Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like douglas maybe able to see soon?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/avn.jpg

[KWT]

Thats really wrapping nicely Matt, I'd guess its developing quite quickly now with some obvious banding now and a tight little circulation in the middle wrapping it all up. I'd say 45kts now and strengthening pretty quickly under favorable conditions.

[HURAKAN]

The intensity of the convection has decreased since this morning.

[KWT]

That is true Hurakan however its structure has really improved in a big way!
I suspect we shall see the NHC forecast will increase the intensity next forecast.

[HURAKAN]

This morning:



Now:

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2008 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 17:30:14 N Lon : 107:46:54 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -50.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.76 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 17:17:59 N Lon: 107:46:47 W

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Hmm upto 3 now then, should expect to see the NHC up the winds a little.

Looking at the loops is it just my eyes playing tricks or does it looks like there is multiple vortexes, or maybe the circulation is still very broad, its hard to tell without high resolution sat.imagery I have tto admit!

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042008) 20080702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 108.2W 18.9N 108.6W 19.7N 109.6W 20.3N 110.9W
BAMD 18.0N 108.2W 18.8N 109.4W 19.4N 110.9W 19.9N 112.5W
BAMM 18.0N 108.2W 19.0N 109.0W 19.7N 110.3W 20.2N 112.0W
LBAR 18.0N 108.2W 19.0N 109.2W 19.9N 110.6W 20.8N 112.3W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS 40KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800 080707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 112.7W 20.3N 116.4W 19.1N 119.6W 18.2N 121.9W
BAMD 20.4N 114.4W 20.6N 118.9W 20.7N 123.6W 21.7N 127.8W
BAMM 20.5N 114.0W 20.4N 118.7W 20.1N 123.3W 20.4N 127.7W
LBAR 21.7N 114.0W 23.5N 117.7W 25.4N 121.1W 27.6N 123.6W
SHIP 34KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 108.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 107.1W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 106.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Hmm so they are holding at 35kts then, also now not progging it to get above 40kts so probably going to stay as a weak tropical storm, may have taken too long in getting going it seems!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 022039
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DOUGLAS HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS TOPS HAVE WARMED AND A LONE BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SEVERAL
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES TODAY REVEAL THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT BROAD AND SPRAWLING. IN THE OUTER RAINBAND THAT CAME
ASHORE NEAR MANZANILLO...A COUPLE REPORTS OF WINDS OF 30-35 KT WERE
RECEIVED... ONE FROM THE OBSERVATION SITE AT MANZANILLO AND ONE
FROM A SHIP LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DOUGLAS HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEGREE C. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY. THEREAFTER... DOUGLAS SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/7. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH DOUGLAS FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH NOW
KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 18.1N 108.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 109.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 20.6N 112.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 21.2N 113.8W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.2N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Very unimpressive. Convection south of the center.

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 030231
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.4N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 110.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 112.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 030248
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

DOUGLAS HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING...WITH THE BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF THE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT
FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER REPORTED 33 KT AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 20 KT
OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTER AT THIS
TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. DOUGLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BECOME
ORIENTED EAST-WEST NORTH OF DOUGLAS DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR. THIS
EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TO
BECOME A WESTERLY MOTION BEFORE DOUGLAS DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR DOUGLAS OR ITS
REMAINS TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST AFTER 72 HR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

DOUGLAS SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HR AND MOVE OVER
COOLER WATER THEREAFTER. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN FROM THIS POINT ON. SINCE DOUGLAS
HAS ONE MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C
ISOTHERM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE FIRST 12 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
96 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
PREVENTS ANY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND DOUGLAS DISSIPATES FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 18.8N 109.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 19.4N 109.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 110.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 20.7N 112.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Very generous. I would have dropped it to a TD.

[KWT]

Its current structure reminds me again on Boris when it got hit by that shear, agreed it does look a little bit of a mess right now and I suspect is having a hard time staying at 35kts.

[Chacor]

WTPZ24 KNHC 030843
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.1N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 112.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 113.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

It's all downhill from here.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 030854
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

DOUGLAS IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMING APART. A SERIES OF PASSIVE
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
OFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 330/8...WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN
STEADILY DYING OFF. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT ABOUT 0500 UTC STILL
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS GENERATING SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING AT THAT
TIME...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE
RECENT RAPID DECLINE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS DOUGLAS
WILL BE A DEPRESSION SHORTLY...AND IT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP
SOON. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.6N 109.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 109.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 112.1W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 113.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

This is not a tropical storm, much less a tropical depression.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD

016
WHXX01 KMIA 031220
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC THU JUL 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042008) 20080703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 0000 080704 1200 080705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 109.3W 20.7N 110.2W 21.4N 111.7W 21.9N 113.5W
BAMD 19.8N 109.3W 20.7N 110.7W 21.5N 112.3W 22.3N 114.3W
BAMM 19.8N 109.3W 20.8N 110.5W 21.5N 112.2W 22.2N 114.4W
LBAR 19.8N 109.3W 20.8N 110.3W 21.9N 111.7W 23.1N 113.2W
SHIP 30KTS 26KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080705 1200 080706 1200 080707 1200 080708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 115.8W 21.4N 120.0W 20.6N 123.5W 20.0N 126.2W
BAMD 23.0N 116.4W 24.3N 120.3W 25.5N 123.6W 26.3N 126.0W
BAMM 22.4N 117.0W 22.7N 122.2W 22.9N 127.3W 23.8N 131.8W
LBAR 24.3N 114.8W 27.1N 117.2W 29.3N 117.5W 29.9N 116.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 109.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.7N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 107.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$