WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has 28+ knots of shear over it right now. This should be a exposed LLC right now, I will be amazed if this forms a closed eye if the shear keeps increasing.

Edit,,,It appears to be closer to 32 knots of shear, with a "shear max" with 40+ knots coming its way.

[weatherbud]

MANILA, Philippines--(UPDATE) Typhoon Frank (international code name: Fengshen) has maintained its strength and its eye was located 90 kilometers southeast of Metro Manila (13.9°N 121.5°E) in the latest bulletin issued by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the state weather bureau.

In its 5 a.m. update, Pagasa said Frank was forecast to move north northwest at 15 kilometers per hour and had maximum winds of 120 kph and gustiness of up to 150 kph.

By Monday morning, Frank is expected to be 70 kilometers northwest of Baguio City and 260 kilometers west southwest of Basco, Batanes by Tuesday. By Wednesday, it is expected to be 330 kilometers northwest of Basco, Batanes.


Fireman and members of a rescue group help an elderly woman out of the Jaro
river near Iloilo city, central Philippines June 21, 2008. Typhoon Fengshen killed
at least 17 people in floods and landslides in the Philippines and left a ferry adrift
with over 700 passengers and crew on Saturday. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

LIST OF AFFECTED AREAS

Typhoon death toll set to rise after ferry capsize

A group of 28 ferry passengers and crew washed ashore after drifting at sea for more than a day from the site where a typhoon capsized their ship and left most of the hundreds aboard missing and presumed dead, officials said Monday.

Manila's DZBB radio said the survivors, 20 male passengers, four women and four crewmen, drifted at sea for more than 24 hours wearing their lifejackets, reaching Mulanay township in eastern Quezon province late Sunday. Coast guard chief Vice Adm. Wilfredo Tamayo announced early Monday that they had been found, raising the total number of survivors to 38. All were discovered after making it to land.

Tamayo said rescuers may have to bore a hole in the ship to allow divers access to area where many aboard the ferry were believed to have been trapped.


The MV Princess of the Stars lies capsized in the water off Sibuyan island,
central Philippines, before sinking. The ferry was carrying 740 people when
it went down in heavy seas on Saturday. Credits: Philippine Navy. AP

SOURCE


Typhoon death toll reaches 229 in Philippines

The past weekend marked one of the darkest dates in the Philippines' natural disaster-battering history, with reports of floods, landslides, flooded streets and a sunken ship with over 700 passengers on board. The country's Red Cross and disaster relief authorities on Sunday night announced that at least 229 people have been killed, 700 others missing as typhoon "Fengshen" ripped through the archipelago since Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) on Sunday morning reported that floods, storm surge, and landslides have affected 366,444 people, of which, 70,717 are in evacuation centers. According to the disaster relief agency, 229 people were confirmed dead in typhoon-caused accidents. Electricity, telephone lines and mobile phone signals were cut off in many parts of the archipelagic state, including capital Metro Manila. The storm has stranded 5,095 passengers, 288 rolling cargo, 90 trucks, 59 passenger buses, 48 small vehicles, and eight sea vessels, the NDCC said.

Packing sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 150 kilometers per hour, the typhoon entered the Philippines from the eastern Samar island on Friday. It shifted course Sunday to the northwest and battered Manila at dawn, dumping heavy rain on the capital.


Residents wade through knee-deep floodwaters after a Typhoon Fengshen pelted
Metro Manila with torrential rain and high winds June 22, 2008.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

Source

[KWT]

I think looking at the images I think both myself and Derek was right. This system clearly did lose its inner core and the microwave imagery showed that but with the center becoming exposed it does seem like shear was making all the convection lop-sided onto the southern side.

[HURAKAN]

Former glory hasn't been restored.

[Chacor]

574
WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 17.9N 116.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 20.7N 115.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 251200UTC 23.3N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 261200UTC 25.5N 119.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[HurricaneRobert]

Where is it going is the most important question. It could have a lot of time to reorganize, considering that the longest-lived tropical cyclone was Typhoon Wayne, which spent a couple of weeks playing pong in the South China Sea. It doesn't look like its in a hurry to get to Taiwan, because it looks like its still headed west.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well convection has deepened in the sheared convection however the overall structure still hasn't improved and won't do till the shear eases off somewhat further, when that will be I'm not sure though!

[jams]

Microwave imageries clearly showed the centre was still east of 116.0E at 18Z, nearly all convections were sheared to the SW once formed....

[HURAKAN]

Moving north.

