Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[Chacor]

199
WTPZ32 KNHC 011452
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008

...BORIS STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE MORE
SLOWLY...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140 MILES
...1835 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION AT A GRADUALLY DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND BORIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...125.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

634
WTPZ42 KNHC 011459
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008

THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME OBSCURED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DISAPPEARING SHORTLY AFTER 0900 UTC
WHEN A TRMM OVERPASS REVEALED ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
STILL 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 65 KT. BORIS MIGHT HOLD ON TO HURRICANE STATUS A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER...BUT A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOWLY COOL
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...THEN DECREASE FASTER AFTER THE
CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. A MORE RAPID DECLINE IS FORECAST AT 3
TO 5 DAYS DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS AND AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE WIND SHEAR BY THAT TIME...AND BORIS COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
GENERALLY CALLS FOR FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

BORIS APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
270/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS
TO ERODE SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER LOW
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST INDICATES A DECELERATION AND A SLIGHT BEND TO THE
RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AFTER THE WEAKENING CYCLONE PROCEEDS WITHIN
THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.6N 125.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.7N 126.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 127.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 15.3N 129.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 15.2N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1200Z 14.8N 137.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

Lets not forget our friend Boris Below hurricane strengh at the next advisory.

WHXX01 KMIA 011924
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1924 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080701 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800 080703 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 125.0W 15.4N 126.7W 16.0N 128.6W 16.2N 130.4W
BAMD 14.8N 125.0W 15.5N 126.6W 16.3N 128.1W 17.3N 129.6W
BAMM 14.8N 125.0W 15.4N 126.5W 16.2N 128.0W 17.1N 129.3W
LBAR 14.8N 125.0W 15.4N 126.6W 16.4N 128.4W 17.6N 129.8W
SHIP 60KTS 56KTS 53KTS 46KTS
DSHP 60KTS 56KTS 53KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1800 080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 132.0W 15.4N 134.7W 14.9N 137.8W 14.1N 143.1W
BAMD 18.3N 131.0W 19.4N 134.1W 19.1N 138.3W 18.2N 143.3W
BAMM 17.6N 130.5W 18.0N 133.3W 17.0N 137.5W 15.5N 142.5W
LBAR 18.4N 131.1W 19.3N 133.5W 18.5N 136.1W 17.6N 139.0W
SHIP 40KTS 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 40KTS 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 125.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 123.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 121.5W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM

[KWT]

Well we now have tropical storm Boris as it has weakened a little, still a fairly stubborn little storm this one, whats the odds of the eye coming back again!

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm


WTPZ32 KNHC 012044
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008

...BORIS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1145 MILES...1840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...15.0 N...125.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[RL3AO]

Still 60kts

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080702 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000 080703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 125.6W 15.9N 127.1W 16.5N 128.6W 16.5N 130.1W
BAMD 15.3N 125.6W 15.9N 127.0W 16.7N 128.3W 17.5N 129.4W
BAMM 15.3N 125.6W 15.9N 126.9W 16.8N 128.1W 17.5N 129.0W
LBAR 15.3N 125.6W 16.0N 127.1W 17.2N 128.5W 18.1N 129.8W
SHIP 60KTS 58KTS 53KTS 46KTS
DSHP 60KTS 58KTS 53KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 0000 080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 131.3W 16.1N 133.5W 15.7N 136.7W 15.1N 141.7W
BAMD 18.2N 130.6W 18.7N 134.1W 17.5N 139.2W 16.0N 144.5W
BAMM 18.0N 130.1W 18.1N 133.1W 17.0N 137.5W 15.7N 142.4W
LBAR 19.2N 131.1W 20.0N 134.0W 19.3N 137.6W 17.9N 141.5W
SHIP 38KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 125.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 124.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 122.5W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 185NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

481
WTPZ42 KNHC 020246
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF BORIS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE
EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER TODAY IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED
TO ERODE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB.

BORIS HAS JOGGED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/7 KT. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD WESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BORIS TO TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST. LATER...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
STEER BORIS SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...
UKMET...AND FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE 18Z NOGAPS SOLUTION...WHICH
SHOWS LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IS DISCOUNTED.

