Still hanging on in there. Down to 65 kts.
WTPQ20 RJTD 311500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311500UTC 20.0N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 22.8N 133.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 021200UTC 27.3N 135.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 031200UTC 32.1N 142.5E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
StormspinnerD2
WTJP21 RJTD 311800
WARNING 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0805 NAKRI (0805) 970 HPA
AT 20.2N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.8N 133.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.2N 139.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 33.7N 146.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0805 NAKRI (0805) 970 HPA
AT 20.2N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.8N 133.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.2N 139.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 33.7N 146.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
081
WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.7N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.4N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.5N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 33.5N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 133.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST
OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.7N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.4N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.5N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 33.5N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 133.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST
OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
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Still 65kt:
WTPQ20 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 21.5N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 26.5N 135.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 030600UTC 32.5N 142.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040600UTC 34.3N 148.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPQ20 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 21.5N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 26.5N 135.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 030600UTC 32.5N 142.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 040600UTC 34.3N 148.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
0 likes
WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 22.3N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 28.2N 136.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031200UTC 33.1N 142.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
Still looks quite good.
NRL says 70 kts — which is an intensification.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 22.3N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 28.2N 136.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031200UTC 33.1N 142.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
Still looks quite good.
NRL says 70 kts — which is an intensification.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Typhoon Nakri 0805 (06W)
Back up to 70kts.
WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 23.5N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 29.5N 137.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031800UTC 34.2N 145.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 23.5N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 29.5N 137.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031800UTC 34.2N 145.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
233
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.9N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.4N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 34.0N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 34.8N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 134.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT TY 06W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
THE TYPHOON WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS INCREASING SHEAR WILL
REVERSE THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.9N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.4N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 34.0N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 34.8N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 134.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT TY 06W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
THE TYPHOON WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS INCREASING SHEAR WILL
REVERSE THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
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brunota2003
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StormspinnerD2
70 kt.
WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 24.3N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 30.5N 138.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031800UTC 34.2N 145.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 24.3N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 30.5N 138.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031800UTC 34.2N 145.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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