ATL: IKE Discussion

[bqhurricane]

The seawall is 17 feet tall (which means 17 foot above sea level). You can pile all the sand you want up against the wall, but it doesn't stop it from being 17 feet higher than the water.



(Never mind the dumb fish survey. I don't know why image shack put it on there).

[Txdivermom]

thanks. I have a cousin who has a house on Galveston near the Strand.

I would think that's the best location in Galveston as far as flooding. But still not good. I agree that the Sea Wall is more than 10 feet. Erosion has done in the beach there.

Also, whoever asked. The Galleria area will be fine.

[CoCo2]

I hope all of you doubting Ike's current strengthening and eyewall formation heard what Dr Steve Lyons just said. I posted it a few posts up.

Was it just his opinion or that of the NHC?

please stop your denial... if you act in this manner, it may cost you your life. Take this storm seriously, stormcenter

PLEASE take this storm seriously and get out. If you refuse to leave an area that may face the storm surge, do what they tell us in the New Orleans area, take a sharpie and write your social security number on your arm.

[RL3AO]

VDM reported no eyewall. Looks like that inner core finally died.

[Weatherfreak000]

10PM Advisory confirms that btw to the individual I was debating with. Storm at 26.3N


And I didn't even need a ruler!

[wxman57]

I'm quite encouraged by the steady pressure (vortex 956mb last few minutes) and FL winds all below 90 kts now. Just 24 hours to go and Ike still can't get its engine going. I'll be riding it out about 10 miles west of Galveston Bay at our office in southeast Houston.

As far as the surge into the Bay, just a tiny track change can mean the difference between 15-20 feet into the bay or tides below normal. As Ike is now, it wouldn't produce 25 feet in the bay if it hit just to the west, but 15-20 feet would cause a lot of damage. Not high enough to get to me at work, I'm pretty sure. They say we're outside the surge zone.

I'll be reporting in from work tomorrow after my day shift ends. Nothing else to do but watch the storm at that point.

New NHC advisory in - Cat 2 at landfall (95 kts). I think getting to Cat 3 looks to be a stretch at this point. At least I hope so. I'll have a hand-held anemometer with me at work tomorrow night.

[CronkPSU]

no eyewall??? not even the outer one? well, i guess this thing isn't going to intensify anytime soon! right?

[lrak]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

Thanks Wx Warrior

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

really low pressure? And the buoys up toward the SE coast of Tx are a lot higher? Is thing that huge?

[dwg71]

they backed off intensity now forecast to stay a cat 2.

track relatively same maybe a few miles east,,

hopefully it can swing another 50 miles..

[tolakram]

latest mimic frame, yep no eyewall at all.



So now the question is how long will it take to re-build one.

[terrapintransit]

Dang Terrapin. You took that cork under!

Yea..well his comment was just screaming for a reply

[mvtrucking]

It seems in the last couple of frames that Ike is starting to look ragged again. (Was looking better, but that seems to have subsided)

[ConvergenceZone]

yes, steve lyons is one of the very best tropical meteorologists in the business

Derek, it really appears as if Ike is in a strengthening phase with one eyewall and much more symetrical outflow. Recon does not yet seem to be reflecting this however. What are you seeing here?

low pressure, won't have to catch up with the pressure before the presssure starts to fall again?? I mean, I've heard people say that the pressure is that of a cat 3 storm already, so perhaps the winds may catch up and then if the storm continues to stregthen after that, then the pressure will begin to drop.

[txag2005]

VDM reported no eyewall. Looks like that inner core finally died.

What does this mean in terms of intensification?

[HURAKAN]

Galveston looks like a ghost town.

Link: http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

VDM reported no eyewall. Looks like that inner core finally died.

What does this mean in terms of intensification?

Most likely it means an eye wall replace cycle is underway.

[Javlin]

Just got in an that is one big arse storm there guys I hope you folks in Galveston are ready.The surge is going to be tough,sheezz.Be safe and be smart about it.

[lost cause]

Where I live on the island doesn't get a whole lotta talk: the north side. If Ike strikes anywhere from about mid-Galveston Island to Freeport, the surge will run up the Bay and wrap around the eastern side of the island and flood the backside badly. We're not protected from the Bay by anything, so should the surge come in the "back door," everything from Harborside to Broadway would be in serious danger of flooding.

[CronkPSU]

so i guess Dr Lyons was wrong about the eyewall

[WxGuy1]

no eyewall??? not even the outer one? well, i guess this thing isn't going to intensify anytime soon! right?

Yeah, that may be a good or a bad thing. It may mean that the inner eyewall has 100% dissipated, which would clear the way for intensification. On the other hand, it may also mean that any inner core has been entirely weakened. It's tough for me to know how to read that (the lack of any eyewall). I'm still expecting a huge burst of convection near the center and an eye to pop out by mid-morning, but we'll see. The outflow has expanded quite a bit to the W, indicating that shear in the western Gulf is decreasing.