ATL: IKE Discussion

[Galvestongirl]

it appears that this will be a storm surge problem. I think if it stays a 2, and can get in east of the bay Houston will be able to recover quickly. I actually think a direct hit on Galveston is better than on about 20 miles west.

Im in Pasadena, riding it out with my family. We are in well constructed home. Please keep us in your thoughts. I know I can be testy at times, but I have learned so much from all of you and value the time spent here. Its all in good fun.

Im scared, and Im a 36 year old man.


Darryl

I know how you feel, I am a 44 year old woman and afraid. I am boarded up and am going to ride out the storm here in Dickinson with my son in law, daughter, their 7 month old twins and my husband. We were told to shelter in place then when the evacuation orders were called the roads looked too clogged...so we decided to stay. Please keep all who remain behind in the thoughts and prayers.

[crm6360]

Stop overanalyzing every IR frame. Unless it can figure out a way to mix out the dry air and overcome its internal structural problems, it's going to hold steady state. That's looking more likely with time.

[Frank P]

a comment about surge and darkness..

the MS surge during Katrina was approaching its peak during the early daylight hours, which is when houses started coming apart and floating off their foundations... I had many many friends tell me their ability to see things to grab on to because of the daylight, being able to find a tree to swim to and hold on to, and what to avoid while struggling to survive in the surge in all probably saved their life and the ability to save family members as well.... this would probably not have been possible if it were dark... I would NOT want to be in a surge period (I was in the surge during Camille but our house did not fail, but being in 5 feet of water in a dark house not knowing if it were going to float off or be destroyed is NOT a good feeling)... to be in the surge during darkness probably reduces your odds of surviving big time.... talk to anyone who when through Katrina's surge.. they will NOT do it again....

[superfly]

Superfly, If you can't see that Ike is getting better organized then why are you here because you must be blind.

Whether it is becoming better organized is debateable, but it certainly is NOT strengthening. People have also been trying to ride the "better organized" line for the last day now, including many pro-mets last night calling for a cat 4 this morning. How exactly is it better organized? Certainly not the rising pressure, certainly not the expanding wind field, and certainly not the dry slots around the CDO.

[lisa0825]

Don't mean for this to be insensitive or cruel. But maybe something good can come out of Ike if it gives people second thoughts about building or living on the coast. I cannot for the life of me understand why people take these kinds of risks when these kind of storms can cause such havoc. Maybe there is a silver lining of sorts if govts rethink their illogical building policies.

Ports will always require a coastal workforce. Those workers support numerous other industries which also require a local workforce. You will NEVER get rid of coastal communities, unless we find a way to teleport supplies from overseas and down the coast.

Now when it comes to people building huge second homes in vulnerable areas.... well, I have less understanding for that.

[O Town]

Ikes outflow looks to have improved significantly on the west side in the past few hours, hes looking alot more symmetrical.

[tolakram]

The IKE ZOOMED floater has been added to the NHC site.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[dhweather]

Ikes outflow looks to have improved significantly on the west side in the past few hours, hes looking alot more symmetrical.

That would be correct.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think the storm surge is going to be huge with this system. I went to Lake Pontchartrain and viewed the effects over 250 miles away. Do I expect a storm surge of over 35 feet with Ike? No. I hope that doesn't occur.

You might want to review what he says then, because I can find no mention of 35 foot storm surges, only a comparison of wind fields. Can you show me where he claimed this? Sorry, but you stated 'his analysis has bordered on unstable as his strange excitement builds.' which is a rather strong statement to make about a respected individual.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

I'm just basing it on someone saying that Mr. Masters said this was larger and worse than Katrina? It doesn't matter. If he said that it was worse than Katrina I was assuming he meant the storm surge would be worse than Katrina, winds would be higher, etc. Like I said, it doesn't matter. Either way, I don't agree with him. I don't think this compares to Katrina based on satellite. I can't speak about the rest because the storm hasn't hit land yet. Back to Ike.

[bayoubebe]

Ikes outflow looks to have improved significantly on the west side in the past few hours, hes looking alot more symmetrical.

That is an eerie image. Look how close it is to La, MS, AL, Florida! And, it's not even going to "hit" them.(directly)
It looks so big there.

I feel sorry for the folks who didn't evacuate. I think I would have left days ago, orders or not.
My prayers are with those who will be in the path of the storm.

[HouTXmetro]

Ikes outflow looks to have improved significantly on the west side in the past few hours, hes looking alot more symmetrical.