[HURAKAN]

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED BUT DEEP CONVECT-
ION QUICKLY RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 231136Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. TS
07W HAS TRACKED INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT.
B. DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 700/500MB CHARTS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. AS EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-
WARD AFTER PASSING ACROSS LUZON UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF LUZON AND HAS
NOW RETURNED TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS THE STR WEAKENED. THE
ANALYSES STILL SHOW HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROPAGATING (AND DEEPENING) OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND A WEAKNESS SITUATED JUST WEST OF TAIWAN. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD WITH NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
INHIBITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
DEFINED CENTER EVIDENT ON THE 231017Z WINDSAT 36 GHZ IMAGE AND THE
231136Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE MAJORITY OF THE IR SATELLITE POSITION
FIXES ARE ERRONEOUSLY FOLLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARING WESTWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TRACK OR PHIL-
OSOPHY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
B. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE WEAKNESS
OVER TAIWAN ALLOWING TS 07W TO TRACK NORTHWARD, WEST OF TAIWAN. THE
QUESTION IS WHEN. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SHARPLY FROM TAU 0 WITH
UKMET EGRR INDICATING CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL
NORTH OF HONG KONG. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS (JGSM, GFS, NOGAPS,
WBAR, ECMWF, GFDN, TC-LAPS) SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SUPPORTING A RECURVE
SCENARIO INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE WEAKNESS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND
VWS DECREASES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
KYUSHU, JAPAN AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72.
THE MODELS INDICATE COMPLETION OF ETT BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 AS WELL
AS FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

JTWC New Slogan: "Bringing you changes every 7 hours."

[HURAKAN]

Most of the convection is to the south of the center.

[HurricaneBill]

When was the last time the Philippines were struck by such a destructive typhoon so early in the season?

It's only the end of June and the Philippines have been struck by 2 typhoons. I wonder what the rest of 2008 has in store for the Philippines.

[KWT]

Center looks to have been slightly better wrapped under the convection but it still looks a bit of a mess right now with most of the deep convection now on the SW/S side of the center, shear seems to have switched direction a little but is still present.

[HURAKAN]

Ferry dead now 70, brings total toll from ‘Frank’ to 361

48 survivors rescued--Coast Guard

By Joel Guinto
INQUIRER.net
First Posted 19:23:00 06/24/2008


MANILA, Philippines -- (UPDATE) Divers recovered three bodies from the wreckage of the MV Princess of the Stars off Romblon province, bringing the death toll from the capsized ferry to 70, while 48 survivors have been rescued, the Philippine Coast Guard reported Tuesday evening.

Meanwhile, the number of persons confirmed killed during typhoon “Frank” (international codename: Fengshen), mostly by floods, reached 291. With the 70 ferry fatalities, this brought the total to 361. Another 166 persons were injured, Health Undersecretary Mario Villaverde said.

Frogmen from the Philippine Navy and the Philippine Coast Guard entered the MV Princess of the Stare for the first time Tuesday morning and fished out the three bodies.

The divers saw what looked like other human bodies in the dark waters.

The search was suspended for the night, but will resume Wednesday morning, said Lieutenant Commander Rogelio Villanueva, who represented the Coast Guard during the 6 p.m. briefing of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC).

"There were indications [of more bodies inside the ferry] but there was poor illumination," Villanueva said.

Asked if there was an estimate of how many bodies were left inside the wreckage, Villanueva said: "We do not want to speculate at this point in time."

"Hopefully, tomorrow [Wednesday] we can retrieve more bodies," he said.

The inter-island ferry, owned by Sulpicio Lines, capsized in rough waters last Saturday at the height of Frank’s onslaught.

Villanueva said 67 fatalities were recovered from shore, 55 from Claveria town in Quezon province; eight from San Fernando town, Romblon province; and four from Mulanay town in Quezon.

Of the 48 survivors, 39 were found in Mulanay, five in Claveria, and four in San Fernando, Villanueva said, adding the number of survivors had been trimmed down from the 57 total they gave Monday evening, after some were found to have been involved in other sea mishaps.

Villanueva said divers were careful not to "indiscriminately" cut through the ship, since it might cause the wreck to sink, or endanger the rescuers.

[Chacor]

Hong Kong has raised Typhoon Signal 3:

Bulletin issued at 19:45 HKT 24/Jun/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 8 p.m., Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was estimated to
be about 140 kilometres south-southeast of Hong Kong (near
21.2 degrees north 114.9 degrees east) and is forecast to
move north or north-northwest at about 16 kilometres per
hour in the general direction of the Pearl River Estuary.

[Chacor]

Macau has raised standby Signal 1.

[jams]

Hong Kong has raised Typhoon Signal 3:

Bulletin issued at 19:45 HKT 24/Jun/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 8 p.m., Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was estimated to
be about 140 kilometres south-southeast of Hong Kong (near
21.2 degrees north 114.9 degrees east) and is forecast to
move north or north-northwest at about 16 kilometres per
hour in the general direction of the Pearl River Estuary.

We will be having signal no. 8 in 2 hours, gales over offshore waters now

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 20:50 HKT 24/Jun/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 9 p.m., Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was estimated to
be about 130 kilometres south-southeast of Hong Kong (near
21.3 degrees north 114.8 degrees east) and is forecast to
move north or north-northwest at about 16 kilometres per
hour in the general direction of the Pearl River Estuary.

Fengshen continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. Local
winds are expected to strengthen gradually.

According to the present forecast track, Fengshen will be
rather close to Hong Kong in the early morning tomorrow.
It is expected to issue Gale or Storm Wind Signal No.8 at
or before 11p.m. tonight.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Cheung Chau and Sai Kung were 47 and 51 kilometres per hour
respectively with maximum gusts 62 and 77 kilometres per
hour respectively.