ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..

And you moved to Oklahoma? I thought you were in FL.....we miss you on the other board with your knowledge....


Paul

Yeah, I know. I have been all over the place recently. Luckily though, my moving spree seems to finally be over with. lol.

As for the other board, I do still pop in from time to time, but it is true that I have not posted there recently. If Gustav becomes a Texas issue though, then there is a pretty good chance that I may make a visit, so be on the lookout for "EWG" in the days to come.. :wink:

Looking forward to it and best wishes in OK, now back to Gustav.

[3ABirdMan]

Someone else asked but I did not see a response. How often is this page updated?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif

On another note, all this talk and speculation is making my blood pressure go through the roof. I wish I had the will power to completely ignore this storm for 2 days! Then I could come back with a much better idea of what to expect and still enough time to prepare if need be. LOL!

Very true. But you would have about 167 pages of discussion to read to catch up on all of the bickering and synopsies! lol

And don't EVEN think about the DISCUSSION thread! That one will be over 600 pages by then lol.........

While I jest about the number of posts, let me take a moment to THANK all of you guys and gals who know what's really going on out there. In the past year or so, I have learned a tremendous amount about tropical weather and systems that just wasn't in my little "Golden Guide to Meteorology" text book for MET101 way back there in the '70s.

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

South into Yucatan for NAM for what it is worth.

[mahmoo]

While I jest about the number of posts, let me take a moment to THANK all of you guys and gals who know what's really going on out there. In the past year or so, I have learned a tremendous amount about tropical weather and systems that just wasn't in my little "Golden Guide to Meteorology" text book for MET101 way back there in the '70s.

You're lucky.........I've been trying to learn for years and I guess it's too technical for me.......wish they'd start a "Hurricane Tracking For Dummies" thread.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS rolling....36h

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_850_084l.gif

South into Yucatan for NAM for what it is worth.

Is that further south then the last run?

[3ABirdMan]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008082618&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Storm? What storm?

OK - Let me take a shot at this from the GFS loop linked in the quote ........

Looking at the loop, I see:
- on frame 15 (T+90), it shows the remnants of Fay exiting the CONUS, with a High in the ATL, and another High building in the Central US.
- on frame 18 (T+108), Fay is gone, and the Highs / ridges join
- BUT, on frame 22 (T+132) the ridges break down, leaving a weakness in between

Following out the loop, it looks like Gus takes a jog toward Panama City, toward the weakness, and then stalls, which I assume is a direct result of the ridge to its' North, not knowing which way it wants to go.

My question is: Is that anywhere CLOSE to what the NHC is looking at when they keep there "line" east of the models? Or do I really not have a clue? (I do realize the model was at low level)

Just trying to learn here - Not a met (lol - that's really funny - ME , a met Heck - My avatar is a SOFTBALL lol but I have a disclamer just the same). THANKS for the PATIENT answers from those in the know, for the dummy trying to learn.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs60

[HouTXmetro]

So the GFS showing NE Gulf scenario? This was my original forecast.... I'm still leaning towards NOLA to Mobile for landfall.

NOT OFFICIAL

[ExBailbonds]

Here is a link to the gfs loop. Just refresh every couple of minutes the new frames will add when you refresh it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Nederlander]

not saying its impossible at all, but GFS has been on crack with Gustav...

[vbhoutex]

18z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Oh geez Luis! That loop is making me ill just thinking of it if it's true!

GULP!!!!!:eek:

We all know that it is way to early to speculate on the verification of this, but if it does

[Wx_Warrior]

yea i cant post anymore of that...gfs may be out to lunch with gustav thus far...maybe it will straighten up this weekend.

[HouTXmetro]

18z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Oh geez Luis! That loop is making me ill just thinking of it if it's true!

GULP!!!!!:eek:

We all know that it is way to early to speculate on the verification of this, but if it does

If there is a trough over TX I wouldn't be to concerned. I'm more concerned for LA east right now.

[ExBailbonds]

yea i cant post anymore of that...gfs may be out to lunch with gustav thus far...maybe it will straighten up this weekend.

I like the loop. Post it once and forget it saves time and bandwidth. Just remind people to refresh it.

[rockyman]

the NHC seems to be discounting that GFDL run

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0306.shtml

[MWatkins]

The 0Z GFS has the upper system centered up at 40/62 (the big one at 500MB ) getting south enough...erroding the backside of the 588 high over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

This pops down the mid/upper high enough to release Gustav into the eastern Bahamas....then the ridge builds back to the east...trapping Gustav on a WNW track through the keys and into the SE Gulf.

I think...think this is a result of the GFS finally getting a handle on the initial intensity of Gustav (way too shallow before). I would initially write it off as a "bad run"...but if the other models start calling for an erosion of the EASTERN part of the high almost right away...then we could see some of the largest forecast errors in the last decade.

MW

[HouTXmetro]

The 0Z GFS has the upper system centered up at 40/62 (the big one at 500MB ) getting south enough...erroding the backside of the 588 high over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

This pops down the mid/upper high enough to release Gustav into the eastern Bahamas....then the ridge builds back to the east...trapping Gustav on a WNW track through the keys and into the SE Gulf.

I think...think this is a result of the GFS finally getting a handle on the initial intensity of Gustav (way too shallow before). I would initially write it off as a "bad run"...but if the other models start calling for an erosion of the EASTERN part of the high almost right away...then we could see some of the largest forecast errors in the last decade.

MW

What was that storm in 2006 that we all thought was headed to West Gulf then ended up in S/E FL? I mean alot of promets on this board had crow for weeks.

[MWatkins]

The 0Z GFS has the upper system centered up at 40/62 (the big one at 500MB ) getting south enough...erroding the backside of the 588 high over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

This pops down the mid/upper high enough to release Gustav into the eastern Bahamas....then the ridge builds back to the east...trapping Gustav on a WNW track through the keys and into the SE Gulf.

I think...think this is a result of the GFS finally getting a handle on the initial intensity of Gustav (way too shallow before). I would initially write it off as a "bad run"...but if the other models start calling for an erosion of the EASTERN part of the high almost right away...then we could see some of the largest forecast errors in the last decade.

MW

What was that storm in 2006 that we all thought was headed to West Gulf then ended up in S/E FL? I mean alot of promets on this board had crow for weeks.

That would have been Ernesto...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL052006_Ernesto.pdf

Yes that was an intense few days...but I think they were forecasting more of a central/eastern threat.

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

Goodness....choo choo...And next Fri there is Gusy...Fay part deux