ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

Well the thing is the models forecasting of shear isn't exactly great, is it Gustav's outflow that is cuasing the shear by the way post 96hrs?

No. It's simply strong northerly flow between a strong UL ridge over the eastern CONUS and a deep layer cutoff low to the east. All of the global models show this taking place, and have been for a couple days now. The guidance would have to be completely out to lunch about the longer wave pattern over NOAM for this not to verify close to reality.

[KWT]

Ok so then the question has to be what happens when this gets past that and into the gulf, which is looking very possible if the high is similar in strength to what it has been for Gustav, doe shte shear drop right away again in the gulf allowing Hanna to possibly strengthen up again?

[AJC3]

Ok so then the question has to be what happens when this gets past that and into the gulf, which is looking very possible if the high is similar in strength to what it has been for Gustav, doe shte shear drop right away again in the gulf allowing Hanna to possibly strengthen up again?

Possibly. Of course, this begs the question, "Will there be much left of Hanna if the guidance is right out at 4 days?" I have my suspicions that the cyclone will take more of a beating that the official forecast indicates. YOMV.

[cpdaman]

AJC3, do you think this could "die out" over the ULL in the next 24 hours

[KWT]

Well I did say that to deltadog on the model thread, it does just depend on whether there is much there to strengthen, we shall see...

[AJC3]

AJC3, do you think this could "die out" over the ULL in the next 24 hours

Well, I suppose it's in the realm of possible outcomes. But no, I don't think it will.

[cpdaman]

hannah is currently passing about 50-60 miles north of this bouy

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

pressure bottomed at 29.67

[fci]

Aargh!!

I have been away a while and read page after page of my fellow South Floridians talking about how everyone is wrong.

The Local Mets
The Pro Mets
The Model Consensus
The NHC

The way I see the models, objectively; and read the NHC discussions; Hanna is CURRENTLY progged to:

- Maybe get weakened terribly by the ULL AND stiff Northerly shear and Gustav's ouflow and possibly never get strong

- Will be pushed SW and miss Florida completely to the South and Southeast with Hanna going into the NW Carribean.

YES, there are a couple of models and JB who disagree.
But the NHC is not in the habit of forecasting against what they see.

So, take a deep breath folks and until there is a consensus model change or Pro Mets jumping on board with an alternative scenario; PLEASE stop sounding the doomsday bells that we are going to get a major hurricane here in a week or so.

RIGHT NOW, it does not look that way!!!!!!!


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[deltadog03]

The shear might give it one heck of a beat down, but** If the euro is right, she may sneak closer to that coast before it would destroy/hurt her and may actually help her....

[cpdaman]

look at the little t-strom that could firing near her center

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

now within about 2 degrees longitude of the weakening ULL

appears she may go just south of the ull, so shear will change from SW to west to NW and then possibly later saturday (should the ull decide not follow her?) it could vent what is left , should she not be engulfed by dry air

[Bocadude85]

Aargh!!

I have been away a while and read page after page of my fellow South Floridians talking about how everyone is wrong.

The Local Mets
The Pro Mets
The Model Consensus
The NHC

The way I see the models, objectively; and read the NHC discussions; Hanna is CURRENTLY progged to:

- Maybe get weakened terribly by the ULL AND stiff Northerly shear and Gustav's ouflow and possibly never get strong

- Will be pushed SW and miss Florida completely to the South and Southeast with Hanna going into the NW Carribean.

YES, there are a couple of models and JB who disagree.
But the NHC is not in the habit of forecasting against what they see.

So, take a deep breath folks and until there is a consensus model change or Pro Mets jumping on board with an alternative scenario; PLEASE stop sounding the doomsday bells that we are going to get a major hurricane here in a week or so.

RIGHT NOW, it does not look that way!!!!!!!


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

actually the new gfs moves her west through the keys...

[KWT]

Delta, the thing that will be interesting is to see just how far east that upper high extends, its certainly strange how the models are all strengthening Hanna depsite the shear being present, I wonder why they are doing that?

[AJC3]

The shear might give it one heck of a beat down, but** If the euro is right, she may sneak closer to that coast before it would destroy/hurt her and may actually help her....

The big problem I had with the Euro, and this was based on the high-res 00Z run last night (so I'm saying this without the advantage of having the same 12Z dataset in front of me) is that it actually intensified Hanna while it was gettting bombarded with those strong winds aloft.

[deltadog03]

I am not sure to be honest....GFS (12z Run looks like this)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Sheared fairly high at that point.

