WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[Chacor]

Still a TS.

465
WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 23.5N 113.5E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 25.5N 113.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[JonathanBelles]

You almost cant get more of a direct hit. Did it technically landfall in HK?

[P.K.]

The closest I saw it to Hong Kong based on the hourly advisories from the Hong Kong Observatory was the centre being 15km away.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it was a strong tropical storm at Hong Kong - my guess is around 50-55 kt.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 24N 114E
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA =

[RattleMan]

Just incase any of you missed any, or just want all the advisories in one, here is my WTPQ20 RJTD archive for Fengshen:

http://www.webcitation.org/5Yqcp7ZXD

[cycloneye]

The last advisory.

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 029
WTPN31 PGTW 251500
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 029
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.8N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 113.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W
(FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A SERIES OF RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TD 07W HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY INLAND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS, RESULTING IN A STEADY DECREASE OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 12.
THEREFORE,
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//

[senorpepr]

Tonight, I'll turn off the surface plot floater for Fengshen. I'm looking for any feedback from that, plus any ideas for future products. I have a list of products (both storm floaters plus basin synoptic charts) that I'm working on now. I'm even trying to build some shear charts.

[Chacor]

No longer on the JMA's high seas bulletin.

[Hello32020]

Wow that forecast was all over the place, was surprised each time it changed.

[RattleMan]

NRL archives all of the JTWC's forecast graphics; you can see how the JTWC did here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... ives/2008/

Look for filenames beginning with "wp072008" near the bottom.

[Sanibel]

Times saying 1300 dead in Fengshen - over 800 on ferry boat.

[KWT]

Well thats very bad news, yet another 1000 dead in a system, any more big hits and this year will become memorable for bad reasons.

[Ad Novoxium]

Sadly, I think we have our Storm of the Month. Two thousand-killers in one year is two too many. In two MONTHS?!?

[Chacor]

Times saying 1300 dead in Fengshen - over 800 on ferry boat.

The ferry was carrying 10 tonnes of poisonous pesticides, too.

[HurricaneBill]

Fengshen Storm Kills Nine In Southern China

[HurricaneBill]

The ferry was carrying 10 tonnes of poisonous pesticides, too.

That's not all it was carrying.

Drums of asphalt, transformers also found in capsized ship

[HurricaneBill]

Sulpicio Lines files case vs PAGASA for 'faulty forecasting'

[Chacor]

They have no case against PAGASA. The storm baffled everyone, so are they going to sue the JMA and JTWC as well? Idiots.

[beaufort12]

To say that everyone was fooled by this storm is an understatement. I am in Shenzhen China, by Hong Kong. The storm was initially forecast to miss mainland China completely, then hit south east china, then finally ignored all thoughts of recurvature and came ashore here, bringing rain and some gusty winds. I have used this board for quite a few years and am now living in China. I am glad I remembered there was a forum at S2K that included the western pacific and will use it for the remainder of the typhoon season. And of course, as I do every year, I will use this site to monitor the action in the Atlantic and the Caribbean. Thanks Storm2K!