ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Bout ready to make that infamous call about a GOM situation...


"Take it to the bank"

Weather- I made that call 3 days ago and a 12 pk of shiner on the line.... little late....

Lol...well you never made a bet with me as I recall I have always supported the solution but even if I lost we'd only meet even after Gustav.


I'll tell you one thing though...if this thing misses the weakness guidance is split on a trough bringing this thing to the N/NE GOM...or the more likely scenario...the high holds and this thing is going West...definitely something to watch out for.

[AtlanticWind]

12z GFDL ends SW of NAPLES:

WHXX04 KWBC 051729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.3 62.0 260./14.9
6 23.1 63.3 263./12.3
12 22.8 64.5 252./11.4
18 22.5 65.7 258./11.2
24 22.2 67.1 257./13.8
30 21.7 68.5 252./13.7
36 21.4 69.7 256./11.7
42 21.2 70.8 259./10.4
48 21.2 72.2 270./13.2
54 20.9 73.4 257./11.5
60 20.7 74.5 259./10.1
66 20.8 75.5 276./ 9.0
72 20.9 76.8 274./12.3
78 21.0 77.8 273./ 9.4
84 21.2 78.6 289./ 8.3
90 21.6 79.4 290./ 8.4
96 22.2 80.2 308./ 9.3
102 22.7 81.0 305./ 8.7
108 23.4 81.3 334./ 7.8
114 24.0 82.0 313./ 8.7
120 24.5 82.4 322./ 6.3
126 25.4 82.8 335./ 9.4

I just dont see it dipping that far south , we shall see

[gtsmith]

UKMET does not see any weakness at all? That is not what i expected...I dont want the storm but was not expecting it to track all the way to TX/LA border for goodness sake

[chris_fit]

Comments on the new GFDL....

Look at the N component at the end of the track... It's between NW and NNW if I'm doing this correctly... Pretty much on it's way to a re curve if that weakness persists.

[micktooth]

Hasn't the UKMET been one of the worst models this season? It always seems to be way out there.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Comments on the new GFDL....

Look at the N component at the end of the track... It's between NW and NNW if I'm doing this correctly... Pretty much on it's way to a re curve if that weakness persists.

Yep the thing to note though is it gets killed over Cuba..

[Bocadude85]

so what was the outcome with the HWRF?

[Mathias]

Hasn't the UKMET been one of the worst models this season? It always seems to be way out there.

Yes, from my recollection, the UKMET had a severe westerly bias during Gustav, at one point bringing it into or near Corpus Christi, TX.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps through the Keys as well

[KWT]

GFDL once again very keen on a track over Cuba I see, certainly is pretty consistant with its previous runs...I'll be surprised if it dips that far far WSW but its possible...just goes to show though that everywhere in the cone, be it Cuba, Florida or the keys needs to keep close eye on this hurricane.

[gatorcane]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

[cycloneye]

IH,link or graphic to Nogaps.

[DESTRUCTION5]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

Why? GFDL, GFS ,HWRF, and Nogaps have Him exactly where the NHC does?

[Bocadude85]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

Agree the threat is decreasing for the mainland

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF Splits FL in half...

[Ivanhater]

IH,link or graphic to Nogaps.

Nogaps going through the Keys..last run had recurving east of Florida

[Bocadude85]

when will the models have recon data in them?

[tekno]

IF..................
this threatens NOLA....WILL THEY EVAC A 2nd TIME??
certainly could be a nasty setup for complacent folks if this develops that direction

[3ABirdMan]

Your looking at 500mb..it moves in the gulf at 114...this run comes up the west coast of Florida in the gulf

Okay I see what you mean but looks like there is a big weakness over Florida so its hinting at a NNW then N or NE hook

Part of the biggest errors I saw tracking Gustav with the GFS was that it sensed a break in the ridge over NFL (before the ridge built in, with a H over Ga and one over SFL), drawing Gus into the FL panhandle area as soon as it got done with Jamaica and started moving again. I recall seeing on here in more than one post that the GFS tends to overbuild highs and give too much influence to the weaknesses. Based on that, I would NOT trust the N or NE track and associated recurve.

[ronjon]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....

as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

Gator, it'll shift left some but I don't see anything like the UKMET. The 12Z GFS and GFDL are hugging the SW coast of FL - NHC track may get nudged south more toward Cuba but Ikes still gonna turn NW in the straits judging by these models.