Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[cycloneye]

791
WHXX01 KWBC 111233
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1233 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080711 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080711 1200 080712 0000 080712 1200 080713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 61.8W 29.2N 62.6W 30.3N 62.8W 31.2N 62.5W
BAMD 28.3N 61.8W 29.5N 62.6W 30.6N 63.0W 31.5N 62.7W
BAMM 28.3N 61.8W 29.3N 62.6W 30.4N 63.0W 31.4N 62.9W
LBAR 28.3N 61.8W 29.4N 62.2W 30.4N 62.4W 31.4N 62.4W
SHIP 75KTS 77KTS 78KTS 77KTS
DSHP 75KTS 77KTS 78KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200 080716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 62.4W 31.8N 62.9W 30.9N 61.7W 30.6N 56.8W
BAMD 31.6N 62.3W 30.9N 61.8W 30.1N 59.0W 29.4N 53.6W
BAMM 31.5N 63.0W 30.9N 63.0W 29.4N 60.6W 29.3N 54.4W
LBAR 32.3N 62.1W 34.5N 61.0W 38.3N 60.2W 43.1N 57.9W
SHIP 77KTS 68KTS 64KTS 62KTS
DSHP 77KTS 68KTS 64KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.3N LONCUR = 61.8W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 61.0W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.3N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$

[KWT]

SHIPS are forecasting some slight strengtheing as do some other models, very interesting as the GFS goes into hyperdrive with development compared to its normal self, probably starts to get helped by outsid eprocesses past 72hrs IMO.

By the way the ECM drifts this is a little to the ESE between 96-120hrs then holds it near 60W/30N for 3 days.

[KWT]

Madness:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

Yep thats Bertha!

[JonathanBelles]

They just showed the spaghetti models on the news with half of them taking a complete loop and going west again.

[KWT]

If the upper troughs can't do the job then eventually the upper high is going to try and rebuild again and either trap it or send it back west, it would be crazy if that happened!
Its made even more complicated if the wave off Africa develops as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the upper troughs can't do the job then eventually the upper high is going to try and rebuild again and either trap it or send it back west, it would be crazy if that happened!
Its made even more complicated if the wave off Africa develops as well.

yeah, that would be total madness for the forecasters. Having both Bertha and possibly Cristobal in the picture at the same time and in the same general area of the Atlantic would be a nightmare.

[Aric Dunn]

Arics looks at the CMC and thinks its funny.. and counts 4 systems


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

ok he also looks at gfs and is no longer laughing..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[brunota2003]

ok he also looks at gfs and is no longer laughing..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Notice also, the curve towards the north, bringing the system (hopefully) just north of the islands. That one would be plenty far south to make it across the pond.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL to do a loop?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

INTERESTING, I called a possible loop several days ago. Lets see if other models jump on board.

[Aric Dunn]

this is almost scary.. the nogaps does a loop and from the looks of it.. build the ridge in quitre strong over the western atlantic and the east coast .. which would move bertha west towards NC ... and there is no trough in site.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[storms in NC]

Remember Kyle? The storm stayed out over open water for several weeks, and
appeared to be headed for the North Atlantic at one point. It then
recurved, moved back to the SOUTH, and eventually affected the US coast.

[RL3AO]

Someone mentioned Kyle in another thread. Watching these model runs is getting interesting. Don't think we will get to 89 advisories though.

[storms in NC]

Someone mentioned Kyle in another thread. Watching these model runs is getting interesting. Don't think we will get to 89 advisories though.

Sorry I did. But was talking about Bertha making a loop and I thought I would post this here too. Sorry

[storms in NC]

Someone mentioned Kyle in another thread. Watching these model runs is getting interesting. Don't think we will get to 89 advisories though.

Sorry I did. But was talking about Bertha making a loop and I thought I would post this here too. Sorry

[Extremeweatherguy]

Kyle: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

[KWT]

Yep GFDL has Bertha undertaking a small loop though if the eye remains as large as it that loop probably just look like a wobble!

Will be interesting to see if the loops does happen, Bertha has tried its hand at nearly everything except being a cat-5 (I didn't say cat-4 becuase Sat.estimates may mean this being upgraded post season...) so it wouldn't surprise me if it does a loop!

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS Ensembles...

[gatorcane]

that is about the messy model run I have ever seen lol