eye could also be due to the collapse of the inner eye and Ike is reforming.

[tolakram]

It was Stephanie Abrams who said about the gust of 139 mph.

She's a dropsonde?

I don't see any evidence from the recon data, which doesn't mean it's not there, I just don't see it.

[Stephanie]

TWC just reported GUST of 139mph

Why anyone thinks this is a Category 1 I have no idea.

Who's thinking that? It's categorized as a 2 now.

[PTPatrick]

I see why GFDL came in so weak. It initialized Ike at 976 MB cat one of 83 knots. I guess we should throw its intensity forecast out the window