ATL: IKE Discussion

[Steve]

Looking like points east of landfall are also going to get socked with torrential rain. That hasn't been discussed that much since Sanibel posted about the 3.x" received through yesterday. Lots of moisture to work with here it would appear to go along with the already strong winds down my way. Gonna go out and play for a while.

Steve

[bayoubebe]

This is a big, big storm with a huge wind field. I just got power back here in New Orleans. It's been out for an hour and a half. We are having winds sustained 35 to 40 mph with gusts to over 50 mph. They really picked up after 3:00 this afternoon. I'm very impressed with the winds. Just heard the forecast on the radio--later tonight and all day tomorrow WWL is forecasting winds 40 to 50 mph in the city with gusts to 65mph. These winds are really surprising with the center so far away. I wasn't expecting these types of winds with Ike. Ike is BIG. I just hope our power stays on...that is what is annoying.

This may explain why they closed some of the schools around here. I was puzzled when I got the calls.
I didn't know it would pick up like that tomorrow.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.

This speak volumes. PLEASE EVERYONE LISTEN, AND LEAVE WHILE YOU STILL CAN!

[Rod Hagen]

>>Very deep convection now starting to wrap around the eye and on outflow, it looks like it may start to intensify:

Noticing that myself. Looking like the tops are cooling tonight. Sustainable? Who knows. WNWish - 295ish????? Would like to know the heading, but I'm not a good plotter.

Well, having watched it actually plot a little to the north of the forecast line (which itself has continually been adjusted northwards) for most of the last couple of days, right at the moment it seems to me to be taking a bit of a turn to the south of the forecast track (and has been for the last couple of hours in fact - based on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html ).

Cheers

Rod

[dhweather]

This will probably help a lot of people understand what is hindering Ike


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103160&p=1825697#p1825697

bump incase someone missed it.

[artist]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

on the Strand in Galveston just across from the sea wall -
http://webcams.galveston.com/docs/thesp ... spotmp.jpg

[Weatherfreak14]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

on the Strand in Galveston just across from the sea wall -
http://webcams.galveston.com/docs/thesp ... spotmp.jpg

WHY, is there people there, drinkinjg and havin fun when they should save their own lives, thats a very sad image to see.

[lisa0825]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

on the Strand in Galveston just across from the sea wall -
http://webcams.galveston.com/docs/thesp ... spotmp.jpg

The Spot is not on the Strand. The strand is toward the mainland side of the island. The Seawall is right on the Gulf. The Spot is a popular patio bar/grill overlooking the Gulf.

edited to add: keep in mind that some of them may be people who have mandatory orders to STAY on the island, and are out and about while they still can be, before the weather begins to arrive.

[shah8]

Hurricane parties are hurricane parties. Most people, Camille's victims aside, survive them, albeit with a few more gray hairs if the hurricane is particularly bad.

I don't think people get just how long hurricane force winds will be blowing, depending on the northerly component.

[cape_escape]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

I'm with you! I'm very concerned! I just got home and turned on the TV, and I heard Jim Cantore (sp?) sayng that this is expected to be wose than Rita!

Please take this seriouse! What Ike is capable of is just frightning!

My thoughts and prayers are wiht everyone in his path!

[Txdivermom]

Me neither. It will be a rough ride, but if you are prepared, have the essentials, and pick up things out of your yard, just ride it out.

I've not seen any houses boarded between I45 near Little York and Cypress. Of course, many will get trees, but nobody boarded.

[Steve]

>>Most people, Camille's victims aside

Not to get off topic but I'm pretty sure they debunked that.

Steve

[Wx_Warrior]

Another great update from KFDM Chief Met Greg Bostwick in Beaumont.

Nutshell, storm surge...storm surge...storm surge!!!

He was asked what major impacts would happen if Ike made landfall closer to the Golden Triangle and he said not much...Wind still the same as hurricane force winds extend to Lake Charles now.

Could not stress enough about people still in low-lying areas....GET OUT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Entire country feeling Ike already. One day wholesale gasoline prices jump over a dollar on refinery closures.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hurricane parties are hurricane parties. Most people, Camille's victims aside, survive them, albeit with a few more gray hairs if the hurricane is particularly bad.

I don't think people get just how long hurricane force winds will be blowing, depending on the northerly component.

At this point in time its not really the winds people need to be worried about. Its the up to 25 foot storm surge with 20 to 30 foot waves on top of that that people need to worry about! Like that statement said any one in a single family 1 or 2 floor home not following the evacuation orders face certain death. That is a fact not a scare tactic!

[Sean in New Orleans]

I looked back through the last few pages to see if this had been posted, and couldn't find it...sorry if its a duplicate.

Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:32 AM EDT on September 11

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so may get overtopped.

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

bump

I think that is a little dramatic. Ike has never even been a Cat. 4, much less a Cat. 5. Katrina killed over 1,800 people. If Jeff Masters is expecting a storm surge of over 35 feet, which occurred with Katrina, then Texas is in deep Texas trouble. I've read Jeff Masters posts for the last three days, and his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds. This is no Katrina. Look at the satellite and it's quite evident

[Brent]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

I'm really concerned too.

[dwg71]

it appears that this will be a storm surge problem. I think if it stays a 2, and can get in east of the bay Houston will be able to recover quickly. I actually think a direct hit on Galveston is better than on about 20 miles west.

Im in Pasadena, riding it out with my family. We are in well constructed home. Please keep us in your thoughts. I know I can be testy at times, but I have learned so much from all of you and value the time spent here. Its all in good fun.

Im scared, and Im a 36 year old man.


Darryl

[93superstorm]

Its Intensifying, deepest convection yet on the NE side:

[jasons2k]

:eek:

I am totally exhausted. Really. I have been spending all day doing storm preps and boarding-up my windows. BTW those EZ clips are great if you have a brick house. We are stocked beyond belief with food, water, ice, batteries, etc. In short, we are ready.

I've popped in & out a few times today but I've had very little time for any analysis. I've been inclined to think this storm would come-in along or just east of Galveston based on today's trends. I've also been montoring if the center of this thing would ever "gel".

This image immediately caught my eye. I see three things here: the inner eye looks like it is finally trying to build some solid convection and wrap. Might be a sign of the winds finally catching-up later tonight 2) A slight west jog 3) improved outflow on the NW side and a much more symmetrical appearance overall.

I expect Ike to intensify some now but I think it's just too massive a storm to undergo RI. But I'm definltely more concerned looking at this loop than I have been all day.

One other thing - from the few bits I have seen on TV - people in this area are not taking this nearly as seriously as they should be. In fact, Channel 13 just showed some people in Kemah planning to ride this out in their boat. Suicidal to say the least. God help this area if Ike comes in over/west of Galveston.