Tropical Depression Cristina in EPAC
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HURAKAN
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WTPZ43 KNHC 282030
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVEMENT
AND BELIEVABLE 40 KT WINDS RETRIEVED FROM A 1402Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CALLING FOR
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CRISTINA...AND
ULTIMATELY...TO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS...UKM AND
ECMWF...ARE INDICATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH TIME.
APPARENTLY...THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE REFLECTION IN THE
FIELDS AND AN OBVIOUS INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS AND IS
NUDGED CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL. THESE MODELS PAINT
A MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM.
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 14.6N 125.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 14.7N 126.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.9N 128.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 132.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WTPZ43 KNHC 282030
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVEMENT
AND BELIEVABLE 40 KT WINDS RETRIEVED FROM A 1402Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CALLING FOR
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CRISTINA...AND
ULTIMATELY...TO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS...UKM AND
ECMWF...ARE INDICATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH TIME.
APPARENTLY...THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE REFLECTION IN THE
FIELDS AND AN OBVIOUS INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS AND IS
NUDGED CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL. THESE MODELS PAINT
A MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM.
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 14.6N 125.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 14.7N 126.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.9N 128.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 132.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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HURAKAN
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WTPZ33 KNHC 282030
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
...TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1165 MILES...1875 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...125.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 282030
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
...TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1165 MILES...1875 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...125.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristina in EPAC - 2 PM Advisory - 40 knots
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Second % chance of Tropical Storm Cristina becoming a:
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 6% (Increased slightly)
Category 2 Hurricane: 3%
"" 3 "": 1%
"" 4 "": 0.1%
"" 5 "": 0.001%
This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.
I'm thinking the same as yesterday.
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HURAKAN
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WHXX01 KMIA 290043
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080628 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 1800 080629 0600 080629 1800 080630 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 125.7W 15.4N 127.3W 15.9N 129.1W 16.4N 131.1W
BAMD 14.8N 125.7W 15.3N 127.5W 15.6N 129.4W 15.8N 131.5W
BAMM 14.8N 125.7W 15.2N 127.3W 15.4N 129.1W 15.6N 131.1W
LBAR 14.8N 125.7W 15.5N 127.1W 16.3N 129.0W 17.2N 131.1W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 50KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 133.4W 17.3N 138.2W 17.5N 142.3W 17.9N 146.2W
BAMD 15.8N 133.7W 15.4N 138.1W 15.3N 142.2W 16.0N 145.7W
BAMM 15.7N 133.3W 15.7N 137.5W 15.9N 141.5W 16.7N 145.4W
LBAR 18.1N 133.5W 19.8N 137.3W 23.1N 139.3W 29.5N 137.1W
SHIP 41KTS 30KTS 25KTS 21KTS
DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 25KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 125.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 123.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 122.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 135NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 290043
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080628 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 1800 080629 0600 080629 1800 080630 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 125.7W 15.4N 127.3W 15.9N 129.1W 16.4N 131.1W
BAMD 14.8N 125.7W 15.3N 127.5W 15.6N 129.4W 15.8N 131.5W
BAMM 14.8N 125.7W 15.2N 127.3W 15.4N 129.1W 15.6N 131.1W
LBAR 14.8N 125.7W 15.5N 127.1W 16.3N 129.0W 17.2N 131.1W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 50KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 133.4W 17.3N 138.2W 17.5N 142.3W 17.9N 146.2W
BAMD 15.8N 133.7W 15.4N 138.1W 15.3N 142.2W 16.0N 145.7W
BAMM 15.7N 133.3W 15.7N 137.5W 15.9N 141.5W 16.7N 145.4W
LBAR 18.1N 133.5W 19.8N 137.3W 23.1N 139.3W 29.5N 137.1W
SHIP 41KTS 30KTS 25KTS 21KTS
DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 25KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 125.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 123.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 122.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 135NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristina in EPAC
The burst is helping Cristina to get a little stronger now up to 45kts.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristina in EPAC
WTPZ43 KNHC 290245
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CRISTINA HAS MAINTAINED
TIGHT BANDING AND MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE A CIMSS MICROWAVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 50
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
CRISTINA'S CURRENT MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED BY A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF
TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT...CAUSING A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SHOULD BE STEERED DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH UNREALISTICALLY HAS CRISTINA BECOME
STATIONARY AND THEN ABSORBED BY BORIS.
DESPITE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CRISTINA DURING THE DAY...IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. IN
FACT...THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES. THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE QUITE MARGINAL WITH SSTS
AT 26C NOW AND COOLING TO 24C IN TWO DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.9N 126.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 127.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 14.6N 133.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0000Z 14.5N 141.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/RHOME
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CRISTINA HAS MAINTAINED
TIGHT BANDING AND MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE A CIMSS MICROWAVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 50
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
CRISTINA'S CURRENT MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED BY A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF
TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT...CAUSING A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SHOULD BE STEERED DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH UNREALISTICALLY HAS CRISTINA BECOME
STATIONARY AND THEN ABSORBED BY BORIS.