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO COOL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
2 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
CLOSELY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF BORIS MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SSTS WOULD DECREASE QUICKER WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE THAN INDICATED BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.5N 125.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.9N 126.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 16.4N 128.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 16.8N 129.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.6N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z 15.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Another atempt to show an eye feature.

[RL3AO]

There are three things certain in life. Death, taxes, and Boris developing an eye at night.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricane Boris
10pm pst
7-1-2008


Winds 80 mph
Pressure 988 millibars
Movement west-northwest at 8 knots
Location 15.4/125.8

Boris becomes a hurricane again...

Boris has once again developed a clearly defined eye, in fact the system looks slightly better then last night. Also advance cimss shows 3.8 at the moment, with 5.1 on its other channels. We are putting it at 4.2t at the moment. This is based on a well defined eye and banding futures.


Shear is around 11-12 knots, which is not super favorable. But overall boris has done very well with in it. In we don't expect to much of a increase in overall shear over the next 24-36 hours. In fact as the weakness moves to its north over the next 6-12 hours; Boris could find its self in favorable upper level enviroment once again, but on the otherhand the system should be entering cooler sst's, that the system is now crossing into. So a weaking is very likely after 24-30 hours.


Boris is forecasted to move west-northwest between 280-300 degree's off west during the next 36-48 hours. This is being caused by a weakness inside the subtropical high pressure to its north. Models then forecast the ridge to reform after 36 hours, but they have been to strong throughout the forecast period, so most likely the system will only turn slighly more "westward" inside of the forecast period.


forecast
0 15.4/125.8 70 knots
6 15.6/126.5 75 knots
12 15.8/127.7 65 knots
24 16.2/128.8 55 knots
36 16.4/129.2 40 knots


[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

I would have to disagree that it's 70 kt.

A few factors I've taken into consideration:
The intensity of the cloud tops, which only show a small burst of about -75C, the rest are -70C or weaker:


Furthermore, at 0200z on the microwave it was still struggling to close off the eye, and I doubt that in the three hours since, it's managed to do that.


However, I agree it's a hurricane, probably 65 kts.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn.jpg

I agree Chacor, but it is now looking very classic. It is now most likely near 70-75 knots.

[Chacor]

Yeah, definitely looks solid now and the eye has apparently managed to clear out. ATCF at 06z said 65 kts so I think the NHC will go with 65 kts first and see if the eye persists or whether, like the past few days, it dies off again in the morning.

[Chacor]

WTPZ32 KNHC 020826
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

...BORIS A HURRICANE AGAIN...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1185 MILES
...1905 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
BORIS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...126.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTPZ42 KNHC 020830
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE EYE OF BORIS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED
IN SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT BORIS LOOKS
EVEN STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY...
THE INTENSITY WILL ONLY BE BUMPED BACK UP TO 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
CYCLONE IS PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVELY
MIXING ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

BORIS IS CONTINUING A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER...FORCING THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE
STORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER IN A FEW DAYS...MEANING THE
SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGING.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF BORIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY
FAST DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS NO LONGER
PARALLELING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
AND INSTEAD MOVING INTO THE COLDER WATER QUICKLY. ALL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH
RELATIVELY RAPIDLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. IF
BORIS DOES NOT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 15.9N 126.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 16.4N 127.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 16.9N 128.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 17.1N 129.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.7N 133.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

What's up with Boris!!! Impressive.

[KWT]

Well we now have tropical storm Boris as it has weakened a little, still a fairly stubborn little storm this one, whats the odds of the eye coming back again!

Haha well there you go in the end it has reformed the eye, this reminds me so much of Epsilon with it constantly staying stronger then progged.

Eye is pretty clear right now and may also be once again fairly close to Annular (just got two weak bands) also the eyewall still looks a touch weak on the northern side as well.

[HURAKAN]

Tenacious Boris is not giving up. Not just yet.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2008 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 16:04:54 N Lon : 126:42:21 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 972.5mb/ 90.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 5.1 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 36 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -51.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


That is incredible what this system has done in its life as a cyclone.Maybe it will get close to Hawaii?

[KWT]

Woah 5.0, probably because of the very good looking eye this system has, well if thats the case they will probably have to up the winds by a good deal, whether or not they will go that high is another matter mind you and it may not last that long at that strength given the northern eyewall is just about hanging in there.