Tropical Depression Cristina in EPAC

[brunota2003]

Has anyone looked at the visible on this? Nice anvils shooting to the east of the Storms.

[Chacor]

Probably gone.

[Chacor]

Down to a 30 kt TD at 12z. Probably gone by the 21z package.

[Category 5]

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye!

[Category 5]

IMO they'll downgrade it to a depression, but I think it's pretty much degenerated to a remnant low.

[Chacor]

30 kts is very generous, imo...

984
WTPZ43 KNHC 301438
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0958Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT CRISTINA
AS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE. 20 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE
LOWERED TO 30 KT.

PERSISTENT SHEAR...A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REDUCE CRISTINA TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
THIS IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
TRMM PASS AND A 0621Z AMSU-B IMAGE...CRISTINA APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CRISTINA TO
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
PRODUCED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.3N 131.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.2N 132.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 13.8N 134.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 13.6N 136.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 13.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[Category 5]

Shocked that the forecast keeps it alive for 24 hours.

[Category 5]

Naked swirl.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080630 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 131.7W 14.2N 133.8W 14.3N 136.0W 14.4N 138.2W
BAMD 14.0N 131.7W 13.9N 134.0W 13.7N 136.4W 13.5N 138.8W
BAMM 14.0N 131.7W 14.0N 134.0W 13.8N 136.4W 13.6N 138.7W
LBAR 14.0N 131.7W 14.1N 133.9W 14.3N 136.3W 14.9N 138.9W
SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS 26KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 1800 080704 1800 080705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 140.4W 15.0N 145.0W 15.8N 149.9W 17.1N 155.5W
BAMD 13.5N 140.9W 14.3N 144.0W 16.3N 146.3W 18.7N 148.4W
BAMM 13.5N 140.8W 13.8N 144.4W 14.8N 147.8W 16.3N 151.3W
LBAR 15.5N 141.3W 17.1N 144.7W 20.0N 147.6W 23.4N 150.8W
SHIP 23KTS 22KTS 25KTS 24KTS
DSHP 23KTS 22KTS 25KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 131.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 129.7W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 127.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Adiós Cristina, te veo en el 2014. See you in 2014.

[CrazyC83]

Will they kill the storm off at 2, or will it survive another advisory?

[HURAKAN]

If I was a forecaster in the NHC, I would kill it in the next advisory. Right now it's just a low level vortice without any convection.

[Category 5]

[cycloneye]

Not yet.

188
WTPZ33 KNHC 302036
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1585 MILES...2550 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.0 N...132.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

578
WTPZ43 KNHC 302038
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CRISTINA HAS BEEN
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVENTION FOR CLOSE TO 6 HOURS...AND HAS VIRTUALLY
BECOME A SKELETAL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. A 1451 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
REVEALED 30 KT WINDS WITHIN A THIN RAIN BAND DISPLACED WELL TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED. GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. FURTHER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.0N 132.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 13.8N 133.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.5N 135.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Down to 25 kt but still alive.

[Category 5]

No, it's dead. They're only dragging it on because they're required to wait 12 hours.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1585 MILES...2550 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.0 N...132.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 010234
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.1N 136.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.1N 137.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 133.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

Bye bye Ch...er, Cristina.

[srainhoutx]