ATL: IKE Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Me neither. It will be a rough ride, but if you are prepared, have the essentials, and pick up things out of your yard, just ride it out.

I've not seen any houses boarded between I45 near Little York and Cypress. Of course, many will get trees, but nobody boarded.

I boarded up and I still believe pro-met Delta Dogs forecast of a landfall on the Lousiana side of the Sabine is possible. Better safe than sorry.




Delta Dog is East of most of the other pro-mets, but their trend is towards his forecast, not vice versa. But if NHC says my house, I'm taking reasonable precautions. Bottled water, food, flashlights, batteries, extra baby bottles to pre-sterilize because we won't be able to after the lights and water go out, if they do. And the big windows are boarded.


If I lived on Galveston Island or any other mandatory evac zone, I'd be one gone pecan.

[jenmrk]

Hybridstorm_November2001 Post subject: Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - DiscussionPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:11 pm


Category 5



Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 3:50 pm
Posts: 1678
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.

This speak volumes. PLEASE EVERYONE LISTEN, AND LEAVE WHILE YOU STILL CAN!


The fact that you posted this at 9:11 pm on 9-11 is kind of creepy.

I just wanted to say that my prayers are with all of you on the Texas Gulf coast and if you are in one of the warning areas PLEASE leave! Its not worth your or your loved ones lives.




Top

[artist]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

on the Strand in Galveston just across from the sea wall -
http://webcams.galveston.com/docs/thesp ... spotmp.jpg

The Spot is not on the Strand. The strand is toward the mainland side of the island. The Seawall is right on the Gulf. The Spot is a popular patio bar/grill overlooking the Gulf.

edited to add: keep in mind that some of them may be people who have mandatory orders to STAY on the island, and are out and about while they still can be, before the weather begins to arrive.

sorry, I thought it was at the Strand, but it is along the sea wall. And the people there, earlier was a bike club. When it was lighter you could see their bikes and their patches on the back of their leather jackets. There were also lots of surfers.

[HouTXmetro]

Deep Convection developing around what appears to be the center and an developing eye.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[Sean in New Orleans]

Looks like Ike is moving W at the moment.

[tolakram]

I think that is a little dramatic. Ike has never even been a Cat. 4, much less a Cat. 5. Katrina killed over 1,800 people. If Jeff Masters is expecting a storm surge of over 35 feet, which occurred with Katrina, then Texas is in deep Texas trouble. I've read Jeff Masters posts for the last three days, and his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds. This is no Katrina. Look at the satellite and it's quite evident

What's your opinion on his comparisons of Kinetic energy and surge levels? Are you saying that theory is bunk?

[cape_escape]

it appears that this will be a storm surge problem. I think if it stays a 2, and can get in east of the bay Houston will be able to recover quickly. I actually think a direct hit on Galveston is better than on about 20 miles west.

Im in Pasadena, riding it out with my family. We are in well constructed home. Please keep us in your thoughts. I know I can be testy at times, but I have learned so much from all of you and value the time spent here. Its all in good fun.

Im scared, and Im a 36 year old man.


Darryl

Darryl, you and your family are definetly in my thoughts and prayers throughout this! Just think positive, is ther nowhere else you can go?

[yzerfan]

The Spot is not on the Strand. The strand is toward the mainland side of the island. The Seawall is right on the Gulf. The Spot is a popular patio bar/grill overlooking the Gulf.

edited to add: keep in mind that some of them may be people who have mandatory orders to STAY on the island, and are out and about while they still can be, before the weather begins to arrive.

One of my neighbors calls that kind of hanging out toward landfall the Last Supper Effect- smetimes you get to a point where the car is packed and the windows are boarded up but you aren't ready to leave just quite yet. So the last night before you drive out, you hit up your favorite place in town because 48 hours from now things could be changed forever and it could be wiped off the map. I'd bet that at least 80% (and probably more) of the people eating out in Galveston tonight are off the island by noon tomorrow.

[superfly]

Ike is definitely strengthening.

Yeah, look no further than his rising pressure and dry slots in his CDO.

[bob rulz]

One other thing - from the few bits I have seen on TV - people in this area are not taking this nearly as seriously as they should be. In fact, Channel 13 just showed some people in Kemah planning to ride this out in their boat. Suicidal to say the least. God help this area if Ike comes in over/west of Galveston.

OMG, people are freaking idiots. No one deserves death because of stupidity but this is just begging for it!

[Agua]

>>Most people, Camille's victims aside

Not to get off topic but I'm pretty sure they debunked that.

Steve

They did.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think that is a little dramatic. Ike has never even been a Cat. 4, much less a Cat. 5. Katrina killed over 1,800 people. If Jeff Masters is expecting a storm surge of over 35 feet, which occurred with Katrina, then Texas is in deep Texas trouble. I've read Jeff Masters posts for the last three days, and his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds. This is no Katrina. Look at the satellite and it's quite evident

What's your opinion on his comparisons of Kinetic energy and surge levels? Are you saying that theory is bunk?

