Invest 91L in SE Caribbean=(Gone from NRL)

[fci]

I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.

I was going to suggest that but last time I suggested that the NHC might just want to use a questionable system just as a live test of procedures, etc., you'd think I'd committed some sort of horrible crime. In fact, we just used it to test our designation procedures and web page.

In any case, the convection is collapsing and the low-level swirl is already dissipating. Nothing to get excited about.

I Immediately thought of the "mini controversy' that you stirred up this time last year when an invest was designated and you suggested that it might be a "test".

That was about a 30 page thread with lots of ridiculous indignation and what-not rambling on and on and on and on........

(and I thought as I got older my memory would fail me....

[Thunder44]

I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.

I was going to suggest that but last time I suggested that the NHC might just want to use a questionable system just as a live test of procedures, etc., you'd think I'd committed some sort of horrible crime. In fact, we just used it to test our designation procedures and web page.

In any case, the convection is collapsing and the low-level swirl is already dissipating. Nothing to get excited about.

I was thinking the same thing! Apparently some thought it was taboo to believe the NHC could do such a thing.

Well, they do have new graphics to test out the NHC site this year.

And I believe someone posted last year that it could be sometimes the Navy's own interest in it, that initiated these invests.

[vaffie]

12Z WRF model keeps it alive long enough for you to see it cross central Cuba and go out to sea.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

12Z GFDL loses it in the central Caribbean.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

644
ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TRINIDAD IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO VENEZUELA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[tropicana]

The actual airport on Trinidad, Piarco Airport located in the central part of the island, received just 2mm of rain this afternoon, but 2 reporting stations ..both located in the north-western part of the island, saw 18mm- 25mm (up to an inch) reported in just an hour or 2 late this afternoon/early this evening.

-justin-

[cycloneye]

125
WHXX01 KWBC 120102
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0102 UTC THU JUN 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080612 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080612 0000 080612 1200 080613 0000 080613 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 59.5W 10.0N 62.2W 10.7N 64.7W 11.7N 67.6W
BAMD 9.5N 59.5W 10.0N 62.4W 10.8N 65.2W 11.6N 67.9W
BAMM 9.5N 59.5W 9.9N 62.2W 10.6N 64.9W 11.2N 67.5W
LBAR 9.5N 59.5W 10.3N 62.4W 11.5N 65.5W 12.8N 68.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080614 0000 080615 0000 080616 0000 080617 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 70.3W 15.9N 75.2W 18.6N 78.9W 22.8N 80.8W
BAMD 12.5N 70.1W 14.4N 73.4W 17.3N 75.0W 21.2N 75.1W
BAMM 12.1N 69.9W 14.0N 74.0W 16.4N 77.0W 19.8N 79.3W
LBAR 14.4N 70.7W 18.2N 72.7W 23.1N 70.9W 26.7N 65.1W
SHIP 46KTS 54KTS 50KTS 48KTS
DSHP 42KTS 50KTS 46KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 59.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[george_r_1961]

Looks like the models want to take this into a high shear area. Doubtful anything will come out of this.

[Meso]

Seems this year the intensity estimates from the models have been a bit high on all the invests.Although I guess there haven't really been sufficient invests to make sure

[StormspinnerD2]

That's all she wrote.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[srainhoutx]

I can almost hear wxman57 typing on the keyboard right now.... expecting "Bones" any moment to show up.

[wxman57]

You read my mind...

[HouTXmetro]

Don't call it a comeback but convection is refiring.

[gatorcane]

It's dead folks but then again its only June and development is not likely in the eastern Caribbean.

[boca]

Actually it looks pretty good its the best looking wave this year for the Leeward and Windward Islands. This will be probably be Florida's rain maker by early next week,although the model now aren't as deep with the trough as in earlier runs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

Martinique Radar shows scattered showers in the Grenadines,St Vincent,St Lucia and Martinique.

[Vortex]

Boca,

I think you might be right in terms of Florida's rain maker early next week. I'll break down my thoughts as the models become more consistent but I think this has the potential for a fairly significant rain event for portions of southern and central Florida for Monday night/Tuesday.

[Janie2006]

You read my mind...

Hahahahahaha! I love that graphic!

This morning's GFS hints at tropical wx for Florida in about 10 days, but you know how off the model can be at that range.

[CrazyC83]

It had little chance to begin with.

[HURAKAN]

Very early to press your luck!!!!

[Frank2]

Oy, those Trekkies (or is it Trekies)...

Looks well-sheared (former 91L, not Bones)...

LOL