What is going on? It's like Ike just decided to wake up. Looks like the dry air is almost phased out.

[TSmith274]

Superfly, If you can't see that Ike is getting better organized then why are you here because you must be blind.

Whether it is becoming better organized is debateable, but it certainly is NOT strengthening. People have also been trying to ride the "better organized" line for the last day now, including many pro-mets last night calling for a cat 4 this morning. How exactly is it better organized? Certainly not the rising pressure, certainly not the expanding wind field, and certainly not the dry slots around the CDO.

Pressure down to 952.9. There's your confirmation

[Storm Contractor]

put the GFDL in the circular file

Lol now thats my kind of pro met. Humor!

I would have expected something like "ceramic hydro-vortex"

[Txdivermom]

OK I'm watching TWC and it really seems like nobody in Galveston really cares. I'm sure some people have evacuated, but seriously there are people playing on the beach waving, and I'm not talking about 1 or 2, I'm talking about a dozen or more. Also in Houston it doesn't really seem like there are enough people on the roads. It looks like normal 8 PM traffic. Really worried about the people staying down there (especially Galveston)

Most people have left Galveston. I heard just a bit ago on our channel 13 that they think there are maybe 1500 people left. They ones you see on the beach are the sightseers. They are a bit nuts. maybe not just a bit...but there are usually MANY MANY more than you saw. Any time we have a hurricane or trop storm (which hasn't been a serious one in 35 years) they come out in force to surf. Many are young and just don't watch the news. Others just think they've stayed through Carla and Alicia and this one will be fine too. However, the surge in this one will be HUGE.

[artist]

Stop overanalyzing every IR frame. Unless it can figure out a way to mix out the dry air and overcome its internal structural problems, it's going to hold steady state. That's looking more likely with time.

this is from the last NHC discussion -

THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS
CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY
WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

and here is their wind speed just before landfall -

36HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W 105 KT

Now, if they think that is what will happen then why are they forecasting Ike to be a mid line CAT 3 before land fall?

[amawea]

Superfly, If you can't see that Ike is getting better organized then why are you here because you must be blind.

Whether it is becoming better organized is debateable, but it certainly is NOT strengthening. People have also been trying to ride the "better organized" line for the last day now, including many pro-mets last night calling for a cat 4 this morning. How exactly is it better organized? Certainly not the rising pressure, certainly not the expanding wind field, and certainly not the dry slots around the CDO.

The cdo is getting convection. There is an eye forming. The past has nothing to do with now. Pressure does usually rise after an eyewall replacement, but it's just temporary.
edited to correct typos.

[txwatcher91]

Superfly, If you can't see that Ike is getting better organized then why are you here because you must be blind.

Whether it is becoming better organized is debateable, but it certainly is NOT strengthening. People have also been trying to ride the "better organized" line for the last day now, including many pro-mets last night calling for a cat 4 this morning. How exactly is it better organized? Certainly not the rising pressure, certainly not the expanding wind field, and certainly not the dry slots around the CDO.

The eyewall is finally beginning to develop deep convection around it and is showing signs of clearing out, and the pressure has now started to drop, 952 or 953mb extrap from latest pass vs. 954 mb.

[JPmia]

Speaking of people not evacuating, I was listening to the feed from Houston's news channel 13 (CBS) and they were interviewing an emergency manager from Texas City who was stating that they are only calling for "voluntary evacuations" and everyone should implement their "family plan" and that they do not require mandatory evacuations for their city. Now that surprised me and the news anchor appeared a little surprised as well. He then went into a diatribe about government and individual rights or something like that....So with that kind of evacuation policy in some areas nobody should be surprised why people are still on the beach. I have no political judgments either way about it (I don't live there)...but this might explain why people are not taking it seriously.

[TSmith274]

Dr. Steve Lyons just confirmed that we are indeed seeing an eyewall forming. Also said that we should see strenghthening and that cat 3 is possible within a few more hours. Also, he says low cat 4 at landfall might even be in the cards.

Straight from the doctor's mouth

[tailgater]

Really seems to getting it's act together now, I hope all of you in his path stay safe and remember just as many people die after the storm has passed as in the storm. No generators in a closed space.
I have a good friend that had one of those generators that come on as soon as the power goes out( propane I think). His house is off the ground and the fumes went under his house and they all had to go to the hospital, his little girl even stopped breathing for a while.
My Brother in law put his generator in his work shop that is connected to his house so it wouldn't be too loud, in a hour and half his CO alarm was going off.