WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[KWT]

It sort of looks like most of the deeper convection is on the southern side of the system though its hard to tell to be honest. Still its back to Ty. status and track now seems to be a compramise between the early track and the track from yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look as organized as it did before.

[KWT]

yep I agree Hurakan that backs up my earlier idea that this system has become somewhat lop-sided and that has only increased over the past few hours. I guess shear may well be causing this lop-sided look?

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

dont see a sheared system... I see one that has lost its inner-core

[Derek Ortt]

that said, once the core comes together, we may see significant intensification of this typhoon. It also is likely to be a very large typhoon now

[KWT]

Oh yeah thats really impressive Derek, the inner core is just totally gone no hint of a eyewall nor of an eye either, I suppose it was the systems stay over land that caused that then.

The question is how long will it take for it to re-organise that inner core, esp given if its a large system as derek reckons.

[ekal]

Wilma reorganized her inner-core pretty rapidly after she came off the Yucatan (12 to 18 hours?), and her convection was not as deep. I imagine this one could blow up quickly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

85h shows no core what so ever with this cyclone. Just a band that is open on the northern quad, this system is not going to organize very fast with that in mind. But when it happens as Derek says, it will be a very very large cyclone.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

maybe the start of it rebuilding its core

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 230000
CCAA 23000 47644 FENGSHEN(0806) 09171 11177 13304 230// 93409=

JMA pegs it at T3.0.

[Derek Ortt]

its probably below typhoon status now, but I expect it to have regained typhoon status within the next 24

[senorpepr]

The center seems to have passed close to old Clark AB which is now getting heavy rain and gusty SSE winds (for Clark, this combination of heavy rain and SSE wind indicates very strong S-SW winds in the lower levels which are deflected due to the nearby mountains). Meanwhile, as expected, Subic is now getting some strong rainsqualls as the winds come in off the SCS with gusts so far to 59 mph and heavy rains. Subic is notorious for such conditions with strong SW flow due either to storms or monsoon surges.

Steve

Thanks, Steve. Professional insight, such as your experience in the Philippines, is invaluable. We appreciate it.

[Chacor]

Twenty-eight survivors have been found from a Philippine ferry carrying more than 700 people that capsized in a typhoon, a local radio station says.

Four other people were found alive earlier, but hundreds remain missing after a rescue ship that reached the upturned vessel found no signs of life.

The 28 had been drifting in a life-raft for 24 hours after the ferry tipped over off Sibuyan island, reports said.

The Red Cross estimates the storm has left 155 people dead nationwide.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7468493.stm

[HURAKAN]

Coming back.

[HURAKAN]

There is the center. This image is about an hour old.

[HURAKAN]

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) O7W HAS WEAKENED 10 KNOTS BELOW TYPHOON STREN-
GTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A STILL
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE EQUATORWARD HEMISPHERE OF
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BUT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BE-
COME SHEARED WESTWARD.
B. TS 07W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING IN-
FLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THAT TS 07W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH PERSISTENT 20 TO 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WIND ADVECTING THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WESTWARD. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SHEAR IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECTING THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH NO CLEAR POLEWARD
EXHAUST MECHANISM AND INCREASINGLY DISRUPTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
FIX CONFIDENCE IS GOOD WITH THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED
ON A DEFINED LLCC PRESENT IN A 222255Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CUR-
RENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55
KNOTS FROM RJTD, KNES AND PGTW AND A 222141Z QUICKSCAT PASS DEPICT-
ING 35 TO 55 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULA-
TION.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF WESTWARD SHIFT IN
THE TRACK AND A 10 KNOT WEAKENING OF THE STORM DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STR THROUGH TAU 12 BUT WILL TURN MORE
POLEWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 48. RECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SUPPORT THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE STR WITH THE ANTI-
CYCLONE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
OF TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 24 TO 36 AND WILL AID IN FURTHER DEGRADING THE
RIDGE CREATING A WEAKNESS THAT WILL FACILITATE RECURVATURE. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE AND GAIN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS AIDS AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND UKMET WHICH SHOW A SLOWER TURN NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST CHINA EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL
AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE CUR-
RENT FORECAST. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREAS-
ING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR.
AS TS 07W RECURVES NEAR TAU 36, INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AND SHEAR
WILL USHER IN A WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-EAST-
WARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH OF TAIWAN, BEGIN-
ING EXTRATROPICAL (XT) TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72 AND BECOMING FULLY
XT BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

NNNN

[Ed Mahmoud]

MANILA, Philippines (CNN) -- Rescuers have found at least 33 survivors and at least six dead among the nearly 750 aboard a ferry that capsized in a typhoon that battered the southern Philippines, a Red Cross official said Monday.

Relatives wait in Manila port Sunday for news; few survivors have been rescued, officials said.

1 of 3 Fishermen found 30 survivors from the ferry Princess of Stars, which rolled over early Saturday morning, said Richard Gordon, the head of the Philippines Red Cross and a member of the country's Senate. One person died after being picked up, and another was lost during rescue efforts, he said, but the remaining 28 have been delivered to police.

Filipino troops have found five more survivors and five dead, Gordon said, bringing the known toll from the accident to six.

"There's quite a few people out there that are still missing," he said. "We are trying our best to find them, and I hope we could get some help." Watch images of the ferry sinking »

The Princess of Stars had 749 passengers and crew aboard when it overturned about a mile off the shore of Sibuyan Island early Saturday as Typhoon Fengshen pummeled the Philippines.

The crew of the vessel, which can hold up to 2,000 people, reported that its engines had failed during a regular run from Manila and Cebu City, according to Vice Adm. Wilfredo Tamayo, the head of the country's coast guard.

Rescuers knocked on the ferry's hull Sunday evening in hopes of hearing signs of survivors within the capsized ship, the captain of which had given orders to abandon it before contact was lost. Watch a report on the search for the missing »

"Many of them were wearing life jackets," Gordon said. "Hopefully we can still find them alive."

The typhoon has killed at least 140 people on land, with at least 255 more reported missing, he said.


The storm had not been expected to hit the Philippines when it first formed last week. But the storm struck the islands Friday with winds of about 140 km/h (90 p.m.) before moving north toward China and Taiwan. A storm warning posted along the ferry's course would not have required the vessel to cancel its trip, but relatives of the passengers have questioned why the ship was allowed to leave port.

"They should not have let the ship sail because there was a typhoon coming," Isadora Salinas said. "How can they do that? They won't even give out information about what happened."


Gordon said Sulpicio Lines -- which operates the ferry -- has a history of previous accidents, "and people are pouncing on them right now."

"The mood here is very ugly," he said.

Link

[ekal]

On second thought, I don't know about this storm bombing out with 40 knots of wind shear.



I think KWT was right. Looking at an infrared loop, cirrus clouds are screaming towards the southwest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Still, none of this lessens the tragedy there in the Philippines.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like its got a southern 'eyewall' back

[HURAKAN]