I think the storm surge is going to be huge with this system. I went to Lake Pontchartrain and viewed the effects over 250 miles away. Do I expect a storm surge of over 35 feet with Ike? No. I hope that doesn't occur.

[amawea]

Ike is definitely strengthening.

Yeah, look no further than his rising pressure and dry slots in his CDO.

Superfly, If you can't see that Ike is getting better organized then why are you here because you must be blind.

[lost cause]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

on the Strand in Galveston just across from the sea wall -
http://webcams.galveston.com/docs/thesp ... spotmp.jpg

The Spot is not on the Strand. The strand is toward the mainland side of the island. The Seawall is right on the Gulf. The Spot is a popular patio bar/grill overlooking the Gulf.

edited to add: keep in mind that some of them may be people who have mandatory orders to STAY on the island, and are out and about while they still can be, before the weather begins to arrive.

The Spot is a combo biker bar/surfer bar. I'm not surprised there's a bunch of folks there as I am sure the surfers were all over the beaches in Galveston today. Ten footers by the look of them on the TV, which I am sure was drawing all the crazy SE Tx area surfers who feel the need to cheat death every once in a while.

[bob rulz]

I think that is a little dramatic. Ike has never even been a Cat. 4, much less a Cat. 5. Katrina killed over 1,800 people. If Jeff Masters is expecting a storm surge of over 35 feet, which occurred with Katrina, then Texas is in deep Texas trouble. I've read Jeff Masters posts for the last three days, and his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds. This is no Katrina. Look at the satellite and it's quite evident

What's your opinion on his comparisons of Kinetic energy and surge levels? Are you saying that theory is bunk?

I think the storm surge is going to be huge with this system. I went to Lake Pontchartrain and viewed the effects over 250 miles away. Do I expect a storm surge of over 35 feet with Ike? No. I hope that doesn't occur.

Nowhere in any of Jeff Master's blog does he say he expects a storm surge of 35 feet from Ike.

And I thought Katrina's maximum surge was 28 feet in Bay St. Louis?

[fasterdisaster]

I think that is a little dramatic. Ike has never even been a Cat. 4, much less a Cat. 5. Katrina killed over 1,800 people. If Jeff Masters is expecting a storm surge of over 35 feet, which occurred with Katrina, then Texas is in deep Texas trouble. I've read Jeff Masters posts for the last three days, and his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds. This is no Katrina. Look at the satellite and it's quite evident

Uh, Ike was a Category 4 for a long time.

[lonelymike]

Don't mean for this to be insensitive or cruel. But maybe something good can come out of Ike if it gives people second thoughts about building or living on the coast. I cannot for the life of me understand why people take these kinds of risks when these kind of storms can cause such havoc. Maybe there is a silver lining of sorts if govts rethink their illogical building policies.

[lisa0825]

The Spot is not on the Strand. The strand is toward the mainland side of the island. The Seawall is right on the Gulf. The Spot is a popular patio bar/grill overlooking the Gulf.

edited to add: keep in mind that some of them may be people who have mandatory orders to STAY on the island, and are out and about while they still can be, before the weather begins to arrive.

One of my neighbors calls that kind of hanging out toward landfall the Last Supper Effect- smetimes you get to a point where the car is packed and the windows are boarded up but you aren't ready to leave just quite yet. So the last night before you drive out, you hit up your favorite place in town because 48 hours from now things could be changed forever and it could be wiped off the map. I'd bet that at least 80% (and probably more) of the people eating out in Galveston tonight are off the island by noon tomorrow.

Very true. For Rita, after being stuck on 290 for 9 hours (after driving from Texas City to West Houston in 8 hours), I convinced my friend to turn around and go back to her place in Houston. I told her that while MY home was in serious danger, hers was far enough to weather it there. While we weren't on the Seawall, I can relate to what you described. The neighbors there all had a party in the plaza of the condo complex, and that was how *I* felt.... I wasn't sure how much I would have to go home to in a day or two, but I was going to try to enjoy the camaraderie while I could, and face the rest in due time.

[Steve]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

HPC 5 day total may understate some of the rain but may not. 15" around projected landfall in the 5-day total and another big swath of rain (9-10") around St. Louis into SW Illinois (presumably Lowell+Ike influenced). Just an FYI from 12z.

Steve

[tolakram]

I think the storm surge is going to be huge with this system. I went to Lake Pontchartrain and viewed the effects over 250 miles away. Do I expect a storm surge of over 35 feet with Ike? No. I hope that doesn't occur.

You might want to review what he says then, because I can find no mention of 35 foot storm surges, only a comparison of wind fields. Can you show me where he claimed this? Sorry, but you stated 'his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds.' which is a rather strong statement to make about a respected individual.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809