Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:11pm WDT on Tuesday the 4th of March 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region. Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia, located near 17.3S 114.2E at 11am WDT and moving steadily to the west
southwest, is likely to cross 110E during Wednesday. By this time it is likely
to be weakening and on Thursday it is expected to weaken below cyclone
intensity.
The monsoon trough is becoming more active near 10S and west of 100E. Although
model guidance suggests that a tropical low may develop in the vicinity of 10S
090E during Wednesday, it is likely to be steered quickly to the west and be out
of the region by Thursday or Friday.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Wednesday : High
Thursday : High
Friday : Low
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/SHEM/tc08/99S.INVEST/atlantic/tropics/geo/ir/1km/20080304.0730.meteo7.x.ir1km.99SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-99S-954E.100pc.jpg)