Tropical Depression Cristina in EPAC

[KWT]

Well looking at that it probably is still hanging onto tropical storm status with that area of convection on the western side, eastern side of the circulation does look wel lexposed now.

[HURAKAN]

Not dying soon!!!

[KWT]

Thats really interesting actually Hurakan if that convection can just find its way a little further east then we may see some short term strengthening because that convection is pretty deep!

[HURAKAN]

But the visible tells the real story.

[KWT]

Yep but you can see if you only had IR it be hard to know that this is actually a really sheared system.

[cycloneye]

Still is a tropical storm.

WHXX01 KMIA 291837
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 1800 080630 0600 080630 1800 080701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 127.9W 14.8N 129.8W 15.3N 132.2W 15.8N 135.0W
BAMD 14.4N 127.9W 14.6N 130.4W 14.6N 133.2W 14.7N 136.0W
BAMM 14.4N 127.9W 14.4N 130.2W 14.5N 132.8W 14.6N 135.7W
LBAR 14.4N 127.9W 14.7N 129.7W 15.1N 131.9W 15.8N 134.4W
SHIP 35KTS 32KTS 30KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 30KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800 080704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 137.9W 17.0N 143.0W 17.3N 146.8W 17.9N 150.5W
BAMD 14.4N 138.9W 13.8N 144.3W 13.6N 147.8W 15.7N 149.8W
BAMM 14.5N 138.4W 14.1N 143.3W 14.2N 146.8W 15.6N 149.7W
LBAR 16.3N 137.0W 17.5N 141.6W 18.9N 144.1W 21.9N 145.9W
SHIP 23KTS 17KTS 21KTS 23KTS
DSHP 23KTS 17KTS 21KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 127.9W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 126.4W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 125.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$

[HURAKAN]

Looks better now.

[KWT]

Yep that convection has managed to push back over the center again, so should hold steady at least for a little while, indeed if it can keep that up may see it get back upto 40kts again.

[HURAKAN]

780
WTPZ33 KNHC 292036
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...CRISTINA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1345 MILES...2165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...128.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

543
WTPZ43 KNHC 292037
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE CRISTINA HAS BECOME
INTERMITTENTLY PARTLY EXPOSED DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE CYCLONE INSISTS UPON REMAINING AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND
ICON MODELS. CRISTINA IS MOVING WITHIN A DRYER MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A STRENGTHENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE EVOLVING LARGE SCALE
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.4N 128.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.2N 129.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.1N 131.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.0N 134.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1800Z 14.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 14.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[RL3AO]

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A STRENGTHENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE EVOLVING LARGE SCALE
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

Someone forgot to proof read.

[HURAKAN]

Two forecasters, one error!!!!

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

C(h)ristina has been misspelled in the TWD as well. Maybe they should change the spelling to its common term in 2014?

Cristina is the normal spelling in Spanish. As EPAC storms are far more likely to affect Mexico than any other country, I think Spanish spellings are especially appropriate on that list and don't think it would be a good idea to change to the English spelling.

(Although I also don't think it's a good idea that they have Cristina in the EPAC list and Cristobal in the Atlantic list for the same year. This could be confusing if there is ever a year sometime in the future when both of those names are used at about the same time.)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2353 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL STORM CHRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 128.4W...OR ABOUT
1345 WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 29/2100 UTC MOVING W AT
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IS
NOW TUCKED BACK UNDERNEATH VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING
OF NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S AND SW OF THE CENTER AND
SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM ON THE NW QUADRANT. CRISTINA IS
BEGUN TO RUN INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND HAS LESS ABILITY TO
RECOVER FROM THE SHEAR. CRISTINA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW LATE MON.
______________

Misspellings continue.

[HURAKAN]

Cristina not giving in.

[Chacor]

Does the spelling of the storm matter that much? This TWD was updated to reflect the change in Boris. They aren't going to look through the other paragraphs to spot a minor typo.

[HURAKAN]

It doesn't matter that much but there is no need to have storm names being misspelled.

[cycloneye]

30/0000 UTC 14.3N 129.2W T2.5/2.5 CRISTINA -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 300105
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080630 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080630 0000 080630 1200 080701 0000 080701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 128.7W 14.7N 130.6W 15.1N 133.0W 15.4N 135.6W
BAMD 14.3N 128.7W 14.3N 131.3W 14.4N 134.1W 14.3N 136.9W
BAMM 14.3N 128.7W 14.4N 131.0W 14.6N 133.6W 14.7N 136.2W
LBAR 14.3N 128.7W 14.4N 130.7W 15.0N 133.1W 15.6N 135.8W
SHIP 40KTS 38KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 40KTS 38KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080702 0000 080703 0000 080704 0000 080705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 138.3W 16.0N 143.4W 15.5N 147.4W 15.5N 151.4W
BAMD 14.0N 139.7W 13.3N 145.1W 13.1N 148.5W 14.7N 150.4W
BAMM 14.8N 138.8W 14.5N 143.9W 14.0N 147.6W 14.9N 150.6W
LBAR 16.1N 138.6W 16.9N 143.8W 17.6N 147.0W 17.6N 149.0W
SHIP 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS 20KTS
DSHP 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 128.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 127.1W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 125.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM

[cycloneye]

331
WTPZ43 KNHC 300242
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE CENTER OF CRISTINA HAS TUCKED WELL UNDERNEATH THE CANOPY OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO A 3.0
FROM TAFB AND REMAINED A 2.5 FROM SAB. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE VECTORS WITH ONE OF
40 KT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT. THE ASCAT
OBSERVATIONS ALSO ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 34 KT WIND RADII.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT 265/8. A CONTINUATION OF
JUST-SOUTH-OF-DUE-WESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FROM
THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF CRISTINA
IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
CRISTINA WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED ALONG BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THIS EVENING AND THE
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WHILE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPINGING UPON CRISTINA...THE MAIN
INHIBITING FACTORS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ARE THE RATHER COOL
WATERS AND STABLE AIRMASS. SLOW DECAY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
THEREAFTER. THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.3N 129.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 14.1N 130.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 13.9N 133.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 13.7N 135.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 13.6N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0000Z 13.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN