WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri

[HURAKAN]

4 or 5, that is the question [category]

[Chacor]

T6.5 from JTWC (0230z), T5.0 from SAB (2030z).

[HURAKAN]

I think it's settled. Cat. 5.

[HURAKAN]

One of the smallest typhoons I have ever seen.

[RL3AO]

Very small TC. Especially for the WPac.

[CrazyC83]

Kinda looks like Hurricane Felix now...

[CrazyC83]

T3.8 is misleading since it is not properly centered, look at the Raw T:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2008 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 16:07:00 N Lon : 135:58:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 981.7mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.0 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -7.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

29/0230 UTC 16.1N 136.0E T6.0/6.0 NAKRI -- West Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

Kinda looks like Hurricane Felix now...

I see what you mean by that. It now looks like at least a strong category 4 typhoon. The eye is now completely cleared out, very rapid.

[KWT]

Wow Nakri is looking very powerful, that certainly is looking like a strong cat-4 IMO right now and correct it is a small typhoon but its very strong looking right now, wouldn't like to get in its way!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 16.2N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 18.0N 134.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 310600UTC 20.7N 134.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
72HF 010600UTC 24.0N 136.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

That 48 hour forecast is almost unheard of from JMA. 170 kt gusts with 120 kt sustained winds (super typhoon equivalent)?!

[Chacor]

Comparatively, at the same forecast point in the JTWC forecast, they have it at 110 kts 1-minute.

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 135.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.7N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.4N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 29.4N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 33.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 135.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 16.2N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 18.0N 134.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 310600UTC 20.7N 134.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
69HF 010600UTC 24.0N 136.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

[Chacor]

Remains 105 kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 16.2N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 17.8N 134.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 311200UTC 20.5N 134.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 011200UTC 23.8N 136.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. However, it is written using official WMO RSMC information. The post is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NAKRI ADVISORY
ISSUED 11 PM JST...1400Z...THU MAY 29 2008

...TYPHOON NAKRI MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT MEANDERS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...
...REMAINS A COMPACT BUT POWERFUL TYPHOON...


AT 9 PM JST...1200Z...THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON NAKRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.5 EAST...ABOUT 1040 KM...645 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF HAGÅTÑA GUAM...ABOUT 1105 KM...685 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN... AND ABOUT 1120
KM...700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA.


TYPHOON NAKRI IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KM/H...3 MPH...AND A TURN NORTHWARDS
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...NAKRI IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT IWO JIMA DIRECTLY...ALTHOUGH SOME TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 195 KM/H...120 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 280 KM/H
OR 175 MPH. NAKRI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TYPHOON NAKRI IS A SMALL SYSTEM. 30-KNOT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
175 MILES FROM THE CENTRE...WHILE 50-KNOT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 KM
OR 90 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 HPA... 27.46 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 9 PM JST POSITION...16.2 N 135.5 E. MOVEMENT TOWARDS WEST AT
5 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 195 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930
HPA.

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be going through an ERC? I'd say it peaked at 125 kt/935mb.

[cycloneye]

JTWC Discussion of Typhoon Narki:

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS MOVING WESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 03 KNOTS.
THE SMALL IRREGULAR EYE HAS PERSISTED, THOUGH RECENTLY IT
APPEARS TO BE FILLING. INTENSITY INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH REMAINS THE PRIMARY
EXHAUST MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM.

B. THE CURRENT POSITION OF TY 06W IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH POSITION CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED EYE. A 291008Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A CONCEN-
TRIC EYE, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM IN DIAMETER, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND 6.0
FROM KNES. TY 06W REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL EXTEN-
SION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS PRE-
VENTING A MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STORM, AND IS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR DEGRADING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 06W
LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW TO MOD-
ERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
3. FORECAST REASONING

A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING, HOWEVER THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER DUE TO
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR-
WARD TRACK SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STEERING INFLU-
ENCE INTENSIFIES AND THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES MORE NORTHWARD, INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL MITIGATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN THE
WEAKENING TREND NEAR TAU 72.

C. TY 06W WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AT THIS
POINT INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE INCREASED VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER MID-LATITUDE AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM. THESE CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INDUCE BOTH
STEADY WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72
AND ENDING BY TAU 120.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow....that is one hell of a sight, a JMA forecast expecting sustained winds of 120 knots.

The 1500z update keeps Nakri at 105kts but still forecasts 115kts in the next 24 hours. If that verifies Nakri will be the strongest typhoon in years!

[Eyewall]

im confused how is 120kts the strongest in years? is it a 10 min wind avg?