Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[cycloneye]

Here is the new invest in the EPAC.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep942008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200806241836
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2008, DB, O, 2008062418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942008
EP, 94, 2008062418, , BEST, 0, 72N, 961W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks pretty good, and Canadian and GFS both seem to like it.

Cloud tops have warmed a tad the last few hours near what appears to be the center, perhaps that is diurnally related.

[cycloneye]

386
WHXX01 KMIA 241847
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC TUE JUN 24 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080624 1800 080625 0600 080625 1800 080626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.2N 96.1W 7.7N 98.5W 8.3N 100.9W 8.9N 103.1W
BAMD 7.2N 96.1W 6.9N 98.7W 6.8N 101.4W 6.7N 104.0W
BAMM 7.2N 96.1W 7.3N 98.4W 7.7N 100.7W 8.2N 102.9W
LBAR 7.2N 96.1W 7.3N 98.7W 8.0N 101.7W 8.8N 105.0W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080626 1800 080627 1800 080628 1800 080629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.4N 105.4W 11.1N 109.4W 13.1N 112.6W 15.3N 115.7W
BAMD 6.6N 106.4W 6.8N 110.5W 6.9N 114.2W 6.7N 117.8W
BAMM 8.7N 105.1W 10.1N 109.1W 12.0N 112.8W 14.0N 116.1W
LBAR 9.5N 108.2W 11.3N 114.1W 11.5N 120.7W 12.0N 122.5W
SHIP 49KTS 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS
DSHP 49KTS 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.2N LONCUR = 96.1W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 93.3W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 90.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RattleMan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241740
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tolakram]

This thread is useless without the chance of development graphic.

[cycloneye]

Floater over 94E.

[KWT]

Convecton is still pretty impressive though its not amazingly well organised. That should steadily improve I'd have thought given upper atmospheric conditions over the disturbance right now and the models do seem to like it with several models like the GFS/CMC/ECM developing this into quite a strong system whilst the SHIPS takes this upto hurricane strength. I strongly suspect that this will be tropical depression and probably more in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

238
ABPZ20 KNHC 242329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 24 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS
POORLY-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Where is RL3AO with the graphic?

[wyq614]

Chinese trackers are all busy tracking Fengshen but a 94E thread has been started.
It seems that 94E does have a chance, ECWMF expects it to develop and become BORIS in a short time, also, a CRISTINA will develop to the east of BORIS, with a broader area of convection and higher intensity.

[RL3AO]

[Derek Ortt]

nwhhc evening outlook mentioned this disturbance for the first time as well

[americanrebel]

I go with Code Blue with this one and Code Gray for the next one that isn't even an investment yet.

[Meso]

Investment O_o...

And the next one will likely form too if the conditions stay the same,the models are actually developing the second one better.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-avn.html

Can see convection beginning to consolidate on the loop

[KWT]

Convection has indeed strengthened and got better organised with this invest overnight. ECM does indeed develop this and has a closed system by 72hrs.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 251145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A POORLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 251252
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC WED JUN 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080625 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080625 1200 080626 0000 080626 1200 080627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.6N 99.3W 9.6N 101.8W 10.5N 104.2W 11.3N 106.7W
BAMD 8.6N 99.3W 9.1N 101.6W 9.6N 103.8W 10.1N 105.8W
BAMM 8.6N 99.3W 9.5N 101.6W 10.2N 103.8W 10.8N 106.0W
LBAR 8.6N 99.3W 9.5N 101.8W 10.4N 104.6W 11.4N 107.3W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080627 1200 080628 1200 080629 1200 080630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 108.7W 13.2N 112.8W 14.9N 116.9W 16.0N 121.5W
BAMD 10.5N 107.7W 11.4N 111.4W 12.0N 115.5W 13.1N 120.0W
BAMM 11.5N 108.2W 13.0N 112.3W 14.4N 117.3W 15.8N 122.9W
LBAR 12.4N 109.9W 14.5N 115.0W 16.1N 120.5W 13.2N 123.8W
SHIP 52KTS 66KTS 67KTS 63KTS
DSHP 52KTS 66KTS 67KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.6N LONCUR = 99.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 7.2N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 7.4N LONM24 = 94.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Meso]

Getting better organized it seems.Looks like it's trying to consolidate around 101.5E 8.5N

[cycloneye]

Slowly getting more organized.

[tolakram]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


OJ

[CrazyC83]

It's quite a large system too...