WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri

[P.K.]

Up to T5.0 from RSMC Tokyo so this will be upgraded to a typhoon shortly.

[RattleMan]

Jumped up to 75kt:

WTPQ20 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 16.0N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 17.6N 135.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301800UTC 20.0N 134.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 311800UTC 22.8N 134.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[cycloneye]

JTWC=80kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.6N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.3N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.4N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.6N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.0N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 31.8N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 136.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z,
291500Z AND 292100Z.
//

[CrazyC83]

Strong Category 1 it looks like...

[StormspinnerD2]

80 knots from JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 16.0N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 17.7N 135.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 301800UTC 20.0N 134.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 311800UTC 22.8N 134.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[HURAKAN]

Becoming a beautiful cyclone.

[senorpepr]

Becoming a beautiful cyclone.

Absolutely... nice structure.

[HURAKAN]

Better and better.

[CrazyC83]

Better and better.

Looks to be about 95 kt (1-min).

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 290000
CCAA 29000 47644 NAKRI(0805) 07160 11363 11344 255// 90000=

T5.5.

[brunota2003]

Tell you what. The structural changes since just 24 hours ago have been amazing! That is a very pretty storm

[Chacor]

Up to 85 kts, expected to become 100 kts.

169
WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 16.0N 136.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.7N 135.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 310000UTC 20.1N 134.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 010000UTC 23.1N 135.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Chacor]

Very nice storm.

[Cyclenall]

I like the way this typhoon looks, small and beautiful.

[HURAKAN]

Nice typhoon.

06WNAKRI.95kts-952mb

[CrazyC83]

Up to 85 kts, expected to become 100 kts.

169
WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 16.0N 136.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.7N 135.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 310000UTC 20.1N 134.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 010000UTC 23.1N 135.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

Forecasting 915mb? For a storm of this size, it would likely take a Cat 5 super typhoon to get there...my guess right now is 100 kt/954mb (would be about 968mb if this was sitting in the Atlantic).

[Category 5]

What a pretty storm, looks like Hurricane Maria.

[CrazyC83]

What a pretty storm, looks like Hurricane Maria.

Ahhh, Miss Forgotten considering she was surrounded by deadly monsters...

[HURAKAN]

Major Typhoon.

[Cyclenall]

Now I would say 115 knots at least!! It's strengthening quickly like most typhoons do.