Tuesday morning:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

Still getting pounded by shear

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082912!!/

Euro might be a smidge quicker...

Thurs morning...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082912!!/

GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

I think GFS is too far south. And given whats been going on so far with GUS...I would have to say my nod goes with EURO so far...More than likely it will be somewhere in btwn...Maybe MIAMI

[cpdaman]

with the LLC's movement right now (thru ull, and probably just south) when may hanna see good conditions again (sunday?)

[blp]

Aargh!!

I have been away a while and read page after page of my fellow South Floridians talking about how everyone is wrong.

The Local Mets
The Pro Mets
The Model Consensus
The NHC

The way I see the models, objectively; and read the NHC discussions; Hanna is CURRENTLY progged to:

- Maybe get weakened terribly by the ULL AND stiff Northerly shear and Gustav's ouflow and possibly never get strong

- Will be pushed SW and miss Florida completely to the South and Southeast with Hanna going into the NW Carribean.

YES, there are a couple of models and JB who disagree.
But the NHC is not in the habit of forecasting against what they see.

So, take a deep breath folks and until there is a consensus model change or Pro Mets jumping on board with an alternative scenario; PLEASE stop sounding the doomsday bells that we are going to get a major hurricane here in a week or so.

RIGHT NOW, it does not look that way!!!!!!!


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well I would not say that there is model consensus after 72hrs. So far the 12ZEURO, 12ZCMC and 12Z NOGAPS are showing a possible landfall closer to Florida. The 18ZGFS Florida Straits and the 12Z GFDL diving South. If any consensus exists it would be on an eventual turn back to the West in the longer term, but where the turn will take place is the question. I think people are just responding to the model outputs.

Right now the NHC cone is in no way making me feel better yet because I know the west turn will happen. I do agree we need to sit back and watch the show.... and wait a little longer to see what happens....

[storms in NC]

I posted this earlier but I don't think it went through. I don't post much, more of an observer but there are some people on here that think ever strom that develops in the atlantic is going to go through Florida. Now, granted, you guys have had a few years of bad luck (Wilmington,NC here so I know from the mid to late 90s) but just because a storm is in the Atlantic some 400 miles from shore in 5 days by the models that does not mean it will end up in your backyard. Most of the storms this time of year get caught up in troughs and such and go NW, NNW, N, and so on. So just sit back and see what happens as you all know crap will change alot in the next few days.

Couldn't have siad it any better. Nice post

[storms in NC]

To me the model plot have it good for 3 days then it goes stir crazy or something on crack. I think in a few day the model should have a handle on this. I would hope.

[deltadog03]

The shear might give it one heck of a beat down, but** If the euro is right, she may sneak closer to that coast before it would destroy/hurt her and may actually help her....

The big problem I had with the Euro, and this was based on the high-res 00Z run last night (so I'm saying this without the advantage of having the same 12Z dataset in front of me) is that it actually intensified Hanna while it was gettting bombarded with those strong winds aloft.

Good points...I am not sure this gets as strong as the 12z euro has it....Gfs looks like a weak cat 1 maybe?? I don't think this really gets going until it gets in the eastern gom...(obviously could be different if it gets into the keys)

[ericinmia]

I posted this earlier but I don't think it went through. I don't post much, more of an observer but there are some people on here that think ever strom that develops in the atlantic is going to go through Florida. Now, granted, you guys have had a few years of bad luck (Wilmington,NC here so I know from the mid to late 90s) but just because a storm is in the Atlantic some 400 miles from shore in 5 days by the models that does not mean it will end up in your backyard. Most of the storms this time of year get caught up in troughs and such and go NW, NNW, N, and so on. So just sit back and see what happens as you all know crap will change alot in the next few days.

Couldn't have siad it any better. Nice post

Just to play the "devil's advocate" here and jump in...
There are absolutely no forecasts that point to anything you have said in your post, or at least none I have seen. I can understand that you would feel the need to monitor it as you should considering all the scares we have had which became your problems, a la Floyd. But in this case the synoptics clearly point to this being a problem farther south Cuba to central Florida. The storm would have to stall for more than half a week just off the florida coast for this to even be quasi-possibly a NC problem. But even then the projected weather paterns would pull Hannah straight out to sea... possibly a problem for Bermuda at most.

I know people get excited about weather coming their way, and this causes divergent opinions about where the storms will go... but in this case if you could please proove any of your points that would be helpful to me and others that have heard not a thing about what you write.

Thanks,
-Eric