DESPITE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CRISTINA DURING THE DAY...IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. IN
FACT...THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES. THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE QUITE MARGINAL WITH SSTS
AT 26C NOW AND COOLING TO 24C IN TWO DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.9N 126.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 127.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 14.6N 133.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0000Z 14.5N 141.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/RHOME
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristina in EPAC
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290830
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
AFTER REACHING AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KT LATE SATURDAY...CRISTINA HAS
WEAKENED. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR
STORM CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATES
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. CRISTINA IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND IS APPROACHING MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REGENERATE SIGNIFICANTLY...CRISTINA MAY
LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
STORM IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AT AROUND 8 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CRISTINA OR
ITS REMNANT SHOULD PRODUCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR JUST
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 14.6N 126.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 128.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 14.4N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0600Z 14.2N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ43 KNHC 290830
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
AFTER REACHING AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KT LATE SATURDAY...CRISTINA HAS
WEAKENED. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR
STORM CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATES
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. CRISTINA IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND IS APPROACHING MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REGENERATE SIGNIFICANTLY...CRISTINA MAY
LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
STORM IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AT AROUND 8 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CRISTINA OR
ITS REMNANT SHOULD PRODUCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR JUST
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 14.6N 126.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 128.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 14.4N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0600Z 14.2N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Cristina in EPAC
Down to 35kts.
WHXX01 KMIA 291250
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080629 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 1200 080630 0000 080630 1200 080701 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 127.2W 15.0N 128.9W 15.4N 131.1W 16.0N 133.5W
BAMD 14.5N 127.2W 14.6N 129.4W 14.5N 132.0W 14.3N 134.8W
BAMM 14.5N 127.2W 14.5N 129.2W 14.5N 131.7W 14.6N 134.3W
LBAR 14.5N 127.2W 14.7N 128.9W 15.1N 130.9W 15.7N 133.4W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 30KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 30KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 1200 080703 1200 080704 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 136.1W 17.7N 141.0W 18.6N 144.7W 19.3N 148.0W
BAMD 14.0N 137.8W 12.9N 143.3W 12.5N 147.7W 13.2N 150.5W
BAMM 14.7N 137.0W 14.5N 141.5W 14.8N 145.0W 15.7N 147.4W
LBAR 16.3N 136.0W 17.5N 140.7W 18.9N 143.8W 21.1N 145.8W
SHIP 22KTS 15KTS 19KTS 21KTS
DSHP 22KTS 15KTS 19KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 127.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 125.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 124.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 35NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 291250
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080629 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 1200 080630 0000 080630 1200 080701 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 127.2W 15.0N 128.9W 15.4N 131.1W 16.0N 133.5W
BAMD 14.5N 127.2W 14.6N 129.4W 14.5N 132.0W 14.3N 134.8W
BAMM 14.5N 127.2W 14.5N 129.2W 14.5N 131.7W 14.6N 134.3W
LBAR 14.5N 127.2W 14.7N 128.9W 15.1N 130.9W 15.7N 133.4W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 30KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 30KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 1200 080703 1200 080704 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 136.1W 17.7N 141.0W 18.6N 144.7W 19.3N 148.0W
BAMD 14.0N 137.8W 12.9N 143.3W 12.5N 147.7W 13.2N 150.5W
BAMM 14.7N 137.0W 14.5N 141.5W 14.8N 145.0W 15.7N 147.4W
LBAR 16.3N 136.0W 17.5N 140.7W 18.9N 143.8W 21.1N 145.8W
SHIP 22KTS 15KTS 19KTS 21KTS
DSHP 22KTS 15KTS 19KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 127.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 125.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 124.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 35NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM
$$
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1290 MILES...2075 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.5 N...127.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1290 MILES...2075 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.5 N...127.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES
INDICATE CRISTINA AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH...A STRONG DIURNAL BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER OF CRISTINA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY KEEPS
CRISTINA AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
CRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE AIR
MASS AND OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL BUILDING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF CRISTINA...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE CRISTINA IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.4N 129.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 131.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.2N 133.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/1200Z 14.0N 135.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES
INDICATE CRISTINA AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH...A STRONG DIURNAL BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER OF CRISTINA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY KEEPS
CRISTINA AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
CRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE AIR
MASS AND OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL BUILDING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF CRISTINA...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE CRISTINA IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.4N 129.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 131.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.2N 133.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/1200Z 14.0N 135.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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